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New Mexico Senate

Open Seat (R)

Candidates

Steve Pearce

Steve Pearce (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tom Udall

Tom Udall (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Mexico Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Likely Dem

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: NM-1
| NM-2

Key 2006 State Races: Governor | NM-1

2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSamplePearce (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results----38.861.2Udall +22.4
RCP Average9/29 - 10/31--39.754.3Udall +14.6
SurveyUSA10/29 - 10/31664 LV4256Udall +14
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 lv4156Udall +15
Albuquerque Journal9/29 - 10/2659 LV3651Udall +15

All New Mexico Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

Sen. Pete Domenici announced in October 2007 that he would not seek re-election. Now, New Mexico\'s House delegation will undergo a complete turnover in the 111th Congress, as all three House members gave up their seats to run for Domenici\'s Senate seat.  

GOP Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce duked it out for the Republican nomination, but Pearce narrowly won the June 3 primary, winning 51%-49%. Pearce faces Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in the general election.

Wilson would have been considered vulnerable had she decided to run for re-election, as she held off a challenge in 2006 by only 861 votes. Wilson\'s district voted for both John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two presidential elections. Pearce\'s district leans Republican, and the three-term congressman would have likely been heavily favored to win re-election. 

Udall, who comes from a political family including two cousins currently in Congress (Mark Udall in Colorado and Gordon Smith in Oregon), escaped a competitive and possibly expensive primary. Although Udall began the race as the favorite to win, both parties are likely to spend a lot of money here, as the general election race should be extremely competitive. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes in 2004 after losing it to Gore in 2000 by just 365 votes.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2006: Bingaman (D) 71, McCulloch (R) 29
2002: Domenici (R) 65, Tristani (D) 35
2000: Bingaman (D) 62, Redmond (R) 38
1996: Domenici (R) 65, Trujillo (D) 30

President
2004: Bush (R) 50, Kerry (D) 49
2000: Gore (R) 48, Bush (R) 48
1996: Clinton (D) 49, Dole (R) 42

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 1,969,915
Registered Voters: Dem 526,981 | Rep 350,400 | Other 185,417  
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.2% | White Collar 59.9% | Gray Collar 17.9%
Race: White 44.7% | Hispanic 42.1% | Asian 1.0% | Black 1.7%

Polling Data

PollDateSamplePearce (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results----38.861.2Udall +22.4
RCP Average9/29 - 10/31--39.754.3Udall +14.6
SurveyUSA10/29 - 10/31664 LV4256Udall +14
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301537 LV3958Udall +19
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 lv4156Udall +15
Rasmussen10/13 - 10/13700 LV3757Udall +20
SurveyUSA10/12 - 10/13568 LV4058Udall +18
Albuquerque Journal9/29 - 10/2659 LV3651Udall +15
Rasmussen10/1 - 10/1700 LV4155Udall +14
SurveyUSA9/29 - 9/30698 LV3958Udall +19
PPP (D)9/17 - 9/191037 LV3757Udall +20
SurveyUSA9/14 - 9/16671 LV4156Udall +15
Rasmussen9/8 - 9/8700 LV4451Udall +7
Rasmussen8/20 - 8/20700 LV4452Udall +8
Rasmussen7/24 - 7/24700 LV3561Udall +26
Rasmussen6/19 - 6/19500 LV3058Udall +28
SurveyUSA5/30 - 6/11869 RV3660Udall +24
Rasmussen5/14 - 5/14500 LV3753Udall +16
SurveyUSA5/12 - 5/141827 RV3660Udall +24
Rasmussen4/8 - 4/8500 LV4054Udall +14
Rasmussen2/17 - 2/18500 LV4250Udall +8
SurveyUSA11/16 - 11/181737 RV4054Udall +14
Research 200011/5 - 11/7600 LV3754Udall +17
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Assoc (D)10/23 - 10/27500 LV3350Udall +17
SurveyUSA10/5 - 1/7514 RV3755Udall +18

All Commentary & News Stories

- Battleground New Mexico - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics