|Poll||Date||Sample||Mitchell (D)||Schweikert (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||43.2||52.0||Schweikert +8.8|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/12 - 10/14||408 LV||42||45||Schweikert +3|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/25 - 8/29||400 LV||44||50||Schweikert +6|
|2008: Mitchell (D) 53%, Schweikert (R) 44%||2008: McCain (R) 52%, Obama (D) 47%|
|2006: Mitchell (D) 50%, Hayworth (R) 46%||2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 45%|
|2004: Hayworth (R) 60%, Rogers (R) 38%||2000: Bush (R) 53%, Gore (D) 43%|
10/24/10 --Even Mitchell's own polling shows him under 50 percent, and the public polling shows him trailing. He's in deep trouble here.
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District was created when the old 6th District was split roughly in two in 2002. It covers the northeastern portions of Maricopa County, including Tempe and Scottsdale. The 5th is Republican, but not overwhelmingly so; many of its wealthy inhabitants cast their ballot for Barack Obama, who nearly carried the district.
Harry Mitchell represents the 5th. He defeated J.D. Hayworth in the Democratic landslide of 2006, and held on by nine points against former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert in 2008. Mitchell’s voting record has generally been among the most conservative for Democrats.
Still, Mitchell faces the same problem that many first- and second- term Democrats face: The wind is no longer at their backs and a Democratic administration has forced them to cast votes in favor of liberal policies that never would have come up under a Republican president. Mitchell will face off again his 2008 opponent, David Schweikert. Schweikert held Mitchell to 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and this is a very different year than 2008.