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Arkansas Governor - Keet vs. Beebe

Candidates

Mike Beebe

Mike Beebe (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Jim Keet

Jim Keet (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arkansas Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Senate | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBeebe (D)Keet (R)Spread
Final Results----64.533.6Beebe +30.9
RCP Average10/15 - 10/28--60.335.3Beebe +25.0
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV6038Beebe +22
CNN/Time10/15 - 10/19809 LV6235Beebe +27
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/19625 LV5933Beebe +26

All Arkansas Governor - Keet vs. Beebe Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Arkansas Governor - Keet vs. Beebe
60.3Beebe (D)+25.0
35.3Keet (R)

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Race Analysis

The ascent of the Republican Party in most Southern states usually involved some combination of three factors: A vestigial Republican Party left over from Reconstruction providing a base of support, a split in the Democratic Party between conservatives and populists, and a booming metropolis that attracted Northern Republicans southward. States with all three factors present realigned early (Virginia, Texas) while states with fewer factors took longer to fully realign (Georgia, Alabama).

Arkansas is a somewhat unique Southern state. There was a small Republican Party in the Northwest, but there was never a booming metropolis attracting Northerners to the state, and it traditionally didn't have a deep divide between conservatives and populists. The state also produced talented, centrist Democratic politicians who have managed to keep a strong coalition together in the state. As a result, Arkansas has the strongest Democratic Party in the South today.

Mike Beebe is squarely in the tradition of these centrist Arkansas Democrats and seems to have largely insulated himself from the general decline in the fortunes of Democratic governors across the country. If things truly go south for the Democrats, though, he could be in trouble.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBeebe (D)Keet (R)Spread
Final Results----64.533.6Beebe +30.9
RCP Average10/15 - 10/28--60.335.3Beebe +25.0
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV6038Beebe +22
CNN/Time10/15 - 10/19809 LV6235Beebe +27
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/19625 LV5933Beebe +26
Rasmussen Reports9/30 - 9/30500 LV5141Beebe +10
Talk Business Poll9/27 - 9/28588 LV4935Beebe +14
Reuters/Ipsos9/17 - 9/19436 LV5537Beebe +18
Mason-Dixon9/12 - 9/14625 LV5433Beebe +21
Rasmussen Reports8/18 - 8/18500 LV5333Beebe +20
Rasmussen Reports7/20 - 7/20500 LV5040Beebe +10
Reuters/Ipsos7/16 - 7/18600 RV5735Beebe +22
Talk Business Poll7/17 - 7/17793 LV5041Beebe +9
Rasmussen Reports6/15 - 6/15500 LV5733Beebe +24
Rasmussen Reports5/19 - 5/19500 LV5338Beebe +15