Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McCain (R) | Obama (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 44.2 | 54.5 | Obama +10.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/27 - 11/3 | -- | -- | 43.7 | 51.0 | Obama +7.3 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 10/31 - 11/3 | 682 LV | 4.1 | 41 | 51 | Obama +10 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/31 - 11/3 | 657 LV | 3.9 | 43 | 52 | Obama +9 |
| Morning Call | 10/29 - 11/2 | 617 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 52 | Obama +6 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/27 - 11/2 | 1493 LV | 2.5 | 42 | 52 | Obama +10 |
| Rasmussen | 11/1 - 11/1 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 52 | Obama +6 |
| ARG | 10/29 - 10/31 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 51 | Obama +6 |
| NBC/Mason-Dixon | 10/27 - 10/28 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 47 | Obama +4 |
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Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McCain (R) | Obama (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 44.2 | 54.5 | Obama +10.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/27 - 11/3 | -- | -- | 43.7 | 51.0 | Obama +7.3 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 10/31 - 11/3 | 682 LV | 4.1 | 41 | 51 | Obama +10 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/31 - 11/3 | 657 LV | 3.9 | 43 | 52 | Obama +9 |
| PPP (D) | 10/31 - 11/2 | 1529 LV | 2.5 | 45 | 53 | Obama +8 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/31 - 11/2 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 51 | Obama +7 |
| Morning Call | 10/29 - 11/2 | 617 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 52 | Obama +6 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/27 - 11/2 | 1493 LV | 2.5 | 42 | 52 | Obama +10 |
| Rasmussen | 11/1 - 11/1 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 52 | Obama +6 |
| ARG | 10/29 - 10/31 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 51 | Obama +6 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/29 - 10/31 | 700 LV | 3.8 | 44 | 51 | Obama +7 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/27 - 10/29 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| NBC/Mason-Dixon | 10/27 - 10/28 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 47 | Obama +4 |
| CNN/Time | 10/23 - 10/28 | 768 LV | 3.5 | 43 | 55 | Obama +12 |
| Rasmussen | 10/27 - 10/27 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 46 | 53 | Obama +7 |
| Marist | 10/26 - 10/27 | 713 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 55 | Obama +14 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 10/26 - 10/26 | 588 LV | 3.8 | 42 | 51 | Obama +9 |
| Associated Press/GfK | 10/22 - 10/26 | 607 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 52 | Obama +12 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/22 - 10/26 | 1364 LV | 2.7 | 41 | 53 | Obama +12 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 10/21 - 10/26 | LV | 4.2 | 40 | 53 | Obama +13 |
| Temple Univ. | 10/20 - 10/26 | 761 LV | 3.6 | 41 | 50 | Obama +9 |
| Morning Call | 10/19 - 10/23 | 608 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 52 | Obama +12 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/21 - 10/22 | 620 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 53 | Obama +12 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/20 - 10/22 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 50 | Obama +7 |
| Big10 Battleground | 10/19 - 10/22 | 566 LV | 4.2 | 41 | 52 | Obama +11 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/16 - 10/21 | 1425 LV | 2.6 | 40 | 53 | Obama +13 |
| Morning Call | 10/16 - 10/20 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 53 | Obama +12 |
| National Journal/FD | 10/16 - 10/20 | 412 RV | 4.9 | 41 | 51 | Obama +10 |
| Susquehanna | 10/16 - 10/18 | 700 LV | 3.7 | 40 | 48 | Obama +8 |
| Morning Call | 10/10 - 10/14 | 584 LV | 4.0 | 38 | 52 | Obama +14 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/11 - 10/13 | 516 LV | 4.4 | 40 | 55 | Obama +15 |
