|Poll||Date||Sample||Debicella (R)||Himes (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||46.9||53.1||Himes +6.2|
|CT Capitol Report/MRG||10/24 - 10/26||571 LV||48||46||Debicella +2|
|CT Capitol Report/MRG||10/3 - 10/5||411 LV||47||49||Himes +2|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||7/28 - 8/1||400 LV||42||46||Himes +4|
|2008: Himes (D) 51%, Shays (R) 48%||2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 40%
|2006: Shays (R) 51%, Farrell (D) 48%||2004: Kerry (D) 52%, Bush (R) 46%
|2004: Shays (R) 52%, Farrell (D) 48%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%|
10/24/10 -- The polling suggests a very close race, and Debicella has proved to be a capable fundraiser -- a most in this expensive district. This should go down to the wire.
Connecticut’s 4th District is the southwestern portion of the state – and has been so since Connecticut switched from at-large districts to numbered, single-member districts in the 1830s. This district is an odd mish-mash of wealthy New York City exurbs like New Canaan and Greenwich and gritty industrial cities like Bridgeport.
For most of its existence, the district has elected Democrats in only the worst Republican years: 1930, 1958, 1960. The Republicans the district elected weren’t conservative in any modern meaning of the word. They tended to be establishment Republicans, and as the Republican Party became increasingly concerned with social issues, these representatives drifted increasingly out of step with the national Republican Party. Lowell Weicker, who represented the district for a term in 1968 before going on to the Senate, is emblematic of this brand of Republican.
Chris Shays was just this type of Republican. He represented the 4th for 10 terms before finally succumbing to Democrat Jim Himes in the 2008 elections. Himes has voted like a national Democrat, and it may be hurting him as the country focuses increasingly on economic issues. Himes faces state Senator Dan Debicella in the general election.