2010 Senate Races

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2010 House Races

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2010 Governor Races

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Oklahoma Governor - Fallin vs. Askins


Jari Askins

Jari Askins (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mary Fallin

Mary Fallin (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oklahoma Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: Senate | OK-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | OK-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAskins (D)Fallin (R)Spread
Final Results----39.960.1Fallin +20.2
Sooner Poll10/18 - 10/23753 LV3856Fallin +18
Sooner Poll10/3 - 10/7352 LV3854Fallin +16
Rasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/23500 LV3460Fallin +26
Rasmussen Reports8/26 - 8/26500 LV3752Fallin +15
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/28500 LV3657Fallin +21
Sooner Poll7/16 - 7/21755 LV4046Fallin +6
Rasmussen Reports6/30 - 6/30500 LV3255Fallin +23
Sooner Poll5/25 - 6/8503 LV3649Fallin +13
Rasmussen Reports2/24 - 2/24500 LV3751Fallin +14

Race Analysis

Although the politics of the Sooner state may seem monolithic – no Democratic presidential candidate has carried a county since 2000 – the state’s politics are actually similar to the politics of many Southern states from 30 years ago. There’s an urban/rural divide, with the two larger cities and their suburbs leaning heavily toward the Republicans. There are also geographic divides; the northwest was settled by Kansans and was historically Republican (the panhandle counties gave Obama about 10 percent of the vote in 2008), while the southeast is more Democratic.

These divides explain much of why Oklahoma has a Democratic governor. In 2002, Rep. Steve Largent, a darling of Christian conservatives, was the odds-on favorite to win the Governor’s mansion. But Largent was caught cursing at a reporter on camera, which did not play well with his Christian base. In addition, a cockfighting ban was on the ballot drawing rural Democrats to the polls. Largent had big wins in Tulsa and Oklahoma counties, as well as in the northern tier of counties, but Democrat Brad Henry ran exceptionally well in the rural areas, and upset the Republican.

An upset is possible this year as well, but it’s more unlikely. Republicans nominated Representative and former Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin, while Democrats chose Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins. Some polls show a competitive race, but it is a steep hill for Democrats to climb in a state that has been inching more and more toward the Republicans since the 1960s.