| Marist | 10/5 - 10/8 | 757 LV | 3.5 | 41 | 53 | Obama +12 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/5 - 10/7 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 40 | 54 | Obama +14 |
| Rasmussen | 10/6 - 10/6 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 54 | Obama +13 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/5 - 10/6 | 653 LV | 3.9 | 40 | 55 | Obama +15 |
| Morning Call | 9/26 - 9/30 | 598 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 48 | Obama +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/27 - 9/29 | 832 LV | 3.4 | 39 | 54 | Obama +15 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/28 - 9/28 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 42 | 50 | Obama +8 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 9/23 - 9/28 | 767 RV | 3.5 | 38 | 45 | Obama +7 |
| Morning Call | 9/21 - 9/25 | 577 LV | 4.5 | 43 | 47 | Obama +4 |
| Rasmussen | 9/24 - 9/24 | 500 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 49 | Obama +4 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/23 - 9/24 | 1094 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 50 | Obama +6 |
| CNN/Time | 9/21 - 9/23 | 730 LV | 3.5 | 44 | 53 | Obama +9 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 9/21 - 9/23 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 47 | Obama +1 |
| National Journal/FD | 9/18 - 9/22 | 406 RV | 4.9 | 41 | 43 | Obama +2 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/21 - 9/21 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 45 | 48 | Obama +3 |
| NBC/Mason-Dixon | 9/16 - 9/18 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 46 | Obama +2 |
| Big10 Battleground | 9/14 - 9/17 | 600 RV | 4.0 | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Marist | 9/11 - 9/15 | 535 LV | 3.5 | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/14 - 9/14 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Quinnipiac | 9/5 - 9/9 | 1001 LV | 3.1 | 45 | 48 | Obama +3 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/7 - 9/7 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 9/5 - 9/7 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| CNN/Time | 8/24 - 8/26 | 669 RV | 4.0 | 43 | 48 | Obama +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 8/17 - 8/24 | 1234 LV | 2.8 | 42 | 49 | Obama +7 |
| Rasmussen | 8/19 - 8/19 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 48 | Obama +3 |
| Susquehanna | 8/11 - 8/14 | 700 LV | -- | 41 | 46 | Obama +5 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 8/4 - 8/9 | 370 LV | -- | 41 | 46 | Obama +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/23 - 7/29 | 1317 LV | 2.7 | 42 | 49 | Obama +7 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 7/25 - 7/27 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 40 | 49 | Obama +9 |
| Rasmussen | 7/23 - 7/23 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 51 | Obama +6 |
| Rasmussen | 6/22 - 6/22 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 42 | 46 | Obama +4 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 6/16 - 6/22 | 1501 RV | 2.5 | 36 | 42 | Obama +6 |
| Quinnipiac | 6/9 - 6/16 | 1511 LV | 2.5 | 40 | 52 | Obama +12 |
| Rasmussen | 5/21 - 5/21 | 500 LV | -- | 43 | 45 | Obama +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/13 - 5/20 | 1667 RV | 2.4 | 40 | 46 | Obama +6 |
| SurveyUSA | 5/16 - 5/18 | 600 RV | -- | 40 | 48 | Obama +8 |
| Susquehanna | 5/1 - 5/6 | 800 LV | -- | 39 | 46 | Obama +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 4/23 - 4/29 | 1494 RV | -- | 38 | 47 | Obama +9 |
| Rasmussen | 4/24 - 4/24 | 500 LV | -- | 44 | 43 | McCain +1 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 4/11 - 4/13 | 1200 LV | -- | 49 | 39 | McCain +10 |
| Rasmussen | 4/9 - 4/9 | 500 LV | -- | 39 | 47 | Obama +8 |
| Temple Univ. | 3/27 - 4/9 | 1175 RV | -- | 40 | 47 | Obama +7 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 3/28 - 3/31 | 1200 LV | -- | 47 | 42 | McCain +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/24 - 3/31 | 3484 RV | -- | 39 | 43 | Obama +4 |
