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Maryland Governor - Ehrlich vs. O'Malley

Candidates

Bob Ehrlich

Bob Ehrlich (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Martin O\'Malley

Martin O'Malley (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Maryland Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | MD-1

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleEhrlich (R)O'Malley (D)Spread
Final Results----42.355.8O\'Malley +13.5
RCP Average10/11 - 10/24--40.551.3O\'Malley +10.8
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV4252O\'Malley +10
Washington Post10/19 - 10/221434 LV4054O\'Malley +14
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks10/15 - 10/20798 LV3852O\'Malley +14
Gonzales Research10/11 - 10/16816 LV4247O\'Malley +5

All Maryland Governor - Ehrlich vs. O'Malley Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Maryland Governor - Ehrlich vs. O'Malley
40.5Ehrlich (R)
51.3O'Malley (D)+10.8

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Race Analysis

10/10/10 -- O'Malley seems to have stormed out to a substantial lead, somewhere around eight points.  It's not time to put a fork in Ehrlich by any stretch of the imagination, but he needs to start closing that gap, quickly, if he is going to have a chance at winning here.

----------Race Preview---------

Maryland is increasingly a city-state – all of its districts are partially in either metropolitan Washington, D.C. or Baltimore. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold.  In the 19th and early 20th centuries, a Democratic machine in Baltimore combined with voters on the culturally southern eastern shore to form a Democratic majority. In the later 20th century, the Democrats lost the eastern shore, but found increasingly receptive voters in the suburbs of D.C. Post Civil War, the state has elected only six Republican governors, and only one has managed a second term.

The last Republican Governor, Bob Ehrlich, won an open seat against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a disappointing candidate for Democrats, in 2002. Ehrlich had a tempestuous relationship with the Democratic legislature, and in 2006 he was defeated by Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley.

O’Malley’s approval ratings declined after imposition of a tax hike and other measures designed to balance the state’s budget. Ehrlich announced his intention to seek a rematch earlier this year.  Both men are below 50 percent in the polls, and since both are incumbents of sorts, the usual “incumbent rule” may not apply. 

Polling Data

PollDateSampleEhrlich (R)O'Malley (D)Spread
Final Results----42.355.8O\'Malley +13.5
RCP Average10/11 - 10/24--40.551.3O\'Malley +10.8
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV4252O\'Malley +10
Washington Post10/19 - 10/221434 LV4054O\'Malley +14
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks10/15 - 10/20798 LV3852O\'Malley +14
Gonzales Research10/11 - 10/16816 LV4247O\'Malley +5
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4750 LV4149O\'Malley +8
Washington Post9/22 - 9/26730 LV4152O\'Malley +11
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/15750 LV4750O\'Malley +3
OpinionWorks8/13 - 8/18600 LV4147O\'Malley +6
Rasmussen Reports8/17 - 8/17750 LV4747Tie
Gonzales Research7/13 - 7/21807 LV4245O\'Malley +3
PPP (D)7/10 - 7/12569 RV4245O\'Malley +3
Rasmussen Reports7/8 - 7/8500 LV4746Ehrlich +1
Magellan Strategies (R)6/29 - 6/29752 LV4643Ehrlich +3
Rasmussen Reports6/8 - 6/8500 LV4545Tie
Washington Post5/3 - 5/6851 RV4149O\'Malley +8
Rasmussen Reports4/20 - 4/20500 LV4447O\'Malley +3
Rasmussen Reports2/23 - 2/23500 LV4349O\'Malley +6
Gonzales Research1/13 - 1/17816 RV3948O\'Malley +9
Clarus Research10/30 - 11/5637 RV4047O\'Malley +7
Gonzales Research9/8 - 9/17833 RV3849O\'Malley +11