2010 Senate Races

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2010 House Races

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2010 Governor Races

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Senate 2010 Polls
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Maine Governor - LePage vs. Mitchell vs. Cutler

Candidates

Eliot Cutler

Eliot Cutler (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

Paul LePage

Paul LePage (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Libby Mitchell

Libby Mitchell (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCutler (I)LePage (R)Mitchell (D)Spread
Final Results----36.538.319.1LePage +1.8
RCP Average10/25 - 10/28--26.539.323.3LePage +12.8
Critical Insights10/27 - 10/28621 LV214021LePage +19
PPP (D)10/26 - 10/281812 LV284024LePage +12
Pan Atlantic SMS10/25 - 10/27400 LV313722LePage +6
Rasmussen Reports10/26 - 10/26750 LV264026LePage +14

All Maine Governor - LePage vs. Mitchell vs. Cutler Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Maine Governor - LePage vs. Mitchell vs. Cutler
26.5Cutler (I)
39.3LePage (R)+12.8
23.3Mitchell (D)

Race Analysis

10/29/10 -- The undecideds appear to be breaking heavily toward LePage, and he is opening up a double-digit lead.

10/14/10 -- LePage's large lead looked like it was disappearing, but for now it seems to have settled in to a smallish, three-point lead.  In a three- or four-way race (depending how you count the second Independent), that is more substantial than in a two-way race.  LePage retains an edge for now.

10/11/10 -- The latest polls show a narrowing of LePage's lead, and Libby Mitchell has led in the first poll all cycle.  Interestingly, Mitchell's numbers and the Independent's numbers (Cutler) have been unchanged, but LePage's numbers have dropped.  This suggests that perhaps voters have become skeptical of LePage, but aren't quite ready to sign on to Cutler or Mitchell just yet.  The next two weeks will be critical here.

9/22/10 -- LePage has managed to keep his lead, and has even expanded it through the end of September.  LePage is presently toying with the 50 percent mark, in a three-way race, no less.  This comes even as he's faced questions regarding his family finances, and stormed out of a press conference.  This is turning out to be one of the strongest Republican challenges for the Governor's mansion in this state in years.

----------Race Preview---------

“As goes Maine, so goes the nation.” This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the day before reliable public opinion polling.  Of course this ended in 1936 when Maine and Vermont were the only two states to vote against FDR, causing his campaign manager to famously comment “as goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”

But make no mistake, for years the only question was what degree of support Maine would give to the Republican candidate. Until 1954, when Ed Muskie won, the Republicans had only lost five gubernatorial elections – at a time when governor’s elections were held every two years.

Since then, Republicans have only won four Governor’s elections; they haven’t even come close since winning in 1990. In keeping with the state’s quirky character, the state has a predilection for independents – only once has a major party candidate won a majority in the state since the 1970s.

Democratic Governor John Baldacci was vulnerable in 2006, but Republicans nominated Chandler Woodcock, a social conservative who allowed Baldacci to win with 39 percent of the vote. Republicans might be making the same mistake again. Democrats have nominated state Senate President Libby Mitchell, who hopes to become the state’s first female Governor. Republicans nominated Paul LePage, a fiscally and socially conservative mayor of Waterville, Maine. LePage has led in polling early on, and the present focus on fiscal issues could keep him afloat. Still, it will be a challenge to keep his lead through November.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCutler (I)LePage (R)Mitchell (D)Spread
Final Results----36.538.319.1LePage +1.8
RCP Average10/25 - 10/28--26.539.323.3LePage +12.8
Critical Insights10/27 - 10/28621 LV214021LePage +19
PPP (D)10/26 - 10/281812 LV284024LePage +12
Pan Atlantic SMS10/25 - 10/27400 LV313722LePage +6
Rasmussen Reports10/26 - 10/26750 LV264026LePage +14
Critical Insights10/13 - 10/17600 LV193220LePage +12
Pan Atlantic SMS10/11 - 10/15501 LV143328LePage +5
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12500 LV213532LePage +3
Critical Insights10/10 - 10/11605 LV113226LePage +6
PineTreePolitics/MECPO10/4 - 10/7679 LV113029LePage +1
Critical Insights9/27 - 9/27405 LV92930Mitchell +1
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20500 LV144527LePage +18
Critical Insights9/13 - 9/13603 LV113825LePage +13
PPP (D)9/2 - 9/61468 LV114329LePage +14
Rasmussen Reports8/12 - 8/12500 LV163830LePage +8
Rasmussen Reports7/14 - 7/14500 LV153931LePage +8
Rasmussen Reports6/10 - 6/10500 LV74336LePage +7