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Delaware At-Large - Carney vs. Urquhart


John Carney

John Carney (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Glen Urquhart

Glen Urquhart (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Delaware Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2006: DE-1
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCarney (D)Urquhart (R)Spread
Final Results----56.841.0Carney +15.8
Monmouth10/25 - 10/271171 LV5144Carney +7
Fairleigh Dickinson10/20 - 10/26797 LV5336Carney +17
Monmouth10/8 - 10/11790 LV5344Carney +9
Fairleigh Dickinson9/27 - 10/3801 LV5136Carney +15
PPP (D)9/11 - 9/12958 LV4837Carney +11
Daily Kos/PPP (D)8/7 - 8/8620 RV4830Carney +18

Previous Election Results

  2008: Castle (R) 61%, Hartley-Nagle (D) 38%   2008: Obama (D) 62%, McCain (R) 37%
  2006: Castle (R) 57%, Spivack (D) 39%   2004: Kerry (D) 53%, Bush (R) 46%
  2004: Castle (R) 70%, Donnelly (D) 30%   2000: Gore (D) 55% Bush (R) 42%

Race Analysis

The First State, so named because of its 1787 sprint to ratifying the Constitution (it beat out Pennsylvania by five days), is a combination of three states. Downstate in Sussex and Kent Counties, there is a distinct Southern flair; this is the area Joe Biden was referring to in 2008 when he famously declared that if Maryland hadn’t been in the way, Delaware would have gone with the South. Wilmington, at the northern tip, offers up a heavily Democratic city for the state.

The rest of the state is the rest of New Castle County: suburbs of Wilmington and, increasingly Philadelphia. Like most Northern suburbs, it swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s and 2002, but it still shows a willingness to vote for moderate Republican candidates. From 1992 through 2008 it did just that, providing the margin of victory for moderate Republican Mike Castle.

Castle, of course, ran for the Senate in 2010, and lost the primary to the more conservative Christine O’Donnell. But he wasn’t the only moderate to lose. Michele Rollins lost her primary for the open House seat to conservative businessman Glen Urquhart. Urquhart will face off against Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Most polling has shown Carney with a lead, but under 50 percent. Urquhart can win in this environment, but Carney starts as the solid favorite.