|Poll||Date||Sample||Adams (R)||Kosmas (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||59.8||40.2||Adams +19.6|
|2008: Kosmas (D) 57%, Feeney (R) 41%||2008: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 49%|
|2006: Feeney (R) 58%, Curtis (D) 42%||2004: Bush (R) 56%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Feeney (R) Unopposed
||2000: Bush (R) 52%, Gore (D) 46%|
10/26/10 -- Kosmas' polling numbers are truly terrible. It's next-to-impossible for her to turn this around in the next week.
Florida gained two seats in the 2002 redistricting, and one of them was hand drawn for Tom Feeney. The district takes in the affluent suburbs of Orlando, as well as the coastal areas around Cape Canaveral. The area leans toward the Republicans, but not overwhelmingly so – John McCain barely carried the district in 2008.
Suzanne Kosmas defeated Feeney after he was besieged by various ethical allegations. Kosmas made her fiscal conservatism a mainstay of her campaign. But having voted for the stimulus bill and cap and trade, she will probably not have a record that is perceived as particularly fiscally conservative going into the 2010 midterms. Her first vote against the health care package probably provided a much-needed break from her record of voting with the leadership. But Kosmas switched back, and voted for final passage, and, as a result, she may find it difficult to tout her fiscal conservative credentials.
Even to the extent that Kosmas can boost funding for NASA - a critical employer in her district - the GOP should be able to turn that around on Kosmas, claiming that this was a buyoff for her vote. It has really become a no-win situation for her. Kosmas faces state Representative Sandy Adams in the general election, who will probably be able to pull together the resources to give Kosmas a very tough race.