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Colorado 3rd District - Tipton vs. Salazar


John Salazar

John Salazar (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Scott Tipton

Scott Tipton (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Colorado Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races:
Gov | Sen | CO-4 | CO-7

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate | CO-4
2006: Governor | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSalazar (D)Tipton (R)Spread
Final Results----45.850.1Tipton +4.3
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)10/19 - 10/21400 LV4347Tipton +4
AAF/Ayers (R)8/23 - 8/28400 LV4351Tipton +8

Previous Election Results

  2008: Salazar (D) 62%, Wolf (R) 38%   2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 48%
  2006: Salazar (D) 62%, Tipton (R) 37%   2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 44%
  2004: Salazar (D) 51%, Walcher (R) 47%   2000: Bush (R) 58%, Gore (D) 42%

Race Analysis

10/24/10 --The polling suggests a tight race here.  Early voting in Colorado has seemed to favor the GOP, and Salazar should be nervous.

----------Race Preview---------

Colorado’s 3rd district is the Western Slope of Colorado. This was traditionally Democratic territory, with unionized miners lining up with the party. Democrats held the seat from 1908 through 1942.

In the 1940s, it began to swing toward the Republicans, and has been swing territory ever since. But as the rural areas have become increasingly dissatisfied with the party of Roosevelt, the ski resort areas have become havens for upper class liberals, maintaining the uneasy balance in the district.

In 2004, Democrat John Salazar, brother of the current secretary of the interior, won the seat. It was a low-turnout affair that had as much to do with debates over arcane issues like water rights as it did over ideology. Salazar has compiled a mostly moderate record in Congress, but this session he has backed much of the Obama administration’s agenda, including two votes for the health care bill. In a district that John McCain narrowly carried in 2008, that is a dangerous record. His opponent is his 2006 opponent, Scott Tipton. Tipton lost by 25 points in 2006, but this is obviously not 2006.