|Poll||Date||Sample||Garcia (D)||Rivera (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||43.0||52.1||Rivera +9.1|
|Sunshine State News/VSS||10/25 - 10/26||700 LV||43||44||Rivera +1|
|2008: Diaz-Balart (R) 53%, Garcia (D) 47%||2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 49%|
|2006: Diaz-Balart (R) 59%, Calderin (D) 42%||2004: Bush (R) 56%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Diaz-Balart (R) Unopposed
||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 44%|
10/28/10 -- The Sunshine State poll shows a very, very tight race here, though among the most likely votes, Rivera has a somewhat larger lead. Still, this is not going to be a walk in the park for him, and Garcia could win.
10/26/10 -- No recent polling here, but given the national environment, you have to like Rivera's chances. Democrats insist that Rivera's problems are great enough to swing the district their way, but we are skeptical.
Florida gained two seats in the 2002 redistricting. One of them was hand drawn for House Speaker Tom Feeney. The other was drawn for the chairman of the House Redistricting Committee, Mario Diaz-Balart. Diaz-Balart is the younger brother of Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The elder Diaz-Balart was elected to Congress in 1992, and decided to retire this term. Mario Diaz-Balart, who had a close call in 2008, decided to run in the district his brother was vacating (which is more heavily Cuban), leaving a modestly Republican open seat in the 25th.
The Democrats are rallying behind Joe Garcia, the 2008 nominee and former Democratic Chairman of Miami-Dade County, and former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation. He faces Republican State Rep. David Rivera. If this seat had been open in 2008, Garcia probably would have had a great chance at picking it up, but in this year he will face an especially challenging environment.