2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

California Governor - Whitman vs. Brown

Candidates

Jerry Brown

Jerry Brown (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Meg Whitman

Meg Whitman (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

California Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | CA-3 | CA-11 | CA-18 | CA-20 | CA-45 | CA-47

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | CA-4
2006: Governor | CA-4 | CA-11
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (D)Whitman (R)Spread
Final Results----53.141.7Brown +11.4
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--49.342.7Brown +6.6
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31882 LV5146Brown +5
SurveyUSA10/26 - 10/31587 LV4837Brown +11
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4945Brown +4

All California Governor - Whitman vs. Brown Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
California Governor - Whitman vs. Brown
49.3Brown (D)+6.6
42.7Whitman (R)

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Race Analysis

10/26/10 -- With less than a week to go, Whitman has an awful lot of ground to make up here.  Some of these pollsters may well be overstating the number of Democrats in the electorate, but even after taking that into account, Whitman is still trailing.

10/20/10 -- Republican polling firm Wilson Research sees a slight lead for Republican Meg Whitman.  But every other pollster has seen a slight Democratic lead since mid-September.

10/4/10 -- The first poll taken in the aftermath of the revelation that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman had hired an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper shows that she may be taking on water.  Rasmussen Reports shows Whitman trailing former Governor Jerry Brown 49 percent to 44 percent. 

The previous Rasmussen poll had shown Brown up by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.  It is important to note that this movement is well within the poll's error margin, so we should wait to see if other pollsters show similar movement before drawing any hard and fast conclusions.  

 

----------Race Preview---------

California gubernatorial politics are enigmatic. Although Democrats have had a massive registration advantage in California since the 1930s, they’ve only occupied the Governor’s mansion for 24 of the last 80 years. The last Democratic governorship came to a particularly inglorious end, as Gray Davis was recalled from office less than a year after winning re-election to a second term.

Davis was replaced by Republican actor and education activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger has had a tumultuous two terms, shifting to the left after being rebuked by voters on several cherished ballot initiatives. He leaves office with approval ratings hovering in the twenties and thirties, which would make a same-party succession nearly impossible in a conventional year.

But 2010 is not shaping up to be a normal year. Republicans have nominated Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, while the Democrats have nominated former Governor Jerry Brown, a fixture in California politics who was first elected statewide in 1970. The fundamentals of the state favor Brown, but the "change factor" favors Whitman, making this a great race to watch.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (D)Whitman (R)Spread
Final Results----53.141.7Brown +11.4
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--49.342.7Brown +6.6
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31882 LV5146Brown +5
SurveyUSA10/26 - 10/31587 LV4837Brown +11
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4945Brown +4
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26888 LV5144Brown +7
Field10/14 - 10/261092 LV4939Brown +10
SurveyUSA10/21 - 10/25594 LV4638Brown +8
Suffolk University10/21 - 10/24600 LV5042Brown +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/23 - 10/231000 LV5041Brown +9
PPP (D)10/21 - 10/23622 LV5342Brown +11
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV4842Brown +6
LA Times/USC10/13 - 10/20922 LV5239Brown +13
SurveyUSA10/15 - 10/18621 LV4740Brown +7
PPIC10/10 - 10/171067 LV4436Brown +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/16 - 10/161000 LV4843Brown +5
Wilson Research (R)10/13 - 10/14800 LV4445Whitman +1
Reuters/Ipsos10/12 - 10/14448 LV4844Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports10/13 - 10/13750 LV5044Brown +6
Reuters/Ipsos10/2 - 10/4448 LV5043Brown +7
Rasmussen Reports10/3 - 10/3750 LV4944Brown +5
SurveyUSA9/30 - 10/3670 LV4743Brown +4
CNN/Time9/24 - 9/28786 LV5243Brown +9
PPIC9/19 - 9/261104 LV3738Whitman +1
LA Times/USC9/15 - 9/22887 LV4944Brown +5
SurveyUSA9/19 - 9/21610 LV4643Brown +3
Field9/14 - 9/21599 LV4141Tie
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20750 LV4746Brown +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV4545Tie
PPP (D)9/14 - 9/16630 LV4742Brown +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV4349Whitman +6
CNN/Time9/2 - 9/7866 RV4648Whitman +2
Rasmussen Reports9/6 - 9/6750 LV4548Whitman +3
SurveyUSA8/31 - 9/1569 LV4047Whitman +7
Rasmussen Reports8/24 - 8/24750 LV4351Whitman +8
SurveyUSA8/9 - 8/11602 LV4344Whitman +1
Rasmussen Reports8/3 - 8/3750 LV4341Brown +2
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/25614 RV4640Brown +6
PPIC7/6 - 7/201321 LV3734Brown +3
Rasmussen Reports7/12 - 7/12500 LV4647Whitman +1
SurveyUSA7/8 - 7/11614 LV3946Whitman +7
Field6/22 - 7/51005 LV4443Brown +1
Reuters/Ipsos6/25 - 6/27600 RV4539Brown +6
Rasmussen Reports6/9 - 6/9500 LV4544Brown +1
LA Times/USC5/19 - 5/26521 LV4438Brown +6
Rasmussen Reports5/24 - 5/24500 LV4541Brown +4
PPP (D)5/21 - 5/23921 RV4836Brown +12
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/17 - 5/19600 LV4642Brown +4
PPIC5/9 - 5/161168 LV4237Brown +5
Rasmussen Reports4/19 - 4/19500 LV4438Brown +6
LA Times/USC3/23 - 3/301500 RV4144Whitman +3
PPIC3/9 - 3/161102 LV3945Whitman +6
Rasmussen Reports3/15 - 3/15500 LV4040Tie
Field3/9 - 3/15748 LV4346Whitman +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/8 - 3/10600 LV4541Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports2/15 - 2/15500 LV4343Tie
Rasmussen Reports1/19 - 1/19500 LV4339Brown +4
PPIC1/12 - 1/191223 LV4136Brown +5
Field1/5 - 1/17958 LV4636Brown +10
PPIC12/1 - 12/8963 LV4337Brown +6
Rasmussen Reports11/17 - 11/17500 LV4141Tie
Field9/18 - 10/51005 RV5029Brown +21
Rasmussen Reports9/24 - 9/24500 LV4435Brown +9
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**8/9 - 8/12600 LV4236Brown +6