Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Onorato
Pennsylvania Snapshot
RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Senate | PA-3 | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2008: President |
PA-3 |
PA-10 |
PA-11
2006: Senate |
Governor |
PA-4 |
PA-6 |
PA-7 |
PA-8 |
PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Corbett (R) | Onorato (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 54.5 | 45.5 | Corbett +9.0 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 50.7 | 42.8 | Corbett +7.9 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 772 LV | 52 | 45 | Corbett +7 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/28 - 10/31 | 474 LV | 49 | 42 | Corbett +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/25 - 10/30 | 1244 LV | 52 | 42 | Corbett +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/28 | 750 LV | 52 | 43 | Corbett +9 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 461 LV | 51 | 44 | Corbett +7 |
| Susquehanna | 10/24 - 10/27 | 800 LV | 48 | 41 | Corbett +7 |
All Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Onorato Polling Data
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Race Analysis
11/2/10 7:15am -- Corbett has closed well, and he is well poised to win the governorship here.
10/21/10 -- The recent PPP poll shows a 2-point lead for Corbett, but every other pollster shows him with a larger lead. It could be that undecideds are leaning Democrat (which would be consistent with the Senate polling) or it could be that PPP is the outlier here.
10/11/10 -- Corbett's lead has narrowed some, but he still leads by about ten points in the polls, and he's still around fifty percent. Onorato seems to have consolidated his base a bit, but isn't showing the type of movement he'll need to show to win here. This becomes a longer shot for him every day.
----------Race Preview---------
There are some trends in politics that border on the surreal. Virginia always elects a governor from the opposite party of the one holding the White House (true since the 1970s). The North Carolina Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr switches parties every six years (true since the 1970s). And the Pennsylvania governorship switches parties every eight years. The latter has been true since 1954, when Pennsylvania elected only its fourth Democratic governor since the close of the Civil War.
The last time the governorship switched was in 2002, when the state elected Ed Rendell. Rendell was handily re-elected in 2006, but his approval ratings have slid since then. The Democrats selected Allegheny (Pittsburgh) County Executive Dan Onorato as their standard bearer – a smart move given that his base is in an area of the state that has been trending away from them. Republicans nominated Attorney General and former United States Attorney Tom Corbett. Corbett led handily in the polls through August, but there’s plenty of time for the slight Democratic lean of the state to reassert itself.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Corbett (R) | Onorato (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 54.5 | 45.5 | Corbett +9.0 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 50.7 | 42.8 | Corbett +7.9 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 772 LV | 52 | 45 | Corbett +7 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/28 - 10/31 | 474 LV | 49 | 42 | Corbett +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/25 - 10/30 | 1244 LV | 52 | 42 | Corbett +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/28 | 750 LV | 52 | 43 | Corbett +9 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 461 LV | 51 | 44 | Corbett +7 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/24 - 10/27 | 460 LV | 52 | 37 | Corbett +15 |
| Susquehanna | 10/24 - 10/27 | 800 LV | 48 | 41 | Corbett +7 |
| CNN/Time | 10/20 - 10/26 | 823 LV | 52 | 45 | Corbett +7 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/22 - 10/24 | 400 LV | 49 | 43 | Corbett +6 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/21 - 10/24 | 437 LV | 49 | 41 | Corbett +8 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 10/18 - 10/24 | 489 LV | 47 | 32 | Corbett +15 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/21 - 10/21 | 750 LV | 50 | 45 | Corbett +5 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/16 - 10/19 | 403 LV | 47 | 40 | Corbett +7 |
| PPP (D) | 10/17 - 10/18 | 718 LV | 48 | 46 | Corbett +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/13 - 10/17 | 1046 LV | 49 | 44 | Corbett +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/12 - 10/12 | 750 LV | 54 | 40 | Corbett +14 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 10/10 - 10/10 | 1766 LV | 48 | 38 | Corbett +10 |
| Morning Call | 9/28 - 10/4 | 577 LV | 47 | 37 | Corbett +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/29 - 9/29 | 750 LV | 53 | 41 | Corbett +12 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 9/26 - 9/28 | 468 LV | 53 | 41 | Corbett +12 |
| Suffolk University | 9/24 - 9/27 | 500 LV | 47 | 40 | Corbett +7 |
| Susquehanna | 9/23 - 9/26 | 800 LV | 46 | 40 | Corbett +6 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 9/20 - 9/26 | 436 LV | 36 | 32 | Corbett +4 |
| Morning Call | 9/18 - 9/23 | 445 LV | 46 | 37 | Corbett +9 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 9/21 - 9/21 | 1430 LV | 50 | 38 | Corbett +12 |
| CNN/Time | 9/17 - 9/21 | 741 LV | 52 | 44 | Corbett +8 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/15 - 9/19 | 684 LV | 54 | 39 | Corbett +15 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/18 - 9/18 | 1000 LV | 49 | 39 | Corbett +10 |
| Times Leader/Critical Insights | 9/14 - 9/16 | 600 LV | 38 | 37 | Corbett +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/13 - 9/13 | 750 LV | 49 | 39 | Corbett +10 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/11 - 9/11 | 1000 LV | 50 | 40 | Corbett +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/30 - 8/30 | 750 LV | 53 | 39 | Corbett +14 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 8/27 - 8/29 | 407 LV | 49 | 34 | Corbett +15 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 8/16 - 8/23 | 377 LV | 38 | 27 | Corbett +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/16 - 8/16 | 750 LV | 50 | 39 | Corbett +11 |
| PPP (D) | 8/14 - 8/16 | 585 LV | 48 | 35 | Corbett +13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/28 - 7/28 | 750 LV | 50 | 39 | Corbett +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/14 - 7/14 | 750 LV | 48 | 38 | Corbett +10 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/6 - 7/11 | 1367 RV | 44 | 37 | Corbett +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/29 - 6/29 | 500 LV | 49 | 39 | Corbett +10 |
| PPP (D) | 6/19 - 6/21 | 609 LV | 45 | 35 | Corbett +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/2 - 6/2 | 500 LV | 49 | 33 | Corbett +16 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/19 - 5/19 | 500 LV | 49 | 36 | Corbett +13 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/4 - 5/10 | 1161 RV | 43 | 37 | Corbett +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/15 - 4/15 | 500 LV | 45 | 36 | Corbett +9 |
| Morning Call | 3/29 - 4/7 | 402 LV | 42 | 18 | Corbett +24 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/30 - 4/5 | 1412 RV | 45 | 33 | Corbett +12 |
| PPP (D) | 3/29 - 4/1 | 934 LV | 45 | 32 | Corbett +13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/16 - 3/16 | 500 LV | 46 | 29 | Corbett +17 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 3/8 - 3/10 | 600 LV | 40 | 34 | Corbett +6 |
| Susquehanna | 3/3 - 3/6 | 700 LV | 39 | 24 | Corbett +15 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/22 - 2/28 | 1452 RV | 42 | 32 | Corbett +10 |