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Colorado Senate

Open Seat (R)

Candidates

Bob Schaffer

Bob Schaffer (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mark Udall

Mark Udall (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Colorado Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Likely Dem

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: CO-4


Key 2006 State Races: Gov | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7

2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)
2004 Senate: Salazar (D) vs. Coors (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSchaffer (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results----42.552.8Udall +10.3
RCP Average10/21 - 10/28--38.350.8Udall +12.5
CNN/Time10/23 - 10/28690 LV4353Udall +10
National Journal/FD10/23 - 10/27409 RV3651Udall +15
Associated Press/GfK10/22 - 10/26626 LV3648Udall +12
Rocky Mtn News/CBS410/21 - 10/23500 LV3851Udall +13

All Colorado Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

In January 2007, Wayne Allard became the first senator to announce he would not run for re-election in 2008. The field of candidates to replace him quickly narrowed to Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer, with both parties able to avoid contested primaries.

Udall and Schaffer almost met in a 2004 Senate race. Udall ran for all of 24 hours, before deferring to Ken Salazar, then the state attorney general. Schaffer lost the GOP primary to Pete Coors, who went on to lose to Salazar in the general election.Their meeting this year comes as Colorado appears to be trending Democratic.

When Bill Ritter won election for governor in 2006, it marked the first time in 40 years that Democrats held the governorship and both legislative chambers. In 2004, John Kerry nearly cut in half President Bush\'s 2000 winning margin in the state, losing by just 5 points. If no open House seats change hands, and Udall wins this race, Democrats would hold the governorship, both Senate seats, and 4 of 7 House seats -- quite a change for a state that has voted Republican in nine of the last 10 presidential elections (it chose Clinton in 1992).

Schaffer has been involved with Colorado politics for just about all of his adult life. He was first elected to the state Senate at the age of 24. He served in the U.S. House from 1996-2002, leaving office only to keep a campaign pledge to serve just three terms. Udall, who has served in the House since 1998, comes from a political family: his father and uncle were congressmen from Arizona, his cousin is a congressman from New Mexico and currently running for Senate, and his cousin, Gordon Smith, is a Republican senator from Oregon.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Salazar (D) 51, Coors (R) 47
2002: Allard (R) 51, Strickland (D) 46
1998: Campbell (R) 62, Lamm (D) 35
1996: Allard (R) 51, Strickland (D) 46

President
2004: Bush (R) 52, Kerry (D) 47
2000: Bush (R) 51, Gore (D) 42
1996: Dole (R) 46, Clinton (D) 44

 

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 4,861,515
Registered Voters: Dem 880,761 | Rep 1,011,152 | Other 1,891,913  
Occupation: Blue Collar 21.0% | White Collar 64.5% | Gray Collar 14.5%
Race: White 74.5% | Hispanic 17.1% | Asian 2.2% | Black 3.7%

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSchaffer (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results----42.552.8Udall +10.3
RCP Average10/21 - 10/28--38.350.8Udall +12.5
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/302023 LV4156Udall +15
CNN/Time10/23 - 10/28690 LV4353Udall +10
National Journal/FD10/23 - 10/27409 RV3651Udall +15
Associated Press/GfK10/22 - 10/26626 LV3648Udall +12
Rocky Mtn News/CBS410/21 - 10/23500 LV3851Udall +13
Rasmussen10/16 - 10/16700 LV4451Udall +7
Suffolk10/10 - 10/13600 LV3445Udall +11
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP10/8 - 10/121088 LV4054Udall +14
PPP (D)10/8 - 10/10--3949Udall +10
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon9/29 - 10/1625 LV3843Udall +5
Rasmussen9/23 - 9/23700 LV4446Udall +2
Ciruli Assoc.9/19 - 9/23501 LV3845Udall +7
PPP (D)9/20 - 9/211084 LV4048Udall +8
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP9/14 - 9/211418 LV4048Udall +8
National Journal/FD9/11 - 9/15402 RV3841Udall +3
Suffolk8/21 - 8/24450 LV3139Udall +8
Mason-Dixon8/13 - 8/15400 LV3747Udall +10
Rasmussen8/13 - 8/13500 LV4250Udall +8
Rasmussen8/13 - 8/13500 LV4250Udall +8
Rocky Mtn News/CBS48/11 - 8/13500 RV3844Udall +6
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP.com7/14 - 7/221425 LV4444Tie
Rasmussen7/21 - 7/21500 LV4649Udall +3
PPP (D)7/9 - 7/101050 LV3847Udall +9
Rasmussen6/17 - 6/17500 LV4049Udall +9
Rasmussen5/19 - 5/19500 LV4147Udall +6
Rasmussen3/17 - 3/17500 LV4346Udall +3
McLaughlin & Associates (R)3/6 - 3/8600 LV3244Udall +12
Rasmussen2/11 - 2/11500 LV4443Schaffer +1
Rasmussen11/28 - 11/28500 LV4241Schaffer +1
SurveyUSA10/27 - 10/30662 RV4148Udall +7
Ciruli Assoc.9/12 - 9/15504 LV3536Udall +1

All Commentary & News Stories

- Schaffer to Leave Campaign Trail Due to Wife's Tumor - The Hill

- Schaffer and Udall Enter Most Important Week of Senate Campaign - Matt Wolf, Colorado Politics Examiner