News & Election Videos

Virginia Senate

Open Seat (R)

Candidates

Jim Gilmore

Jim Gilmore (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mark Warner

Mark Warner (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Virginia Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Solid Dem

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: VA-11


Key 2006 State Races:
Senate | VA-2

2004 President:
Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGilmore (R)Warner (D)Spread
Final Results----33.865.0Warner +31.2
RCP Average10/25 - 11/1--32.761.3Warner +28.6
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/1672 LV3559Warner +24
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/30625 LV3162Warner +31
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/26671 LV3263Warner +31

All Virginia Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

Two former governors are vying for the chance to succeed John Warner, the distinguished, five-term Republican senator from Virginia.

Mark Warner is considered a successful Democratic governor in a southern, Republican state. This is mostly true, though the increasingly influential Northern Virginia is considered  part of the D.C. metro area rather than part of the South, and it\'s helping make Virginia more purple than red. Warner worked with a GOP-controlled Legislature to vastly improve the state\'s budget situation, and his lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, went on to win the governorship in 2005, thanks in large part to Warner\'s popularity. It was for these reasons that Warner was viewed by many as a viable candidate for president -- he began running for the office in 2006, but dropped his bid by October of that year.

Jim Gilmore was the immediate predecessor of Mark Warner in the governor\'s mansion and succeeded George Allen. It was a campaign promise to end Virginia\'s automobile property tax that got Gilmore elected governor, and he went on to cut taxes throughout his tenure. He, too, flirted with a presidential run, attempting to paint himself as the most conservative of the Republican candidates, but dropped his bid in July 2007. Before Gilmore jumped into the Senate race, Rep. Tom Davis was considered the likely Republican nominee. But after the state GOP decided on a nominating convention rather than a primary, Davis opted against running and announced his expected retirement from the House. Gilmore would have been favored to defeat the more moderate Davis at convention, as it often attracts more conservative supporters.

Gilmore had a more difficult nominating convention than many expected, defeating State Del. Bob Marshall with just 50.3% of the May 31 convention votes. This result could show a split in Gilmore\'s base and spell trouble for him in November. While Virginia has voted Republican in 10 straight presidential elections, Bush never won more than 54% and in 2006 a Republican senator was ousted. Warner\'s popularity in the state has continued on since he left office in January 2006; and with the influence the largely-Democratic Northern Virginia has had on recent statewide elections, he is the favorite to win this seat.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2006: Webb (D) 50, Allen (R) 49
2002: J. Warner (R) 83, Spannaus (I) 10
2000: Allen (R) 52, Robb (D) 48
1996: J. Warner (R) 52, M. Warner (D) 47

President
2004: Bush (R) 54, Kerry (D) 45
2000: Bush (R) 52, Gore (D) 44
1996: Dole (R) 51, Clinton (D) 41

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 7,712,091
Registered Voters: n/a
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.1% | White Collar 63.7% | Gray Collar 14.2%
Race: White 70.2% | Hispanic 4.7% | Asian 3.7% | Black 19.4%

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGilmore (R)Warner (D)Spread
Final Results----33.865.0Warner +31.2
RCP Average10/25 - 11/1--32.761.3Warner +28.6
PPP (D)10/31 - 11/21557 LV3662Warner +26
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/1672 LV3559Warner +24
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/30625 LV3162Warner +31
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/26671 LV3263Warner +31
Associated Press/GfK10/22 - 10/26601 LV3258Warner +26
Washington Post10/22 - 10/25784 LV3161Warner +30
VCU10/20 - 10/22817 LV2761Warner +34
Mason-Dixon10/20 - 10/21625 LV3358Warner +25
SurveyUSA10/18 - 10/19652 LV3660Warner +24
Rasmussen10/16 - 10/16700 LV3661Warner +25
Washington Post10/4 - 10/81144 A3161Warner +30
PPP (D)10/6 - 10/7917 LV3158Warner +27
SurveyUSA10/4 - 10/5666 LV3161Warner +30
Suffolk10/3 - 10/5600 LV2557Warner +32
Mason-Dixon9/29 - 10/1625 LV3157Warner +26
Rasmussen9/25 - 9/25700 LV3460Warner +26
Mason-Dixon9/17 - 9/22625 LV2861Warner +33
SurveyUSA9/19 - 9/21716 LV3457Warner +23
ABC News/Wash Post9/18 - 9/21698 LV3161Warner +30
PPP (D)9/13 - 9/141090 LV3357Warner +24
SurveyUSA9/12 - 9/14732 LV3457Warner +23
CNU Virginia Poll9/10 - 9/14500 RV3054Warner +24
SurveyUSA9/5 - 9/7717 LV3556Warner +21
PPP (D)8/20 - 8/221036 LV3255Warner +23
Rasmussen8/12 - 8/12500 LV3561Warner +26
SurveyUSA8/8 - 8/10655 LV3458Warner +24
PPP (D)7/17 - 7/201327 LV3257Warner +25
Rasmussen7/16 - 7/16500 LV3659Warner +23
PPP (D)6/14 - 6/16893 LV2859Warner +31
Rasmussen6/12 - 6/12500 LV3360Warner +27
Rasmussen5/8 - 5/8500 LV3755Warner +18
Rasmussen3/26 - 3/26500 LV3955Warner +16
Rasmussen2/19 - 2/19500 LV3757Warner +20
Rasmussen1/3 - 1/3500 LV3853Warner +15
SurveyUSA10/27 - 10/30644 RV3557Warner +22
SurveyUSA9/14 - 9/16783 RV3260Warner +28

All Commentary & News Stories

- Davis Unloads On State GOP - Richmond Times-Dispatch

- Gilmore Edges Out Marshall at GOP Convo - Richmond Times-Dispatch

- Marshall Seeks Concessions From Gilmore - Washington Post

- A New Warner Poised For Victory - Time

- Warner Tries, Tries Again - Times-Dispatch