| Rasmussen | 3/10 - 3/10 | 500 LV | -- | 44 | 43 | McCain +1 |
| Susquehanna | 3/5 - 3/10 | 700 RV | -- | 45 | 41 | McCain +4 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 3/7 - 3/9 | 1,200 LV | -- | 47 | 44 | McCain +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2/26 - 2/28 | 608 RV | -- | 47 | 42 | McCain +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/21 - 2/25 | 1872 RV | -- | 40 | 42 | Obama +2 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 2/13 - 2/18 | 640 RV | -- | 44 | 43 | McCain +1 |
| Morning Call | 2/9 - 2/17 | 588 RV | -- | 42 | 39 | McCain +3 |
| Rasmussen | 2/14 - 2/14 | 500 LV | -- | 39 | 49 | Obama +10 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/6 - 2/12 | 1419 LV | -- | 41 | 42 | Obama +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/1 - 10/8 | 878 RV | -- | 41 | 45 | Obama +4 |
| Keystone Poll | 8/24 - 9/2 | 232 RV | -- | 42 | 47 | Obama +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 8/14 - 8/20 | 1160 RV | -- | 40 | 43 | Obama +3 |
| Keystone Poll | 5/29 - 6/7 | RV | -- | 43 | 37 | McCain +6 |
| Morning Call | 5/15 - 5/21 | 416 RV | -- | 39 | 36 | McCain +3 |
| Keystone Poll | 2/19 - 2/25 | 540 RV | -- | 43 | 37 | McCain +6 |
All Commentary & News Stories
- Veep Choice Must Be Test-Marketed - Quin Hillyer, American Spectator
- Running-Mate Math: Dems Need Strickland - George Will, Washington Post
- The Dems' Surrogate Circus - John Mercurio, National Journal
- Why is Obama's Pastor in the News? - Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo
- Can McCain Paint Blue States Red? - Jonathan Martin, The Politico
- Don't Discount Clinton's Strength in Ohio - John Fortier, The Politico
- Michelle Obama: Alienated in the U.S.A. - Evan Thomas, Newsweek
- The Dems' Iraq Paralysis - Abe Greenwald, Contentions
- Talent, Not Race, Explains Obama's Success - Joe Klein, Time
- Obama's Pastor Problem - Brian Ross, Good Morning America
- The Party Won't Overrule Obama Delegate Win - Peter Brown, Politico
- Why the Democrats Won't Fracture - Mort Kondracke, Roll Call
- Spitzer and the Law Are At Fault - The Economist
- It's the War Economy, Stupid! - The Nation
- Obama's Minister of Hate - New York Post
- Wright and Ferraro Are Just Distractions - Chicago Tribune
- NRCC Audits Forged, Nearly $1M Missing - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics
- Obama's Iraq Inconsistencies - Michael Gerson, Washington Post
- Do Voters Want a More Isolationist Foreign Policy? - Andrew Kohut, NYT
- What Will Happen With Florida? - Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics
- Don't Discount Clinton's Strength in Ohio - John Fortier, The Politico
- Obama and the Minister - Ronald Kessler, Wall Street Journal
- Hillary's New Conservative Friends - Steve Kornacki, New York Observer
- Monsters & Racists & Sexists, Oh My! - Kathleen Parker, RealClearPolitics
- Adventures In Identity Politics - Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post
- Is Clinton Making Obama Unelectable? - Jonathan Chait, The New Republic
- The Risks and Rewards of Obama - Ronald Brownstein, National Journal
- What Will Obama Cost the Nation? - Ross Kaminsky, Human Events
- Someone's Going to Feel Cheated - Gloria Borger, US News & World Report
- Dems Can't Stay Silent on Iraq - Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post
- Why McCain Might Win - Michael Hirsh, Newsweek
- The SNL Effect - Howard Kurtz, Washington Post
- The Democrats' Veep Calculus - Kimberley Strassel, Wall Street Journal
- Why McCain Should Pick Jindal - James Lucier, American Spectator
- Addressing the Wright Problem - Ross Douthat, The Atlantic
- McCain on His Record, Tax Cuts & Immigration - Hannity & Colmes
- Democrats Need to Stop This Silliness - James Carville, Financial Times
- Playing by Obama's Rules - Pat Buchanan, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- Sorry, Hillary: You've Crossed the Line - Charles Pluckhahn, Seattle Times
- The Pastor Questions Aren't Going Away - Victor Davis Hanson, NRO
