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Alabama 2nd District - Roby vs. Bright


Bobby Bright

Bobby Bright (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Martha Roby

Martha Roby (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Alabama Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races:
Governor | Senate | AL-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2006: Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBright (D)Roby (R)Spread
Final Results----48.951.1Roby +2.2

Previous Election Results

  2008: Bright (D) 50%, Love (R) 50%   2008: McCain (R) 63%, Obama (D) 37%
  2006: Everett (R) 70%, James (D) 30%   2004: Bush (R) 66%, Kerry (D) 33%
  2004: Everett (R) 69%, Rogers (R) 30%   2000: Bush (R) 61%, Gore (D) 38%

Race Analysis

Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District takes in roughly the southeastern quadrant of the state. It covers a number of small cities like Dothan and Andalusia, as well as a portion of Montgomery.  Redistricters carefully removed several African American precincts from Montgomery and put them into the 3rd, making the 2nd more Republican.  But there is still a heavy African American presence in counties like Lowndes and Bullock, which makes the district about 31 percent African American.

The 2nd first elected a Republican in 1964, and Republicans held the seat until 2008. That year, the district elected Bobby Bright, a Democrat who served as mayor of Montgomery, and who supposedly toyed with running as both a Republican and Democrat before siding with his current party. Bright defeated Republican Jay Love by about 2,000 votes, aided in large part by a huge African American turnout in support of Obama.

On paper, Bright should be extremely vulnerable, especially since African American turnout is expected to be low vis-à-vis 2008. But Bright has compiled an extremely conservative voting record, having voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and the health care bill. He’s stockpiled money, and has six times the cash-on-hand of his GOP challenger, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, who had a tough primary and runoff. And although the district is reliably Republican at the presidential level, it does elect Democrats at the state and local levels.