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Arkansas 2nd District - Griffin vs. Elliott


Joyce Elliott

Joyce Elliott (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tim Griffin

Tim Griffin (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arkansas Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: 
Governor | Senate | AR-1 | AR-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleElliott (D)Griffin (R)Spread
Final Results----38.357.9Griffin +19.6
Talk Business Poll10/14 - 10/14446 LV3850Griffin +12
Talk Business Poll8/17 - 8/17716 LV3552Griffin +17

Race Analysis

10/24/10 -- Polling suggests that Elliott faces an uphill climb toward becoming Arkansas' first African American represetentative.  Unless something changes dramatically in the next few days, this is probably going to be a Republican pickup.

----------Race Preview---------

Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District is based around Little Rock and its suburbs. The only truly urban area of the state, it was also the first area to move toward the Republicans (outside of the historically Republican Ozark Mountains). It elected a Republican from 1978 through 1984, and nearly did so again in 1996, even as Bill Clinton was carrying the district handily.

Since 1996 the district has been represented by Democrat Vic Snyder. Snyder compiled a fairly liberal voting record, and rarely received more than 60 percent of the vote in this district. On the heels of votes for cap-and-trade legislation and health care reform, Public Policy Polling showed Snyder leading former United States Attorney Tim Griffin by only a point, 44-43.

Snyder promptly retired. Griffin won his primary, while the Democrats nominated state Senator Joyce Elliott. Elliott has a pretty liberal voting record, and more to the point, had only a third of Griffin’s cash-on-hand at the end of the second fundraising quarter.

Previous Election Results

  2008: Snyder (D) 77%, McFarland (G) 23%   2008: McCain (R) 54%, Obama (D) 4%
  2006: Snyder (D) 61%, Mayberry (R) 39%   2004: Bush (R) 51%, Kerry (D) 48%
  2004: Snyder (D) 58%, Parks (R) 42%   2000: Bush (R) 49%, Gore (D) 48%