|Poll||Date||Sample||Dubie (R)||Shumlin (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||47.8||49.6||Shumlin +1.8|
|Rasmussen Reports||10/28 - 10/28||750 LV||45||50||Shumlin +5|
|VPR/Mason-Dixon||10/11 - 10/13||625 LV||44||43||Dubie +1|
|Rasmussen Reports||9/13 - 9/13||500 LV||46||49||Shumlin +3|
|Rasmussen Reports||6/17 - 6/17||500 LV||55||36||Dubie +19|
|Rasmussen Reports||3/18 - 3/18||500 LV||51||33||Dubie +18|
|WCAX - Burlington||2/14 - 2/16||400 LV||45||35||Dubie +10|
Although Vermont is a solidly Democratic state at the Presidential level, at the state level there is still a vestigial Republican Party capable of winning statewide races. This is usually aided by a split between the Democratic Party and the state's unusually strong Progressive Party, which considers the Democrats to be too conservative.
For most of the 2000s, the state was governed by Jim Douglas, a moderate Republican. Douglas opted not to run for re-election this year, and his Lieutenant Governor took up the party's standard. Democrats trailed in polls for most of the year. But shortly after nominating State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin, the polls closed, and showed Shumlin with a narrow lead. Whether this continues through to November, and whether the Progressive candidate splits the anti-Republican vote again, remain to be seen.