News & Election Videos

Kentucky Senate

Candidates

Bruce Lunsford

Bruce Lunsford (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mitch McConnell*

Mitch McConnell* (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Kentucky Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Toss Up

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: KY-3


Key 2006 State Races: KY-3 | KY-4

2004 Senate: Mongiardo (D) vs. Bunning (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLunsford (D)McConnell (R)Spread
Final Results----47.152.9McConnell +5.8
RCP Average10/27 - 11/1--43.849.5McConnell +5.7
SurveyUSA10/29 - 11/1616 LV4553McConnell +8
Rasmussen10/29 - 10/29500 LV4451McConnell +7
Research 200010/27 - 10/29600 LV4447McConnell +3
Courier-Journal10/27 - 10/29817 LV4247McConnell +5

All Kentucky Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is running for his fifth term in what is usually a GOP-friendly state (though Bill Clinton won twice here). All signs should point to him coasting to re-election, but McConnell, though favored to retain his seat, doesn\'t appear to be counting on returning to Congress just yet.

By the beginning of 2008, McConnell had already amassed a large amount of fundraising dollars and was running TV ads in Kentucky touting his Senate accomplishments. Most entrenched incumbents don\'t need to do this at such an early date.

In the general, McConnell is being challenged by Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman who twice came up short in the Democratic primary for governor. He defeated a fellow entrepreneur in the Democratic primary, and should be able to at least somewhat self-finance his campaign against McConnell.

The state just voted out its scandal-plagued Repbulican governor by an 18-point margin in favor of a Democrat. This won\'t necessarily affect McConnell, but his ties to the unpopular Bush administration could prove fateful. Still, McConnell enjoys a substantial fundraising lead, as well as the advantages of incumbency, that could be too much for a twice-failed statewide candidate to overcome.

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 4,241,474
Registered Voters: Dem 57.0% | Rep 36.4% | Other 6.5%
Occupation: Blue Collar 29.7% | White Collar 56.0% | Gray Collar 14.3%
Race: White 89.3% | Black 7.3% | Hispanic 1.5% | Two+ races 0.9%

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Bunning (R) 51, Mongiardo (D) 49
2002: McConnell (R) 65, Weinberg (D) 35
1998: Bunning (R) 50, Baesler (D) 49
1996: McConnell (R) 55, Beshear (D) 43

President
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
2000: Bush 57, Gore 41
1996: Clinton 46, Dole 45

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLunsford (D)McConnell (R)Spread
Final Results----47.152.9McConnell +5.8
RCP Average10/27 - 11/1--43.849.5McConnell +5.7
SurveyUSA10/29 - 11/1616 LV4553McConnell +8
Rasmussen10/29 - 10/29500 LV4451McConnell +7
Research 200010/27 - 10/29600 LV4447McConnell +3
Courier-Journal10/27 - 10/29817 LV4247McConnell +5
Rasmussen10/21 - 10/21500 LV4350McConnell +7
Research 200010/19 - 10/21600 LV4347McConnell +4
SurveyUSA10/18 - 10/20535 LV4848Tie
Research 200010/14 - 10/16600 LV4246McConnell +4
Rasmussen9/30 - 9/30500 LV4251McConnell +9
Mason-Dixon9/22 - 9/25717 LV4445McConnell +1
SurveyUSA9/21 - 9/22672 LV4649McConnell +3
Research 20009/15 - 9/17600 LV3750McConnell +13
VC Research (R)*9/7 - 9/9900 LV3552McConnell +17
SurveyUSA8/9 - 8/11636 LV4052McConnell +12
Research 20007/28 - 7/30600 LV3849McConnell +11
Rasmussen7/29 - 7/29500 LV4252McConnell +10
Rasmussen6/25 - 6/25500 LV4148McConnell +7
VC Research (R)*6/15 - 6/17601 LV3950McConnell +11
SurveyUSA6/13 - 6/16626 LV4650McConnell +4
Rasmussen5/22 - 5/22500 LV4944Lunsford +5
VC Research (R)*5/21 - 5/22600 LV3950McConnell +11
Research 20005/7 - 5/9600 LV3648McConnell +12
VC Research (R)*1/6 - 1/9600 LV3752McConnell +15

All Commentary & News Stories

- McConnell Leads Big - The Scorecard

- McConnell Takes Campaign on the Road - Louisville Courier-Journal

- McConnell Hit on Jobs - Louisville Courier-Journal

- GOP Files Criminal Complaint Against Lunsford - Louisville Courier-Journal

- McConnell Needs Kentucky to Deliver - Washington Post

- McConnell Needs Kentucky To Deliver - Washington Post

- No Dem Qualms About Defeating McConnell - The Hill

- Senate 'Title Fight' In Final Round - Louisville Courier-Journal

- Poll: Senate Race Tight in Final Stretch - Louisville Courier-Journal