2010 Senate Races

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RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Vermont Governor - Dubie vs. Shumlin

Candidates

Brian Dubie

Brian Dubie (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Peter Shumlin

Peter Shumlin (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Vermont Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Governor
2006: Governor | Senate | VT-1
2004: President | Governor

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDubie (R)Shumlin (D)Spread
Final Results----47.849.6Shumlin +1.8
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV4550Shumlin +5
VPR/Mason-Dixon10/11 - 10/13625 LV4443Dubie +1
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13500 LV4649Shumlin +3
Rasmussen Reports6/17 - 6/17500 LV5536Dubie +19
Rasmussen Reports3/18 - 3/18500 LV5133Dubie +18
WCAX - Burlington2/14 - 2/16400 LV4535Dubie +10

Race Analysis

Although Vermont is a solidly Democratic state at the Presidential level, at the state level there is still a vestigial Republican Party capable of winning statewide races.  This is usually aided by a split between the Democratic Party and the state's unusually strong Progressive Party, which considers the Democrats to be too conservative.

For most of the 2000s, the state was governed by Jim Douglas, a moderate Republican.  Douglas opted not to run for re-election this year, and his Lieutenant Governor took up the party's standard.  Democrats trailed in polls for most of the year.  But shortly after nominating State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin, the polls closed, and showed Shumlin with a narrow lead. Whether this continues through to November, and whether the Progressive candidate splits the anti-Republican vote again, remain to be seen.