News & Election Videos

North Carolina Senate

Candidates

Elizabeth Dole*

Elizabeth Dole* (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Kay Hagan

Kay Hagan (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

North Carolina Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up

Senate Race:
Governor Race:

Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: NC-8

Key 2006 State Races: NC-11

2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)
2004 Senate: Bowles (D) vs. Burr (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDole (R)Hagan (D)Spread
Final Results----44.252.7Hagan +8.5
RCP Average10/28 - 11/2--45.049.3Hagan +4.3
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2682 LV4350Hagan +7
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/30625 LV4645Dole +1
Research 200010/28 - 10/30600 LV4550Hagan +5
Rasmussen10/29 - 10/29700 LV4652Hagan +6

All North Carolina Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

If the Democrats are to pick up that coveted 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority, this is a seat they\'ll likely need to pick up. Elizabeth Dole had a tough 2006, when Republicans lost control of the Senate under her NRSC chairmanship watch, but knocking her out of office will be no easy feat.

This seat has been in Republican hands for the last 35 years. A strong challenge to Dole could have come from the term-limited Gov. Mike Easley, one of the seven Democratic congressmen, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue or Treas. Richard Moore. But Easley and the House delegation decided against it, and Perdue and Moore had their eyes set on the governor\'s mansion.

Despite this, Democrats should still mount a competitive campaign with state Sen. Kay Hagan, who easily won the May 6 primary. Hagan, who has shown the ability to fundraise, is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, a three-term U.S. Senator and two-term Governor of Florida.

Dole, running for re-election for the first time, has focused on North Carolina issues during her first term, including her quest for the Lumbee Indians to receive the tribal benefits they have so far been denied. Her attention turned away from North Carolina during the last election cycle, however, as she ran the GOP Senate campaign arm.

The state has voted Republican in the last seven presidential elections, and Dole\'s recognizable name alone should win her a chunk of votes. Democrats, however, hold a majority of the state\'s House delegation, and Hagan could benefit from the national tide that looks to be in the Democrats\' favor.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Burr (R) 52, Bowles (D) 47
2002: Dole (R) 54, Bowles (D) 45
1998: Edwards (D) 51, Faircloth (R) 47
1996: Helms (R) 53, Gantt (D) 46

President
2004: Bush (R) 56, Kerry (D) 44
2000: Bush (R) 56, Gore (D) 43
1996: Dole (R) 49, Clinton (D) 44

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 9,061,032 
Registered Voters: Dem 44.8% | Rep 34.3% | Other 20.9%
Occupation: Blue Collar 29.7% | White Collar 56.0% | Gray Collar 14.3%
Race: White 70.2% | Black 21.4 % | Hispanic 4.7% | Asian 1.4%

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDole (R)Hagan (D)Spread
Final Results----44.252.7Hagan +8.5
RCP Average10/28 - 11/2--45.049.3Hagan +4.3
PPP (D)10/31 - 11/22100 LV4451Hagan +7
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2682 LV4350Hagan +7
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/30625 LV4645Dole +1
Research 200010/28 - 10/30600 LV4550Hagan +5
Rasmussen10/29 - 10/29700 LV4652Hagan +6
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)10/27 - 10/29600 LV4345Hagan +2
CNN/Time10/23 - 10/28690 LV4453Hagan +9
National Journal/FD10/23 - 10/27402 RV4345Hagan +2
PPP (D)10/25 - 10/261038 LV4548Hagan +3
Associated Press/GfK10/22 - 10/26601 LV4347Hagan +4
NBC/Mason-Dixon10/22 - 10/24800 LV4642Dole +4
WSOC-TV10/20 - 10/21500 LV4344Hagan +1
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)10/18 - 10/20600 RV4144Hagan +3
SurveyUSA10/18 - 10/20627 LV4546Hagan +1
PPP (D)10/18 - 10/191200 LV4249Hagan +7
Research 200010/14 - 10/15600 LV4549Hagan +4
PPP (D)10/11 - 10/121196 LV4446Hagan +2
Rasmussen10/8 - 10/8700 LV4449Hagan +5
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)10/6 - 10/8600 RV4245Hagan +3
WSOC-TV10/6 - 10/7500 LV4344Hagan +1
SurveyUSA10/5 - 10/6617 LV4443Dole +1
PPP (D)10/4 - 10/51202 LV4049Hagan +9
PPP (D)9/27 - 9/281041 LV3846Hagan +8
Rasmussen9/23 - 9/23500 LV4548Hagan +3
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)9/17 - 9/20600 LV4341Dole +2
PPP (D)9/17 - 9/191060 LV4146Hagan +5
Rasmussen9/18 - 9/18500 LV4551Hagan +6
Research 20009/8 - 9/10600 LV4842Dole +6
PPP (D)9/9 - 9/9626 LV4243Hagan +1
SurveyUSA9/6 - 9/8671 LV4840Dole +8
Democracy Corps (D)8/20 - 8/26852 LV4550Hagan +5
PPP (D)8/20 - 8/23904 LV3942Hagan +3
InsiderAdvantage8/19 - 8/19614 LV4040Tie
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)8/14 - 8/17600 RV4441Dole +3
SurveyUSA8/9 - 8/11655 LV4641Dole +5
Research 20007/28 - 7/30600 LV5042Dole +8
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/27823 LV4940Dole +9
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)7/14 - 7/16600 LV4738Dole +9
Rasmussen7/15 - 7/15500 LV5443Dole +11
SurveyUSA7/12 - 7/14676 LV5442Dole +12
PPP (D)6/26 - 6/291048 LV5137Dole +14
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)6/11 - 6/13600 RV4838Dole +10
Rasmussen6/10 - 6/10500 LV5339Dole +14
PPP (D)5/28 - 5/29543 LV4739Dole +8
SurveyUSA5/17 - 5/19713 LV5046Dole +4
Civitas/TelOpinion (R)5/14 - 5/17800 RV4543Dole +2
PPP (D)5/8 - 5/9616 LV4843Dole +5
Rasmussen5/8 - 5/8500 LV4748Hagan +1
Research 20004/28 - 4/30600 LV4841Dole +7
Rasmussen4/10 - 4/10500 LV5239Dole +13
Rasmussen12/19 - 12/19500 LV5535Dole +20
Research 200012/16 - 12/18600 LV4639Dole +7

All Commentary & News Stories

- MoveOn.org Targets Elizabeth Dole's Senate Race - CNN

- Dole Leads Kos Poll - The Scorecard

- Hagan Widens Lead - Raleigh News & Observer

- Dole Loans Campaign $3M - Raleigh News & Observer

- Hagan's Country Club Troubles - Raleigh News & Observer

- Dole, Hagan on Final Vote Drives - Charlotte Observer

- Hagan Challenges 'godless' Claim in Dole Ad - Charlotte Observer

- Dole Lawyers: 'godless' Ad Is Truthful - Raleigh News & Observer

- Dole Campaign Halts 'Godless' Ad - Raleigh News & Observer

- Dole, Hagan Finishing Pitch to Voters - Raleigh News & Observer