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Oregon Governor - Dudley vs. Kitzhaber

Candidates

Chris Dudley

Chris Dudley (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

John Kitzhaber

John Kitzhaber (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oregon Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Senate | OR-1 | OR-4 | OR-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDudley (R)Kitzhaber (D)Spread
Final Results----48.149.2Kitzhaber +1.1
RCP Average10/23 - 10/31--44.346.7Kitzhaber +2.4
Portland Tribune10/30 - 10/311000 LV4346Kitzhaber +3
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/28580 LV4148Kitzhaber +7
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25750 LV4946Dudley +3

All Oregon Governor - Dudley vs. Kitzhaber Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Oregon Governor - Dudley vs. Kitzhaber
44.3Dudley (R)
46.7Kitzhaber (D)+2.4

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Race Analysis

10/21/10 -- The polls continue to now show Kitzhaber with a lead, albeit a very narrow one.

10/11/10 -- Rasmussen shows some movement back toward Kitzhaber, and gives him the first lead of the cycle (we should take the Riley Research poll showing 21 percent of the voters undecided with an appropriate grain of salt).  We'll have to wait and see if someone else duplicates the result, but the Republicans might continue the second longest gubernatorial dry spell in the nation.

----------Race Preview---------

Oregon was admitted to the Union as a free state. Most of the state is either mountainous or desert, and most of the state’s population is wedged into the Willamette Valley, between the Coastal Range and the Cascade Mountains. The state was Republican throughout its first 80 years, but it was in the progressive Republican camp. Once progressives became a permanent part of the Democratic coalition, the state moved toward the Democrats.

The state is the home to the longest Republican gubernatorial losing streak in the country. From 1974 through the present, Republicans have only won the governorship once; Victor Atiyeh won in 1978 and again in 1982. 

This year could end the streak. Oregon is not so far to the left that a Republican cannot win here – it was a close state in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential races. The current governor, Ted Kulongoski, is deeply unpopular, and has been for most of his term. To succeed him, Democrats have turned back to John Kitzhaber, who occupied the Governor’s mansion from 1994 until 2002. Republicans have nominated former NBA player Chris Dudley, a shot-blocker extraordinaire who also holds the NBA record for most consecutive missed free throws.

Dudley has led Kitzhaber in most of the early polls, although the margins have been small. There is obviously plenty of time for the dynamics of this race to change, and the Democratic nature of the state may eventually assert itself.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDudley (R)Kitzhaber (D)Spread
Final Results----48.149.2Kitzhaber +1.1
RCP Average10/23 - 10/31--44.346.7Kitzhaber +2.4
Portland Tribune10/30 - 10/311000 LV4346Kitzhaber +3
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/28580 LV4148Kitzhaber +7
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25750 LV4946Dudley +3
Portland Tribune10/24 - 10/25500 LV4643Dudley +3
The Oregonian/Elway10/18 - 10/19500 LV4445Kitzhaber +1
Daily Kos/PPP (D)10/16 - 10/171229 LV4748Kitzhaber +1
SurveyUSA10/12 - 10/14652 LV4546Kitzhaber +1
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10750 LV4648Kitzhaber +2
SurveyUSA9/12 - 9/14562 LV4943Dudley +6
Riley Research8/31 - 9/9392 LV3940Kitzhaber +1
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/8750 LV4944Dudley +5
Rasmussen Reports8/22 - 8/22750 LV4945Dudley +4
SurveyUSA7/25 - 7/27567 LV4644Dudley +2
Rasmussen Reports7/26 - 7/26750 LV4744Dudley +3
Magellan Strategies (R)6/28 - 6/28963 LV4140Dudley +1
Rasmussen Reports6/17 - 6/17500 LV4745Dudley +2
SurveyUSA6/7 - 6/9566 LV4740Dudley +7
Rasmussen Reports5/20 - 5/20500 LV4544Dudley +1
Rasmussen Reports4/26 - 4/26500 LV4141Tie
Moore Info. (R)2/20 - 2/21500 LV3345Kitzhaber +12