Race Analysis
The story of Michigan politics can be summarized in three letters: U.A.W. In the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s, what was once one of the most solidly Republican states in the Union (71 percent for Hoover in 1928) quickly became competitive. The state became split between “outstate” Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. The suburbs provided a swing vote, but like most Northern suburbs, they moved toward the Democrats in the 1990s and took the state along with them.
Michigan suffered from a one-state recession in the 2000s. Governor Jennifer Granholm was not particularly popular, but she managed a come-from-behind win against Republican Dick DeVos. But as the Bush Administration gave way to the Obama Administration, the blame for the state of the economy fell more heavily on Granholm. In April of this year, her approval rating was 27 percent; 44 percent approved of the job the President was doing.
Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry took himself out of the running earlier this year, leaving Democrats to choose between Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and House Speaker Andy Dillon. Bernero won the primary and will face Republican businessman Rick Snyder. Though Snyder has held big leads in most polls, Bernero should be able to pick up a fair share of the undecideds. It also isn't clear whether a venture capitalist was the best choice for Michigan Republicans in this populist environment. Regardless, given Granholm and the Democratic Party’s struggles this year, it will probably be difficult for for Bernero to win.
