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Colorado Governor - Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo

Candidates

John Hickenlooper

John Hickenlooper (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Dan Maes

Dan Maes (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tom Tancredo

Tom Tancredo

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHickenlooper (D)Maes (R)Tancredo Spread
Final Results----50.711.136.8Hickenlooper +13.9
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--47.37.043.3Hickenlooper +4.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/311059 LV48843Hickenlooper +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV47644Hickenlooper +3
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28615 LV47--43Hickenlooper +4

All Colorado Governor - Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Colorado Governor - Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo
47.3Hickenlooper (D)+4.0
7.0Maes (R)
43.3Tancredo

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Race Analysis

11/2/10, 7:10am -- Hickenlooper is still probably the favorite, but the Tancredo surge is real.  If Republican voters go into the booth and decide that they're throwing away their voting pulling the level for Dan Maes, Tancredo could win.

10/26/10 -- The preponderance of the evidence suggests that the Tancredo surge is real.  There are very few undecideds at this point, and there might be just enough Republicans voting for Maes to keep Tancredo from pulling in the 47 percent of the vote or so that he needs to win.

10/9/10 -- Could Tom Tancredo pull this off?  That's the question some analysts are beginning to ask themselves here.  Mayor Hickenlooper seems to be stuck at around 45 percent in the polls, while Tancredo steadily eats away at Dan Maes' Republican support.  But there's a certain level below which a Republican simply won't fall.  As long as that level in Colorado is above 10 percent, Hickenlooper should be alright, but if it is lower, he might have to start sweating.

----------Race Preview---------

Somewhere in Denver, Bill Ritter is kicking himself for not running for re-election. While Democrats have dominated the state’s gubernatorial races in recent decades, winning seven of the last 10 elections, Ritter’s job approval and re-elect numbers against former Representative Scott McInnis were very weak for most of last year. So despite Ritter’s seemingly broad mandate in 2006, when he rolled to a 57%-40% win over Republican Representative Bob Beauprez, the governor announced that he would not run for re-election.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper jumped in, and kept his numbers reasonably close to McInnis’s. Then a bombshell dropped on the race. A story surfaced that McInnis had plagiarized an article when he was a fellow for an organization called the Hasan Family Foundation. He received $300,000 for his work at the organization. McInnis tried to blame the incident on a staffer, who denied that he had conducted the plagiarism.

In the wake of the revelation, polls showed a race that was still close, but with Hickenlooper moving into the lead. McInnis lost the Republican primary to political newcomer Dan Maes, who has come under fire for misrepresenting his law enforcement experience in Kansas during the 1980s. Further complicating matters, former Congressman Tom Tancredo entered the race as the American Constitution Party candidate.

As a result of the upheaval on the right, the Democrats’ odds of holding the governorship have improved dramatically over the past few months.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHickenlooper (D)Maes (R)Tancredo Spread
Final Results----50.711.136.8Hickenlooper +13.9
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--47.37.043.3Hickenlooper +4.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/311059 LV48843Hickenlooper +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV47644Hickenlooper +3
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV47542Hickenlooper +5
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28615 LV47--43Hickenlooper +4
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26829 LV511037Hickenlooper +14
PPP (D)10/21 - 10/23818 LV47544Hickenlooper +3
Denver Post/SurveyUSA10/19 - 10/21621 LV49939Hickenlooper +10
Magellan Strategies (R)10/20 - 10/201067 LV44943Hickenlooper +1
Reuters/Ipsos10/15 - 10/17405 LV461435Hickenlooper +11
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/16 - 10/161000 LV451040Hickenlooper +5
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14750 LV421238Hickenlooper +4
Rasmussen Reports10/3 - 10/3750 LV431635Hickenlooper +8
PPP (D)9/30 - 10/2834 LV471333Hickenlooper +14
Denver Post/SurveyUSA9/28 - 9/30647 LV461534Hickenlooper +12
McClatchy/Marist9/26 - 9/28537 LV481929Hickenlooper +19
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/25 - 9/251000 LV441534Hickenlooper +10
CNN/Time9/17 - 9/21860 LV472129Hickenlooper +18
Rasmussen Reports9/12 - 9/12750 LV462125Hickenlooper +21
POS/FM38/28 - 9/1473 LV482515Hickenlooper +23
Rasmussen Reports8/29 - 8/29750 LV40329Hickenlooper +8
Magellan Strategies (R)8/25 - 8/26954 LV462717Hickenlooper +19
Reuters/Ipsos8/20 - 8/22453 LV413316Hickenlooper +8
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/11750 LV433118Hickenlooper +12
PPP (D)8/7 - 8/81015 RV482322Hickenlooper +25
Rasmussen Reports8/2 - 8/2750 LV422724Hickenlooper +15
Denver Post/SurveyUSA7/27 - 7/291015 RV462424Hickenlooper +22