|Poll||Date||Sample||Bright (D)||Roby (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||48.9||51.1||Roby +2.2|
|2008: Bright (D) 50%, Love (R) 50%||2008: McCain (R) 63%, Obama (D) 37%|
|2006: Everett (R) 70%, James (D) 30%||2004: Bush (R) 66%, Kerry (D) 33%|
|2004: Everett (R) 69%, Rogers (R) 30%||2000: Bush (R) 61%, Gore (D) 38%|
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District takes in roughly the southeastern quadrant of the state. It covers a number of small cities like Dothan and Andalusia, as well as a portion of Montgomery. Redistricters carefully removed several African American precincts from Montgomery and put them into the 3rd, making the 2nd more Republican. But there is still a heavy African American presence in counties like Lowndes and Bullock, which makes the district about 31 percent African American.
The 2nd first elected a Republican in 1964, and Republicans held the seat until 2008. That year, the district elected Bobby Bright, a Democrat who served as mayor of Montgomery, and who supposedly toyed with running as both a Republican and Democrat before siding with his current party. Bright defeated Republican Jay Love by about 2,000 votes, aided in large part by a huge African American turnout in support of Obama.
On paper, Bright should be extremely vulnerable, especially since African American turnout is expected to be low vis-à-vis 2008. But Bright has compiled an extremely conservative voting record, having voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and the health care bill. He’s stockpiled money, and has six times the cash-on-hand of his GOP challenger, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, who had a tough primary and runoff. And although the district is reliably Republican at the presidential level, it does elect Democrats at the state and local levels.