2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

New Hampshire Governor - Stephen vs. Lynch

Candidates

John Lynch

John Lynch (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

John Stephen

John Stephen (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races:
Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLynch (D)Stephen (R)Spread
Final Results----52.645.1Lynch +7.5
RCP Average10/27 - 10/31--51.043.3Lynch +7.7
WMUR/UNH10/27 - 10/31885 LV4941Lynch +8
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/291308 LV5344Lynch +9
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV5145Lynch +6

All New Hampshire Governor - Stephen vs. Lynch Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
New Hampshire Governor - Stephen vs. Lynch
51.0Lynch (D)+7.7
43.3Stephen (R)

Embeddable Widget

 

After making your selection, copy and paste the embed code above. The code changes based on your selection below.

180 x 338   300 x 338   450 x 338   Custom Width

px

Minimum pixel width is 180px.
Embed

Race Analysis

11/2/10, 6:59am -- Different polls, same story.  Lynch is the favorite, but if the turnout models are off, he could be in big trouble.

10/9/10 -- Lynch continues to hover around the 50 percent mark, meaning he's still in danger of losing.  But ARG sees him bouncing back from only two points up, while UNH continues to show him with a double-digit lead.  Lynch continues to be the favorite, although he could still lose.

----------Race Preview---------

New Hampshire has always been an oddity.  For much of the 19th Century it was a lone bastion of Democratic politics in New England, and for most of the later 20th Century, it was the sole rock-ribbed Republican state in the area.  Immigrants fleeing Massachusetts’ high tax rates were attracted to the state’s austere fiscal policy and low tax rates, to the point that just about every New Hampshire politician takes “The Pledge” not to raise taxes. 

The state has also been unique in that it has held the first-in-the-nation primary for decades, allowing it a huge say in who becomes President.  Sometimes it has gotten it very wrong – like when New Hampshire Democrats voted for Herbert Hoover as their nominee in 1920 – but it has overall done a much better job of picking the eventual winner than the Iowa Caucuses.

In 2004, as most of the country was moving toward George W. Bush and the Republicans, New Hampshire voted for John Kerry and threw out its Republican Governor, whom it had elected in 2002 by a twenty-point margin.  The new Governor, John Lynch, was elected in 2006 with 74% of the vote, the highest vote total since Democrat Isaac Hill defeated Joseph Healy of the newly-formed Whig Party 81%-8% in 1836.  Lynch’s 2008 total was a similarly-high 70%.

But in 2010, Lynch is looking a bit worse for wear as he seeks to become the first Governor in two centuries elected to a fourth term.  The economy is taking a toll on his approval ratings (44%-41% in an April poll), and he is below 50% in polls against his relatively unknown GOP opponents.  This race is a Likely Democratic hold for now, but Lynch is probably in for his first real race in years.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLynch (D)Stephen (R)Spread
Final Results----52.645.1Lynch +7.5
RCP Average10/27 - 10/31--51.043.3Lynch +7.7
WMUR/UNH10/27 - 10/31885 LV4941Lynch +8
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/291308 LV5344Lynch +9
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV5145Lynch +6
WMUR/UNH10/7 - 10/12709 LV5138Lynch +13
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10750 LV5343Lynch +10
ARG10/3 - 10/5600 LV5141Lynch +10
WMUR/UNH9/23 - 9/29470 LV5134Lynch +17
ARG9/22 - 9/26800 LV4240Lynch +2
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/15500 LV4846Lynch +2
PPP (D)9/11 - 9/121959 LV5139Lynch +12
Rasmussen Reports8/5 - 8/5500 LV5039Lynch +11
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/25900 RV5134Lynch +17
Rasmussen Reports5/26 - 5/26500 LV4735Lynch +12
WMUR/UNH4/18 - 4/28462 LV4932Lynch +17
PPP (D)4/17 - 4/181474 LV4736Lynch +11
Rasmussen Reports4/7 - 4/7500 LV4737Lynch +10
WMUR/UNH1/27 - 2/3444 LV5030Lynch +20
WMUR/UNH7/19 - 7/27448 LV5429Lynch +25