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2010 Governor Races

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Illinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn


Bill Brady

Bill Brady (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pat Quinn

Pat Quinn (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Illinois Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | IL-8 | IL-10 | IL-11 | IL-14 | IL-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | IL-10 | IL-11
2006: Governor | IL-6 | IL-8
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrady (R)Quinn (D)Spread
Final Results----46.146.6Quinn +0.5
RCP Average10/18 - 10/31--44.039.3Brady +4.7
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31814 LV4540Brady +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4438Brady +6
Chicago Tribune10/18 - 10/22700 LV4339Brady +4
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/20625 LV4440Brady +4

All Illinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Illinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn
44.0Brady (R)+4.7
39.3Quinn (D)

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Race Analysis

11/2/10 7:45am -- Brady has endured a barrage of attacks, and third parties are getting a huge portion of the vote here.  But his lead over Quinn is holding up, and he is the favorite today.

10/10/10 -- The polls in this race have recently been all over the place, varying from an 8-point Brady lead to a 6-point Quinn lead.  One thing that seems consistent is that the polls show Quinn's base coming home; his average in the polls has improved from the low 30s to the high 30s.  Two things could be going on here: the Democrats' advertisements against Brady may be taking their toll, or Quinn could be enjoying a "dead cat bounce."  Regardless, an incumbent pulling his numbers up into the high 30s isn't all that much to celebrate.

----------Race Preview---------

Had you asked a political observer 30 years ago whether an open governor’s race in Illinois would be competitive, you’d likely have received a look normally reserved for those who walk off of UFO’s. Illinois has historically been one of the more politically competitive states in the United States, and a governor’s race in Illinois was supposed to be close.

But in recent years it has become more surprising to hear that a Republican was competitive for a seat in Illinois. Even while beset by allegations of ethical impropriety, Governor Rod Blagojevich was able to win re-election handily in 2006 against the lone Republican statewide officeholder. That set off a series of events that led to the current competitive race. In early 2009, Blagojevich was unanimously impeached and removed from office, leaving his Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn in charge of the state.

That’s really the root of Quinn’s problems. It’s not easy to be a governor of any state in these troubling economic times, but adding “Rod Blagojevich’s Lieutenant” to the resume would be a kiss of death in all but the most Democratic states. Of course, Illinois is one of the most Democratic states, and the GOP may have helped the governor by nominating Bill Brady, a conservative downstate state senator. There is a reasonable chance that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents will come home to Quinn in the end. 

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrady (R)Quinn (D)Spread
Final Results----46.146.6Quinn +0.5
RCP Average10/18 - 10/31--44.039.3Brady +4.7
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31814 LV4540Brady +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4438Brady +6
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/23 - 10/231000 LV4439Brady +5
Chicago Tribune10/18 - 10/22700 LV4339Brady +4
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/20750 LV4537Brady +8
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/20625 LV4440Brady +4
PPP (D)10/14 - 10/16557 LV4241Brady +1
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12750 LV4640Brady +6
The Simon Poll/SIU9/30 - 10/10758 LV3830Brady +8
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4500 LV4638Brady +8
Suffolk University9/30 - 10/3500 LV3743Quinn +6
CNN/Time9/24 - 9/28828 LV4038Brady +2
Chicago Tribune9/24 - 9/28600 LV3839Quinn +1
PPP (D)9/23 - 9/26470 LV4235Brady +7
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/25 - 9/251000 LV4636Brady +10
WeAskAmerica9/13 - 9/131330 LV4232Brady +10
Rasmussen Reports9/12 - 9/12750 LV5037Brady +13
Chicago Tribune8/28 - 9/1600 LV3732Brady +5
Rasmussen Reports8/23 - 8/23750 LV4941Brady +8
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/15576 LV3930Brady +9
Rasmussen Reports8/9 - 8/9750 LV4835Brady +13
Rasmussen Reports7/26 - 7/26750 LV4437Brady +7
Rasmussen Reports7/7 - 7/7500 LV4340Brady +3
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/13552 LV3430Brady +4
Rasmussen Reports6/7 - 6/7500 LV4736Brady +11
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/3 - 5/5600 LV3936Brady +3
Rasmussen Reports4/28 - 4/28500 LV4538Brady +7
Rasmussen Reports4/5 - 4/5500 LV4538Brady +7
PPP (D)4/1 - 4/5591 LV4333Brady +10
Rasmussen Reports3/8 - 3/8500 LV4737Brady +10
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**2/22 - 2/24600 LV3247Quinn +15