|Poll||Date||Sample||Hulburd (D)||Quayle (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||41.1||52.2||Quayle +11.1|
|Daily Kos/PPP (D)||10/16 - 10/17||655 LV||46||44||Hulburd +2|
|2008: Shadegg (R) 54%, Lord (D) 42%||2008: McCain (R) 56%, Obama (D) 42%|
|2006: Shadegg (R) 59%, Paine (D) 38%||2004: Bush (R) 58%, Kerry (D) 41%|
|2004: Shadegg (R) 80%, Yannone (L) 20%||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/24/10 -- Democratic polling firm PPP, polling for the liberal website Daily Kos, finds a surprisingly close race in the 3rd district. Quayle may have taken on more water than initially expected as a result of his affiliation with the raunchy website "The Dirty." Quayle is probably hoping for a narrow win, and then for a favorable redrawing of his district.
The 3rd District is the lineal descendent of a district created in 1972 to take in the burgeoning Phoenix suburbs. Today there are several such districts, and the 3rd District is confined to northern Phoenix and the Paradise Valley suburbs. It is a Republican district – having given George W. Bush 58 percent of the vote in 2004 and John McCain 56 percent in 2008 – but is not overwhelmingly so.
The areas covering the bulk of the 3rd District have been represented by conservative Republican John Shadegg since 1994. Shadegg made noises about retiring in 2008, but Republican leaders, fearful about losing the seat, convinced him to stay in the race. Their fears appear to have been well-grounded; Shadegg defeated Democrat Bob Lord by an unimpressive 54-42 margin.
Shadegg made good on his threats to retire this year, but 2010 is shaping up to be a very different year. Ben Quayle, son of the former vice president, emerged the winner of a crowded primary field. He will face off against Democratic attorney Jon Hurlburd, who has also seen some success on the fundraising front. Given the fundamentals of the district, however, Hurlburd has a tough fight ahead of him.