- Is Obama's Explanation Good Enough? - Noam Scheiber, New Republic
- On My Faith and My Church - Senator Barack Obama, Huffington Post
- How McCain Turned It Around - Chris Jones, Esquire
- Obama: I Trusted Rezko - David Jackson, Chicago Tribune
- The Keys to Pennsylvania - Terry Madonna & Michael Young, RCP
- Infighting Risks Dems' Key Voters - David Shribman, Pitt Post-Gazette
- For Progressives, A Sea-Change Election? - Robert Borosage, The Nation
- The Conservative Case for McCain - Gov. Mark Sanford, Wall Street Journal
- Why McCain Might Win - Michael Hirsh, Newsweek
- This is Why Hillary is Staying in the Race - John Podhoretz, Contentions
- The Pastor Story Behind the Story - Mike Allen, The Politico
- Controversial Minister Leaves Obama Campaign - Alex Johnson, MSNBC
- Democrats Might Not Need Florida - Adam Smith, St. Petersburg Times
- Obama Opens Up on Rezko - John Kass, Chicago Tribune
- Like Patton, McCain Wants to Win - Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe
- The Deep Blue Divide - Julia Baird, Newsweek
- Dems Enter WWI Phase - Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, The Politico
- McCain's Free Ride Will Cost Dems in Fall - Drew Westen, The New Republic
- Time to Buy Hillary Clinton - John McIntyre, RealClearPolitics
- Don't Bet Against a Clinton/Obama Ticket - Clive Crook, Financial Times
- Dems Risk Losing a Generation With Clinton - Ron Dzwonkowski, Detroit FP
- Generation Obama? Perhaps Not. - William Kristol, New York Times
- Has The Media Been Fair to Obama's Church? - Lisa Miller, Newsweek
- Pastor Calls Into Question Obama's Judgment - Peter Wehner, Nat'l Review
- The Dangers of Pitting Race Against Gender - Gary Younge, The Guardian
- White Male Vote Will Be Critical for Dems - Dan Balz, Washington Post
- The Growing Democratic Racial Divide - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
- The Fiscal Nightmare of 2009 - Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic
- Obama: How Does He Respond? - Mark Murray, NBC News
- White Suspicion, Black 'Luck' - Gregory Rodriguez, Los Angeles Times
- The Iraq Question McCain Must Answer - Peter Feaver, Weekly Standard
- Church Accuses Media of 'Crucifixion' - L. Lerer & M. Allen, The Politico
- Pastor's Remarks Spark Debate - Thomas Edsall, Huffington Post
- Obama's Campaign Has Been Fatally Damaged - Paul Burka, Texas Monthly
- Ready to End the War in Iraq - Senator Hillary Clinton, GW University
- Obama, Kristol & Newsmax - Michael Crowley, The New Republic
- Dems Need to Resolve Race Sooner Rather Than Later - Mike Cohen, WSJ
- What Do the Democrats Do Now? - Jennifer Rubin, Contentions
- Attacks on Obama, Wright are Ludicrous - Charles Coulter, Kansas City Star
- Beyond the Noise on Free Trade - Gregory Mankiw, New York Times
- Economic Chaos, Political Consequences - Nicholas von Hoffman, Nation
- Obama Walks Arrogance Line - Ron Fournier, Associated Press
- Pelosi's Not-So-Secret Support for Obama - Steve Kornacki, NY Observer
- Comparing Falwell and Wright is Silly - Ross Douthat, The Atlantic
- The Clinton Civil War - Markos Moulitsas, DailyKos
- The Problem with Obama's Explanation - Michael Medved, Townhall
- Obama in Cross Hairs for Pastor Remarks - Tapper & Rucci, ABC News
- The Wright Question - Washington Post
- How Much Danger Are Democrats In? - John Dickerson, Slate
- Clinton's Hopes for Florida Fade - Mark Halperin, Time
- Obama's Rationale for Bid in Jeopardy Over Wright - Tom Bevan, RCP
- Why Obama Can't Escape His Preacher - James Kirchick, The Politico
- Obama Right For Keeping the Faith - Rick Daugherty, PA Morning Call
- The Obama Bargain - Shelby Steele, Wall Street Journal
- On Wright, What Took Obama So Long? - Richard Cohen, Washington Post
- Eloquent Speech Masks the Real Issue - John Podhoretz, Contentions
- Speech Fine , Not Gen. Election - Tom Maguire, JustOneMinute
- Obama is Asking Voters to Excuse Jeremiah Wright - Stanley Kurtz, NRO
- An Honest, Honorable Candidate - Alan Wolfe, The New Republic
- Obama's Speech Was Brilliant, But... - Michael Crowley, The New Republic