Florida: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McCain (R) | Obama (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 48.2 | 51.0 | Obama +2.8 |
| RCP Average | 10/27 - 11/3 | -- | -- | 47.2 | 49.0 | Obama +1.8 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 10/31 - 11/3 | 678 LV | 4.1 | 48 | 49 | Obama +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/31 - 11/3 | 691 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 50 | Obama +3 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 11/2 - 11/2 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 49 | McCain +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/27 - 11/2 | 1773 LV | 2.3 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| ARG | 10/29 - 10/31 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 50 | Obama +4 |
| Mason-Dixon | 10/29 - 10/30 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 49 | Obama +2 |
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Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McCain (R) | Obama (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 48.2 | 51.0 | Obama +2.8 |
| RCP Average | 10/27 - 11/3 | -- | -- | 47.2 | 49.0 | Obama +1.8 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 10/31 - 11/3 | 678 LV | 4.1 | 48 | 49 | Obama +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/31 - 11/3 | 691 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 50 | Obama +3 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 11/2 - 11/2 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 49 | McCain +1 |
| PPP (D) | 10/31 - 11/2 | 1717 LV | 2.4 | 48 | 50 | Obama +2 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/31 - 11/2 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 47 | 49 | Obama +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/27 - 11/2 | 1773 LV | 2.3 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| ARG | 10/29 - 10/31 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 50 | Obama +4 |
| Mason-Dixon | 10/29 - 10/30 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 49 | Obama +2 |
| CNN/Time | 10/23 - 10/28 | 747 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 51 | Obama +4 |
| LA Times/Bloomberg | 10/25 - 10/27 | 639 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 50 | Obama +7 |
| National Journal/FD | 10/23 - 10/27 | 402 RV | 4.9 | 44 | 48 | Obama +4 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 10/26 - 10/26 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 47 | 51 | Obama +4 |
| Suffolk | 10/23 - 10/26 | 600 LV | -- | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 10/23 - 10/26 | 603 LV | 4.1 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Quinnipiac | 10/22 - 10/26 | 1435 LV | 2.6 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| Associated Press/GfK | 10/22 - 10/26 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 45 | Obama +2 |
| Politico/InAdv | 10/22 - 10/22 | 562 LV | 5.0 | 47 | 48 | Obama +1 |
| St. Petersburg Times | 10/20 - 10/22 | 800 LV | 3.5 | 42 | 49 | Obama +7 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/20 - 10/22 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 46 | McCain +2 |
| NBC/Mason-Dixon | 10/20 - 10/21 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 45 | McCain +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/16 - 10/21 | 1433 LV | 2.6 | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 10/19 - 10/19 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 48 | McCain +1 |
| PPP (D) | 10/16 - 10/19 | 1158 LV | 2.9 | 47 | 48 | Obama +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/16 - 10/16 | 553 LV | 4.3 | 49 | 47 | McCain +2 |
| Research 2000 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 49 | Obama +4 |
| CNN/Time | 10/11 - 10/14 | 765 LV | 3.5 | 46 | 51 | Obama +5 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 10/13 - 10/13 | 612 LV | 3.8 | 44 | 48 | Obama +4 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 10/12 - 10/12 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 51 | Obama +5 |
| Rasmussen | 10/8 - 10/8 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 50 | Obama +3 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 10/6 - 10/8 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 52 | Obama +8 |
| Research 2000 | 10/6 - 10/8 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| Mason-Dixon | 10/4 - 10/6 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 48 | Obama +2 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 10/5 - 10/5 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 52 | Obama +7 |
| Florida Chamber (R) | 9/30 - 10/1 | 619 RV | 4.0 | 45 | 42 | McCain +3 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 9/30 - 9/30 | 532 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 49 | Obama +3 |
| CNN/Time | 9/28 - 9/30 | 770 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 51 | Obama +4 |
| Suffolk/WSVN | 9/27 - 9/30 | 600 LV | -- | 42 | 46 | Obama +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/27 - 9/29 | 836 LV | 3.4 | 43 | 51 | Obama +8 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/28 - 9/28 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| SurveyUSA | 9/27 - 9/28 | 599 LV | 4.1 | 48 | 47 | McCain +1 |
| PPP (D) | 9/27 - 9/28 | 941 LV | 3.2 | 46 | 49 | Obama +3 |
| Rasmussen | 9/24 - 9/24 | 700 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 47 | McCain +1 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 9/21 - 9/23 | 1200 LV | 3.5 | 48 | 45 | McCain +3 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/21 - 9/21 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 51 | 46 | McCain +5 |
| NBC/Mason-Dixon | 9/16 - 9/18 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| Sun-Sentinel/R2000 | 9/15 - 9/18 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 45 | McCain +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/16 - 9/17 | 707 LV | 3.8 | 51 | 45 | McCain +6 |
| Miami Herald/SP Times | 9/14 - 9/17 | 800 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 45 | McCain +2 |
| CNN/Time | 9/14 - 9/16 | 907 RV | 3.5 | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| National Journal/FD | 9/11 - 9/15 | 400 RV | 4.9 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/14 - 9/14 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 49 | 44 | McCain +5 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 9/10 - 9/10 | 511 LV | 4.3 | 50 | 42 | McCain +8 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/5 - 9/9 | 1032 LV | 2.7 | 50 | 43 | McCain +7 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 9/7 - 9/7 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| PPP (D) | 9/6 - 9/7 | 986 LV | 3.1 | 50 | 45 | McCain +5 |
| Mason-Dixon | 8/25 - 8/26 | 625 LV | -- | 44 | 45 | Obama +1 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 8/22 - 8/24 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 42 | McCain +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 8/17 - 8/24 | 1069 LV | -- | 47 | 43 | McCain +4 |
| Kitchens Group (D) | 8/18 - 8/21 | 605 LV | -- | 42 | 39 | McCain +3 |
| Rasmussen | 8/18 - 8/18 | 700 LV | 4.5 | 48 | 46 | McCain +2 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 8/11 - 8/11 | 418 LV | 5.0 | 48 | 44 | McCain +4 |
| SurveyUSA | 8/1 - 8/3 | 679 LV | -- | 50 | 44 | McCain +6 |
| PPP (D) | 7/30 - 8/2 | 800 LV | -- | 47 | 44 | McCain +3 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/23 - 7/29 | 1238 LV | 2.8 | 44 | 46 | Obama +2 |
| McLaughlin (R) | 7/20 - 7/28 | 1600 LV | -- | 45 | 40 | McCain +5 |
| Rasmussen | 7/22 - 7/22 | 500 LV | -- | 47 | 49 | Obama +2 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 6/27 - 6/29 | 1200 LV | -- | 49 | 41 | McCain +8 |
| PPP (D) | 6/26 - 6/29 | 723 LV | -- | 44 | 46 | Obama +2 |
| Rasmussen | 6/26 - 6/26 | 500 LV | -- | 48 | 41 | McCain +7 |
| Rasmussen | 6/18 - 6/18 | 500 LV | -- | 47 | 39 | McCain +8 |
| ARG* | 6/13 - 6/17 | 600 LV | -- | 44 | 49 | Obama +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 6/9 - 6/16 | 1453 LV | 2.6 | 43 | 47 | Obama +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/13 - 5/20 | 1419 RV | 2.6 | 45 | 41 | McCain +4 |
| Rasmussen | 5/19 - 5/19 | 500 LV | -- | 50 | 40 | McCain +10 |
| Quinnipiac | 4/23 - 4/29 | 1411 RV | -- | 44 | 43 | McCain +1 |
| Rasmussen | 4/10 - 4/10 | 500 LV | -- | 53 | 38 | McCain +15 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/24 - 3/31 | 1136 RV | -- | 46 | 37 | McCain +9 |
| PPP (D) | 3/15 - 3/16 | 618 LV | -- | 50 | 39 | McCain +11 |
| Rasmussen | 3/12 - 3/12 | 500 LV | -- | 47 | 43 | McCain +4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2/26 - 2/28 | 632 RV | -- | 47 | 45 | McCain +2 |
| Mason-Dixon | 2/21 - 2/24 | 625 RV | -- | 47 | 37 | McCain +10 |
| Rasmussen | 2/16 - 2/16 | 500 LV | -- | 53 | 37 | McCain +16 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/6 - 2/12 | 1009 LV | -- | 41 | 39 | McCain +2 |
