|Poll||Date||Sample||Gosar (R)||Kirkpatrick (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||49.7||43.7||Gosar +6.0|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/25 - 9/30||403 LV||46||39||Gosar +7|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/25 - 8/29||400 LV||47||41||Gosar +6|
|2008: Kirkpatrick (D) 56%, Hay (R) 39%||2008: McCain (R) 54%, Obama (D) 44%|
|2006: Renzi (R) 52%, Simon (D) 43%||2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 45%|
|2004: Renzi (R) 59%, Babbitt (D) 36%||2000: Bush (R) 50%, Gore (D) 45%|
10/6/10 -- Two polls, one conducted by a Republican pollster and one conducted by a Democratic pollster, show Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick averaging 40 percent. Obviously that is a terrible position for an incumbent to find herself in 30 days before an election. She's in real trouble against dentist Paul Gosar.
Arizona’s Republican Party began, like most Republican parties in states settled by southerners, in the urban and suburban portions of the state. It subsequently spread out to the more rural portions of the state, and by the 1960s, the party was dominant throughout the state, save for the heavily Hispanic areas in the southwest.
The 1st Congressional District covers much of the northeastern portions of the state. It is a massive district, covering cities like Flagstaff and Prescott, although half of the district is rural. The large “cutout” in the northern portion of the state represents the Hopi Indian reservation, which is placed in the 2nd District because of longstanding disputes between the Hopi and the Navajo (who remain in the 1st). The district tilts Republican, although it was designed to be a “fair fight” district.
Rick Renzi represented the 1st from its creation (it was split off from what is now the 5th District in 2002), but retired in 2008 under the weight of scandals. The Democrats nominated Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented a heavily Native American district in the state House despite her Caucasian heritage. Kirkpatrick dispatched conservative activist Sidney Hay by 17 points in the general election.
This cycle looks more difficult for Kirkpatrick. The winds are not blowing with the Democrats nearly as heavily as they were in 2008, and Kirkpatrick has compiled a generally liberal voting record, which might be too much for this centrist district. She will face dentist Paul Gosar, a political newcomer who is fairly conservative. But, in a year like this one, that might not be a problem.