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California 11th District - Harmer vs. McNerney


David Harmer

David Harmer (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jerry McNerney

Jerry McNerney (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

California Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races:
Governor | Senate | CA-3 | CA-18 | CA-20 | CA-45 | CA-47

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2008: President | CA-4
2006: Governor | CA-4 | CA-11
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHarmer (R)McNerney (D)Spread
Final Results----46.948.0McNerney +1.1
SurveyUSA10/8 - 10/11624 LV4842Harmer +6
AAF/Ayers (R)8/23 - 8/28400 LV4544Harmer +1

Previous Election Results

  2008: McNerney (D) 55%, Andal (R) 45%   2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 44%
  2006: McNerney (D) 53%, Pombo (R) 47%   2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 45%
  2004: Pombo (R) 61%, McNerney (D) 39%   2000: Bush (R) 52%, Gore (D) 44%

Race Analysis

10/24/10 --Two polls in a row show Harmer leading McNerney.  This is really bad news for the incumbent.

----------Race Preview---------

The 11th Congressional district is a misshapen amalgamation of precincts stretching across central California. It resembles a hammerhead shark, viewed from the top, making a sharp left U-turn. The population base of the district is in San Joaquin county, centered on the cities of Stockton and Lodi. A salient from the neighboring 18th District extends northward to take in the most heavily Democratic portions of Stockton, leaving the portions in the 18th fairly Republican. The “head” of the shark cuts a “T” across Contra Costa, Alamdeda, and Santa Clara counties. The precincts here are more heavily Democratic, but they are still relatively centrist by California standards. In essence, the 11th serves to take swing counties from the 10th, turning the 10th into a Democratic bastion.

In 2006, Jerry McNerney swept longtime incumbent Richard Pombo out of office. McNerney wasn’t supposed to win, but rode the wave to a close win. In 2008, McNerney survived a game challenge from Dean Andal. It was simply not the right year to be a Republican running in California, and McNerney won 55 percent to 45 percent.
2010 is a likely different year altogether. The area is among the most heavily foreclosed-upon in the country, and the economy is flailing here. The anger that many residents felt toward the Bush administration is now turning against the Obama administration. McNerney faces attorney David Harmer in the general election. Harmer held John Garamendi to a surprisingly narrow 10-point win in the neighboring 10th district late last year and has an excellent chance to improve upon that performance in this narrowly Republican district.