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Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Patrick vs. Cahill

Candidates

Charles Baker

Charles Baker (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Timothy Cahill

Timothy Cahill (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

Deval Patrick

Deval Patrick (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaker (R)Cahill (I)Patrick (D)Spread
Final Results----42.18.048.4Patrick +6.3
RCP Average10/17 - 10/28--39.88.544.3Patrick +4.5
Western NE University10/24 - 10/28361 LV371142Patrick +5
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV44646Patrick +2
Suffolk/7News10/25 - 10/27500 LV39946Patrick +7
Boston Globe/UNH10/17 - 10/22519 LV39843Patrick +4

All Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Patrick vs. Cahill Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Patrick vs. Cahill
39.8Baker (R)
8.5Cahill (I)
44.3Patrick (D)+4.5

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Race Analysis

11/2/10, 6:55 am -- Patrick's lead is consistent, but small.  If the polls' turnout models are off a bit, Baker could pull of the upset.  But you still have to consider Patrick to be a slight favorite.

10/10/10 -- Cahill's running mate and a number of advisers have left his campaign.  Making matters worse, allegations have begun to surface that Cahill's candidacy was coordinated with Deval Patrick, in order to split the anti-Patrick votes.  In the meantime, Patrick's lead has trailed away to the low single digits.  This race is looking a lot more interesting than it did a month ago.

----------Race Preview---------

For years, Republicans dominated Massachusetts. Some of the most prominent Republicans in history came out of Massachusetts politics: Charles Sumner, both Lodges, Calvin Coolidge. These were blue-blooded Yankees, with a passion for social reform movements and a belief in cautious taxing and spending. But underneath this Yankee dominance was a growing Irish Democratic presence. By the late 1800s it had turned Boston into a largely Democratic city, by the 1930s it had made the state Democratic in national elections, and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

As the Irish progressed upwards through society their political views became increasingly liberal, and by the late 1980s the Democrats had mostly absorbed the state’s Republican establishment. The last true Irish Democrat versus Yankee Republican race came in 1990, when liberal Republican William Weld won the governorship. The Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, but the party has nevertheless won four of the last five governor’s races. The Republican path to victory is simple: Present oneself as a check on the solidly Democratic legislature.

The Democratic wave of 2006 was powerful enough that this argument failed badly, and the state went heavily for Deval Patrick, the state’s first African American governor. His tenure on Beacon Hill has been rocky, and for much of 2009 he looked extremely vulnerable. But fate seems to have smiled on the Governor, as State Treasurer Tim Cahill filed as an Independent. This seems to have split the anti-Patrick vote. Depending on whether Cahill can hold his vote share, 40 percent might just be enough for Patrick to pull out a win.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaker (R)Cahill (I)Patrick (D)Spread
Final Results----42.18.048.4Patrick +6.3
RCP Average10/17 - 10/28--39.88.544.3Patrick +4.5
Western NE University10/24 - 10/28361 LV371142Patrick +5
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV44646Patrick +2
Suffolk/7News10/25 - 10/27500 LV39946Patrick +7
Boston Globe/UNH10/17 - 10/22519 LV39843Patrick +4
Western NE University10/16 - 10/21400 LV36844Patrick +8
Rasmussen Reports10/16 - 10/16750 LV42647Patrick +5
Suffolk/7News10/10 - 10/12500 LV391046Patrick +7
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 9/28750 LV42647Patrick +5
Western NE University9/19 - 9/23402 LV331639Patrick +6
Boston Globe/UNH9/17 - 9/22471 LV341135Patrick +1
Suffolk/7News9/16 - 9/19500 RV341441Patrick +7
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/15500 LV42545Patrick +3
Rasmussen Reports9/1 - 9/1500 LV42844Patrick +2
State House News8/29 - 8/31362 RV281834Patrick +6
Rasmussen Reports7/22 - 7/22500 LV321738Patrick +6
Boston Globe/UNH6/17 - 6/23497 LV31938Patrick +7
Rasmussen Reports6/21 - 6/21500 LV341641Patrick +7
Suffolk/7News5/20 - 5/23500 RV291442Patrick +13
Rasmussen Reports5/10 - 5/10500 LV311445Patrick +14
Western NE University4/11 - 4/15528 A272934Patrick +5
Rasmussen Reports4/5 - 4/5500 LV272335Patrick +8
Rasmussen Reports3/8 - 3/8500 LV321935Patrick +3
Suffolk/7News2/21 - 2/24500 RV252333Patrick +8
Boston Globe1/2 - 1/6554 LV192330Patrick +7
Rasmussen Reports11/23 - 11/231000 LV282633Patrick +5
Suffolk/7News11/4 - 11/8600 RV152638Patrick +12
Rasmussen Reports10/22 - 10/22500 LV242334Patrick +10
Suffolk/7News9/12 - 9/15500 RV142336Patrick +13
Boston Globe7/15 - 7/21498 LV203030Tie