2010 Senate Races

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2010 House Races

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2010 Governor Races

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Senate 2010 Polls
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Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Barnes

Candidates

Roy Barnes

Roy Barnes (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Nathan Deal

Nathan Deal (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Georgia Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | GA-2 | GA-8 | GA-12

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | GA-8
2006: Governor | GA-8 | GA-12
2004: President | Senate | GA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBarnes (D)Deal (R)Spread
Final Results----43.152.9Deal +9.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/28--40.548.0Deal +7.5
Mason-Dixon10/26 - 10/28625 LV4047Deal +7
Landmark (R)10/26 - 10/261686 LV4249Deal +7
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV3949Deal +10
Insider Advantage10/24 - 10/242119 LV4147Deal +6

All Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Barnes Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/10/10 -- Sure enough, Barnes' numbers have remained mired in the low 40s, while Deal is starting to approach 50 percent.  This isn't over by a longshot, but it really looks as if Barnes is just the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.

----------Race Preview---------

From January 12, 1872 through January 12, 2003, Georgia had nothing but Democratic governors. The state didn’t have a Republican base, and Democratic primaries were usually decided on a friends-and-neighbors basis, rather than on the basis of ideological or geographical splits, so the Republican Party had to be built from scratch. And so, the GOP grew in urban Atlanta, spread to suburban Atlanta, and only in 2002 broke through to the rural reaches of the state.

That year, Sonny Perdue ousted Roy Barnes, who had been mentioned as a possible presidential contender. Perdue is term-limited in 2010, and both Republicans and Democrats had high-profile fights for the nomination. For the Democrats, former Governor Barnes is making a comeback bid, and handily defeated Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the primary. On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Karen Handel lost narrowly to Congressman Nathan Deal.

The $64,000 question in the race is Barnes. Most polling has shown Barnes getting about 44 percent of the vote, close to the 46 percent he received in 2002, while the crosstabs tend to show Barnes has already solidified his Democratic base, while independents and Republicans are in flux. This probably leaves the Republicans with the most room for growth. There’s a reasonable chance that, come November, Georgians will ultimately remember why they fired Barnes in the first place (see also Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 Mississippi Senate race).

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBarnes (D)Deal (R)Spread
Final Results----43.152.9Deal +9.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/28--40.548.0Deal +7.5
Mason-Dixon10/26 - 10/28625 LV4047Deal +7
Landmark (R)10/26 - 10/261686 LV4249Deal +7
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV3949Deal +10
Insider Advantage10/24 - 10/242119 LV4147Deal +6
SurveyUSA10/21 - 10/24601 LV3949Deal +10
Landmark (R)10/19 - 10/193277 LV3947Deal +8
Insider Advantage10/18 - 10/18507 LV4045Deal +5
Insider Advantage10/10 - 10/10522 LV4149Deal +8
Rasmussen Reports10/6 - 10/6750 LV4150Deal +9
Insider Advantage9/27 - 9/27412 LV3745Deal +8
Rasmussen Reports9/21 - 9/21500 LV3945Deal +6
Insider Advantage9/16 - 9/16632 LV4242Tie
Mason-Dixon9/13 - 9/15625 LV4145Deal +4
SurveyUSA9/10 - 9/12599 LV3849Deal +11
Insider Advantage8/18 - 8/18554 RV4145Deal +4
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/11500 LV4251Deal +9
Rasmussen Reports7/21 - 7/21500 LV4349Deal +6
Rasmussen Reports5/20 - 5/20500 LV4047Deal +7
Rasmussen Reports4/22 - 4/22500 LV3946Deal +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**4/5 - 4/7600 LV4442Barnes +2
Rasmussen Reports3/17 - 3/17500 LV4043Deal +3
PPP (D)2/26 - 2/28596 LV4338Barnes +5
Rasmussen Reports2/18 - 2/18500 LV3743Deal +6