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2010 Governor Races

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Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Bernero

Candidates

Virg Bernero

Virg Bernero (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rick Snyder

Rick Snyder (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: 
MI-1 | MI-7 | MI-9 | MI-15

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBernero (D)Snyder (R)Spread
Final Results----39.958.1Snyder +18.2
RCP Average10/17 - 10/26--35.553.0Snyder +17.5
Detroit News10/25 - 10/26600 LV3553Snyder +18
EPIC-MRA10/23 - 10/26600 LV3755Snyder +18
Rossman/Team TelCom10/18 - 10/18400 LV3650Snyder +14
Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/17500 LV3454Snyder +20

All Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Bernero Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Bernero
35.5Bernero (D)
53.0Snyder (R)+17.5

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Race Analysis

The story of Michigan politics can be summarized in three letters: U.A.W.  In the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s, what was once one of the most solidly Republican states in the Union (71 percent for Hoover in 1928) quickly became competitive. The state became split between “outstate” Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. The suburbs provided a swing vote, but like most Northern suburbs, they moved toward the Democrats in the 1990s and took the state along with them.

Michigan suffered from a one-state recession in the 2000s. Governor Jennifer Granholm was not particularly popular, but she managed a come-from-behind win against Republican Dick DeVos. But as the Bush Administration gave way to the Obama Administration, the blame for the state of the economy fell more heavily on Granholm. In April of this year, her approval rating was 27 percent; 44 percent approved of the job the President was doing. 

Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry took himself out of the running earlier this year, leaving Democrats to choose between Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and House Speaker Andy Dillon. Bernero won the primary and will face Republican businessman Rick Snyder. Though Snyder has held big leads in most polls, Bernero should be able to pick up a fair share of the undecideds. It also isn't clear whether a venture capitalist was the best choice for Michigan Republicans in this populist environment. Regardless, given Granholm and the Democratic Party’s struggles this year, it will probably be difficult for for Bernero to win.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBernero (D)Snyder (R)Spread
Final Results----39.958.1Snyder +18.2
RCP Average10/17 - 10/26--35.553.0Snyder +17.5
Detroit News10/25 - 10/26600 LV3553Snyder +18
EPIC-MRA10/23 - 10/26600 LV3755Snyder +18
Rossman/Team TelCom10/18 - 10/18400 LV3650Snyder +14
Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/17500 LV3454Snyder +20
Baydoun/Foster (D)10/11 - 10/112331 LV3354Snyder +21
Mitchell Research10/11 - 10/111390 LV3252Snyder +20
Baydoun/Foster (D)10/7 - 10/72282 LV3750Snyder +13
EPIC-MRA10/3 - 10/7600 LV2949Snyder +20
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20500 LV3851Snyder +13
PPP (D)9/17 - 9/19497 LV3152Snyder +21
EPIC-MRA9/11 - 9/12600 LV2953Snyder +24
Detroit News9/7 - 9/8600 LV3656Snyder +20
Mitchell Research8/25 - 8/29600 LV2653Snyder +27
EPIC-MRA8/21 - 8/23600 LV2951Snyder +22
Detroit News8/9 - 8/10600 RV3251Snyder +19
Rasmussen Reports8/4 - 8/4500 LV3749Snyder +12
Rasmussen Reports6/9 - 6/9500 LV3042Snyder +12
PPP (D)5/25 - 5/27890 LV2844Snyder +16
EPIC-MRA5/22 - 5/26600 LV2851Snyder +23
EPIC-MRA3/28 - 3/31600 LV2642Snyder +16
MRG of Lansing3/10 - 3/15600 LV2444Snyder +20