2010 Senate Races

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2010 House Races

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Generic Congressional Ballot
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2010 Governor Races

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Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Onorato

Candidates

Tom Corbett

Tom Corbett (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Dan Onorato

Dan Onorato (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pennsylvania Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | PA-3 | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCorbett (R)Onorato (D)Spread
Final Results----54.545.5Corbett +9.0
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--50.742.8Corbett +7.9
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31772 LV5245Corbett +7
Morning Call Tracking10/28 - 10/31474 LV4942Corbett +7
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/301244 LV5242Corbett +10
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV5243Corbett +9
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28461 LV5144Corbett +7
Susquehanna10/24 - 10/27800 LV4841Corbett +7

All Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Onorato Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Onorato
50.7Corbett (R)+7.9
42.8Onorato (D)

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Race Analysis

11/2/10 7:15am -- Corbett has closed well, and he is well poised to win the governorship here.

10/21/10 -- The recent PPP poll shows a 2-point lead for Corbett, but every other pollster shows him with a larger lead.  It could be that undecideds are leaning Democrat (which would be consistent with the Senate polling) or it could be that PPP is the outlier here.

10/11/10 -- Corbett's lead has narrowed some, but he still leads by about ten points in the polls, and he's still around fifty percent.  Onorato seems to have consolidated his base a bit, but isn't showing the type of movement he'll need to show to win here.  This becomes a longer shot for him every day.

----------Race Preview---------

There are some trends in politics that border on the surreal. Virginia always elects a governor from the opposite party of the one holding the White House (true since the 1970s). The North Carolina Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr switches parties every six years (true since the 1970s). And the Pennsylvania governorship switches parties every eight years. The latter has been true since 1954, when Pennsylvania elected only its fourth Democratic governor since the close of the Civil War.

The last time the governorship switched was in 2002, when the state elected Ed Rendell. Rendell was handily re-elected in 2006, but his approval ratings have slid since then. The Democrats selected Allegheny (Pittsburgh) County Executive Dan Onorato as their standard bearer – a smart move given that his base is in an area of the state that has been trending away from them. Republicans nominated Attorney General and former United States Attorney Tom Corbett. Corbett led handily in the polls through August, but there’s plenty of time for the slight Democratic lean of the state to reassert itself.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCorbett (R)Onorato (D)Spread
Final Results----54.545.5Corbett +9.0
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--50.742.8Corbett +7.9
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31772 LV5245Corbett +7
Morning Call Tracking10/28 - 10/31474 LV4942Corbett +7
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/301244 LV5242Corbett +10
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV5243Corbett +9
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28461 LV5144Corbett +7
Morning Call Tracking10/24 - 10/27460 LV5237Corbett +15
Susquehanna10/24 - 10/27800 LV4841Corbett +7
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26823 LV5245Corbett +7
Reuters/Ipsos10/22 - 10/24400 LV4943Corbett +6
Morning Call Tracking10/21 - 10/24437 LV4941Corbett +8
Franklin & Marshall10/18 - 10/24489 LV4732Corbett +15
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV5045Corbett +5
Morning Call Tracking10/16 - 10/19403 LV4740Corbett +7
PPP (D)10/17 - 10/18718 LV4846Corbett +2
Quinnipiac10/13 - 10/171046 LV4944Corbett +5
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12750 LV5440Corbett +14
Magellan Strategies (R)10/10 - 10/101766 LV4838Corbett +10
Morning Call9/28 - 10/4577 LV4737Corbett +10
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/29750 LV5341Corbett +12
McClatchy/Marist9/26 - 9/28468 LV5341Corbett +12
Suffolk University9/24 - 9/27500 LV4740Corbett +7
Susquehanna9/23 - 9/26800 LV4640Corbett +6
Franklin & Marshall9/20 - 9/26436 LV3632Corbett +4
Morning Call9/18 - 9/23445 LV4637Corbett +9
Magellan Strategies (R)9/21 - 9/211430 LV5038Corbett +12
CNN/Time9/17 - 9/21741 LV5244Corbett +8
Quinnipiac9/15 - 9/19684 LV5439Corbett +15
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV4939Corbett +10
Times Leader/Critical Insights9/14 - 9/16600 LV3837Corbett +1
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13750 LV4939Corbett +10
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV5040Corbett +10
Rasmussen Reports8/30 - 8/30750 LV5339Corbett +14
Reuters/Ipsos8/27 - 8/29407 LV4934Corbett +15
Franklin & Marshall8/16 - 8/23377 LV3827Corbett +11
Rasmussen Reports8/16 - 8/16750 LV5039Corbett +11
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/16585 LV4835Corbett +13
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/28750 LV5039Corbett +11
Rasmussen Reports7/14 - 7/14750 LV4838Corbett +10
Quinnipiac7/6 - 7/111367 RV4437Corbett +7
Rasmussen Reports6/29 - 6/29500 LV4939Corbett +10
PPP (D)6/19 - 6/21609 LV4535Corbett +10
Rasmussen Reports6/2 - 6/2500 LV4933Corbett +16
Rasmussen Reports5/19 - 5/19500 LV4936Corbett +13
Quinnipiac5/4 - 5/101161 RV4337Corbett +6
Rasmussen Reports4/15 - 4/15500 LV4536Corbett +9
Morning Call3/29 - 4/7402 LV4218Corbett +24
Quinnipiac3/30 - 4/51412 RV4533Corbett +12
PPP (D)3/29 - 4/1934 LV4532Corbett +13
Rasmussen Reports3/16 - 3/16500 LV4629Corbett +17
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/8 - 3/10600 LV4034Corbett +6
Susquehanna3/3 - 3/6700 LV3924Corbett +15
Quinnipiac2/22 - 2/281452 RV4232Corbett +10