2010 Senate Races

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2010 Governor Races

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Senate 2010 Polls
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Rhode Island Governor - Chafee vs. Caprio vs. Robitaille

Candidates

Frank Caprio

Frank Caprio (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Lincoln Chafee

Lincoln Chafee (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

John Robitaille

John Robitaille (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCaprio (D)Chafee (I)Robitaille (R)Spread
Final Results----23.036.133.6Chafee +2.5
RCP Average10/21 - 10/25--26.334.326.3Chafee +8.0
NBC 10/Quest Research10/23 - 10/25523 LV253528Chafee +7
WPRI/Fleming10/21 - 10/25500 LV263326Chafee +7
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV283525Chafee +7

All Rhode Island Governor - Chafee vs. Caprio vs. Robitaille Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Rhode Island Governor - Chafee vs. Caprio vs. Robitaille
26.3Caprio (D)
34.3Chafee (I)+8.0
26.3Robitaille (R)

Race Analysis

10/28/10 -- Caprio seems to have faded a bit, perhaps as a result of his comments suggesting that President Obama could take his endorsement and "shove it."  At the same time, Republican Robitaille seems to be surging a bit, and has even surpassed Caprio in the latest poll.

10/14/10 -- Caprio has gained ground in the race, which is basically still between him and Chafee.  It isn't really clear who the Republican is drawing from here; Chafee is arguably running to Caprio's left.

----------Race Preview---------

Rhode Island, our nation’s smallest state, is also probably the most heavily Democratic. The switch to Democratic dominance came abruptly in 1935, when the “bloodless revolution” broke the back of the conservative Republican machine that had managed to dominate the state long after it became a minority (Democrats declared the state Supreme Court and other state institutions still dominated by Republicans vacant, eliminating the inertia that slowed realignment in most other states). Republicans intermittently controlled the state Senate into the 1950s, but the state House and U.S. Senate seats were almost exclusively Democratic from there on out.

Despite this strong Democratic tilt, Republicans can still win the Governor’s mansion, and indeed the Democrats have won only one gubernatorial election since 1984. Republicans typically win by running against the Democratic machine on a reform platform. But after controlling the governor’s mansion for 16 straight years, the reform platform is a bit unconvincing.

Not that the Democrats are likely to win this time around. General Treasurer Frank Caprio is a strong candidate, but the leading candidate in most polls is former Senator Lincoln Chafee. Chafee has shed his Republican label and now considers himself an Independent. Chafee was never really that unpopular, and lost his seat more as part of an effort to “send a message to Washington” as anything else. His candidacy offers Rhode Islanders a way to give the legislature a check without electing a Republican.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCaprio (D)Chafee (I)Robitaille (R)Spread
Final Results----23.036.133.6Chafee +2.5
RCP Average10/21 - 10/25--26.334.326.3Chafee +8.0
NBC 10/Quest Research10/23 - 10/25523 LV253528Chafee +7
WPRI/Fleming10/21 - 10/25500 LV263326Chafee +7
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV283525Chafee +7
NBC 10/Quest Research10/4 - 10/6492 LV373322Caprio +4
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4750 LV303322Chafee +3
Brown University9/27 - 9/29565 RV302314Caprio +7
WPRI/Fleming9/22 - 9/26500 LV333019Caprio +3
NBC 10/Quest Research9/15 - 9/17495 LV362413Caprio +12
Rasmussen Reports9/16 - 9/16500 LV303323Chafee +3
Rasmussen Reports8/17 - 8/17750 LV383220Caprio +6
Rasmussen Reports7/21 - 7/21500 LV303723Chafee +7
Rasmussen Reports5/27 - 5/27500 LV323525Chafee +3
Rasmussen Reports4/21 - 4/21500 LV333321Tie
Rasmussen Reports3/25 - 3/25500 LV283922Chafee +11
Rasmussen Reports2/25 - 2/25500 LV273719Chafee +10
Brown University2/9 - 2/12609 LV283412Chafee +6