Tennessee Governor - Haslam vs. McWherter
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Haslam (R) | McWherter (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 65.0 | 33.1 | Haslam +31.9 |
| RCP Average | 7/6 - 10/7 | -- | 56.0 | 32.0 | Haslam +24.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/7 - 10/7 | 500 LV | 59 | 31 | Haslam +28 |
| Mason-Dixon | 7/19 - 7/21 | 625 RV | 49 | 31 | Haslam +18 |
| WSMV - Nashville | 7/6 - 7/7 | 603 RV | 60 | 34 | Haslam +26 |
Race Analysis
Tennessee was long something of an anomaly in the South. It had a strong Republican presence in the eastern portion of the state (and to a lesser extent in the West South Central region), which allowed it to maintain a sizeable presence in the state. Unlike the rest of the South, Democratic presidential candidates rarely received more than 55 percent of the vote there, and in good Republican years, they even lost.
So Tennessee was one of the first states in the South to align with the GOP and was the first to elect two Republican senators. It also occasionally elected Republican Governors, even during the Jim Crow era: It did so in 1880, 1910, 1912 and 1920.
Since Jim Crow ended, the state has tended to alternate the governorship between the parties: Democrats from 1966-1970, 1974-1978, 1986-1994 and 2002 to the present, with Republicans in the gaps. This year, the Republican mayor of Knoxville, Bill Haslam, will take on Mike McWherter, son of a former governor. Even without the state being due for a switchover, the Obama administration is deeply unpopular here, which means McWherter faces an uphill climb.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Haslam (R) | McWherter (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 65.0 | 33.1 | Haslam +31.9 |
| RCP Average | 7/6 - 10/7 | -- | 56.0 | 32.0 | Haslam +24.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/7 - 10/7 | 500 LV | 59 | 31 | Haslam +28 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/9 - 8/9 | 500 LV | 56 | 31 | Haslam +25 |
| Mason-Dixon | 7/19 - 7/21 | 625 RV | 49 | 31 | Haslam +18 |
| WSMV - Nashville | 7/6 - 7/7 | 603 RV | 60 | 34 | Haslam +26 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/15 - 6/15 | 500 LV | 50 | 32 | Haslam +18 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/22 - 3/22 | 500 LV | 45 | 27 | Haslam +18 |