News & Election Videos

Oregon Senate

Candidates

Jeff Merkley

Jeff Merkley (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Gordon Smith*

Gordon Smith* (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oregon Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:


Key 2006 State Races: Governor

2004 President:
Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMerkley (D)Smith (R)Spread
Final Results----48.945.6Merkley +3.3
RCP Average10/23 - 10/30--47.842.5Merkley +5.3
Rasmussen10/30 - 10/30500 LV4946Merkley +3
Research 200010/27 - 10/29600 LV4842Merkley +6
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/26672 LV4942Merkley +7
Portland Tribune10/23 - 10/25500 RV4540Merkley +5

All Oregon Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

With low approval ratings at home, Gordon Smith appears to be in serious trouble this year. His ratings in Oregon have been close to that of Pres. Bush, who, despite his absence at the top of the ballot, could still prove to be a drag on Smith\'s campaign. Though Smith has one of the most moderate records in the Senate, Democrats are poised to snatch this seat.

Democrats got their candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who faced a bitter and competitive primary against activist Steve Novick. Merkley is in for another tough campaign now, as he takes on a well-funded and seasoned Smith.

In 2006, Democrats easily won re-election to the governorship and also wrestled away control of the State House. The state has voted for a Democrat in the last five presidential eletions.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Wyden (D) 63, King (R) 32
2002: Smith (R) 56, Bradbury (D) 40
1998: Wyden (D) 61, Lim (R) 34
1996: Smith (R) 56, Bruggere (D) 46

President
2004: Kerry (D) 51, Bush (R) 47
2000: Gore (D) 47, Bush (R) 47
1996: Clinton (D) 47, Dole (R) 39

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 3,747,455
Registered Voters:
Dem 764,255 | Rep 687,898 | Other 510,409  
Occupation: Blue Collar 23.9% | White Collar 59.1% | Gray Collar 17.0%
Race: White 83.5% | Hispanic 8.0% | Asian 2.9% | Two+ races 2.4%

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMerkley (D)Smith (R)Spread
Final Results----48.945.6Merkley +3.3
RCP Average10/23 - 10/30--47.842.5Merkley +5.3
Rasmussen10/30 - 10/30500 LV4946Merkley +3
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301424 LV5143Merkley +8
Research 200010/27 - 10/29600 LV4842Merkley +6
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/26672 LV4942Merkley +7
Portland Tribune10/23 - 10/25500 RV4540Merkley +5
Riley Research10/10 - 10/20499 RV3635Merkley +1
Research 200010/14 - 10/15600 LV4741Merkley +6
Rasmussen10/14 - 10/14700 LV4747Tie
SurveyUSA10/11 - 10/12584 LV4641Merkley +5
Research 20009/22 - 9/24600 LV4540Merkley +5
SurveyUSA9/22 - 9/23708 LV4442Merkley +2
Rasmussen9/15 - 9/15700 LV4546Smith +1
Portland Tribune9/11 - 9/14500 RV3942Smith +3
Rasmussen8/7 - 8/7500 LV4450Smith +6
SurveyUSA8/2 - 8/4629 LV3749Smith +12
Rasmussen7/15 - 7/15500 LV4646Tie
Rasmussen6/11 - 6/11500 LV3847Smith +9
Rasmussen5/7 - 5/7500 LV4245Smith +3
Rasmussen3/25 - 3/25500 LV3447Smith +13
Rasmussen2/13 - 2/13500 LV3048Smith +18
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/28641 RV3948Smith +9

All Commentary & News Stories

- GOP Sen Cites Obama Ties - Politics Nation

- Can Smith Run Far Enough Away From GOP? - AP

- Smith, Merkley Chase Last-Minute Voters - Oregonian