|Poll||Date||Sample||Salazar (D)||Tipton (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||45.8||50.1||Tipton +4.3|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/19 - 10/21||400 LV||43||47||Tipton +4|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/23 - 8/28||400 LV||43||51||Tipton +8|
|2008: Salazar (D) 62%, Wolf (R) 38%||2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 48%|
|2006: Salazar (D) 62%, Tipton (R) 37%||2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Salazar (D) 51%, Walcher (R) 47%||2000: Bush (R) 58%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/24/10 --The polling suggests a tight race here. Early voting in Colorado has seemed to favor the GOP, and Salazar should be nervous.
Colorado’s 3rd district is the Western Slope of Colorado. This was traditionally Democratic territory, with unionized miners lining up with the party. Democrats held the seat from 1908 through 1942.
In the 1940s, it began to swing toward the Republicans, and has been swing territory ever since. But as the rural areas have become increasingly dissatisfied with the party of Roosevelt, the ski resort areas have become havens for upper class liberals, maintaining the uneasy balance in the district.
In 2004, Democrat John Salazar, brother of the current secretary of the interior, won the seat. It was a low-turnout affair that had as much to do with debates over arcane issues like water rights as it did over ideology. Salazar has compiled a mostly moderate record in Congress, but this session he has backed much of the Obama administration’s agenda, including two votes for the health care bill. In a district that John McCain narrowly carried in 2008, that is a dangerous record. His opponent is his 2006 opponent, Scott Tipton. Tipton lost by 25 points in 2006, but this is obviously not 2006.