Connecticut 5th District - Caligiuri vs. Murphy
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Caligiuri (R) | Murphy (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 45.9 | 54.1 | Murphy +8.2 |
| CT Capitol Report/MRG | 10/28 - 10/31 | 911 LV | 52 | 44 | Caligiuri +8 |
| CT Capitol Report/MRG | 10/24 - 10/26 | 595 LV | 47 | 46 | Caligiuri +1 |
| CT Capitol Report/MRG | 10/3 - 10/5 | 481 LV | 50 | 44 | Caligiuri +6 |
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Murphy (D) 59%, Cappiello (R) 39% | 2008: Obama (D) 56%, McCain (R) 42% |
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| 2006: Murphy (D) 57%, Johnson (R) 43% | 2004: Kerry (D) 49.3%, Bush (R) 49% |
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| 2004: Johnson (R) 60%, Gerratana (D) 38% | 2000: Gore (D) 52%, Bush (R) 43% |
Race Analysis
10/24/10 -- The most recent polling shows Murphy trailing Caliguri. This is probably the most Republican district in the state, and it is very much at risk of shifting back to its Republican roots.
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The 5th District is a collection of towns stretching from the state’s western border with New York to the suburbs of Hartford. It includes the bucolic Litchfield Hills and the Farmington River Valley, which tend to vote Republican, as well as heavily Democratic towns like New Britain. Overall the district has a slight Democratic tilt, with a Cook PVI of D+2.
The district was represented by Nancy Johnson, a moderate Republican, from 1982 until 2006. She lost that year to Chris Murphy, a young, ambitious state legislator. Murphy has a reliably liberal voting record, earning a 100 percent vote rating from Americans for Democratic Action. Murphy faces state Senator Sam Caliguri in the general election. If the district follows the national mood against the Democratic Party, this district could be a pickup for the GOP on election night.