| St. Petersburg Times | 11/4 - 11/7 | 800 RV | -- | 47 | 45 | McCain +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/17 - 10/22 | 1025 RV | -- | 42 | 42 | Tie |
| Quinnipiac | 10/1 - 10/8 | 869 RV | -- | 41 | 39 | McCain +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/3 - 9/9 | 1141 RV | -- | 42 | 39 | McCain +3 |
All Commentary & News Stories
- Veep Choice Must Be Test-Marketed - Quin Hillyer, American Spectator
- Running-Mate Math: Dems Need Strickland - George Will, Washington Post
- The Dems' Surrogate Circus - John Mercurio, National Journal
- Why is Obama's Pastor in the News? - Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo
- Can McCain Paint Blue States Red? - Jonathan Martin, The Politico
- Don't Discount Clinton's Strength in Ohio - John Fortier, The Politico
- Michelle Obama: Alienated in the U.S.A. - Evan Thomas, Newsweek
- The Dems' Iraq Paralysis - Abe Greenwald, Contentions
- Talent, Not Race, Explains Obama's Success - Joe Klein, Time
- Obama's Pastor Problem - Brian Ross, Good Morning America
- The Party Won't Overrule Obama Delegate Win - Peter Brown, Politico
- Why the Democrats Won't Fracture - Mort Kondracke, Roll Call
- Spitzer and the Law Are At Fault - The Economist
- It's the War Economy, Stupid! - The Nation
- Obama's Minister of Hate - New York Post
- Wright and Ferraro Are Just Distractions - Chicago Tribune
- NRCC Audits Forged, Nearly $1M Missing - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics
- Obama's Iraq Inconsistencies - Michael Gerson, Washington Post
- Do Voters Want a More Isolationist Foreign Policy? - Andrew Kohut, NYT
- What Will Happen With Florida? - Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics
- Don't Discount Clinton's Strength in Ohio - John Fortier, The Politico
- Obama and the Minister - Ronald Kessler, Wall Street Journal
- Hillary's New Conservative Friends - Steve Kornacki, New York Observer
- Monsters & Racists & Sexists, Oh My! - Kathleen Parker, RealClearPolitics
- Adventures In Identity Politics - Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post
- Is Clinton Making Obama Unelectable? - Jonathan Chait, The New Republic
- The Risks and Rewards of Obama - Ronald Brownstein, National Journal
- What Will Obama Cost the Nation? - Ross Kaminsky, Human Events
- Someone's Going to Feel Cheated - Gloria Borger, US News & World Report
- Dems Can't Stay Silent on Iraq - Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post
- Why McCain Might Win - Michael Hirsh, Newsweek
- The SNL Effect - Howard Kurtz, Washington Post
- The Democrats' Veep Calculus - Kimberley Strassel, Wall Street Journal
- Why McCain Should Pick Jindal - James Lucier, American Spectator
- Addressing the Wright Problem - Ross Douthat, The Atlantic
- McCain on His Record, Tax Cuts & Immigration - Hannity & Colmes
- Democrats Need to Stop This Silliness - James Carville, Financial Times
- Playing by Obama's Rules - Pat Buchanan, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- Sorry, Hillary: You've Crossed the Line - Charles Pluckhahn, Seattle Times
- The Pastor Questions Aren't Going Away - Victor Davis Hanson, NRO
- Is Obama's Explanation Good Enough? - Noam Scheiber, New Republic
- On My Faith and My Church - Senator Barack Obama, Huffington Post
- How McCain Turned It Around - Chris Jones, Esquire
- Obama: I Trusted Rezko - David Jackson, Chicago Tribune
- The Keys to Pennsylvania - Terry Madonna & Michael Young, RCP
- Infighting Risks Dems' Key Voters - David Shribman, Pitt Post-Gazette
- For Progressives, A Sea-Change Election? - Robert Borosage, The Nation
- The Conservative Case for McCain - Gov. Mark Sanford, Wall Street Journal
- Why McCain Might Win - Michael Hirsh, Newsweek
- This is Why Hillary is Staying in the Race - John Podhoretz, Contentions
- The Pastor Story Behind the Story - Mike Allen, The Politico
- Controversial Minister Leaves Obama Campaign - Alex Johnson, MSNBC
- Democrats Might Not Need Florida - Adam Smith, St. Petersburg Times
- Obama Opens Up on Rezko - John Kass, Chicago Tribune
- Like Patton, McCain Wants to Win - Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe
- The Deep Blue Divide - Julia Baird, Newsweek
- Dems Enter WWI Phase - Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, The Politico
- McCain's Free Ride Will Cost Dems in Fall - Drew Westen, The New Republic
- Time to Buy Hillary Clinton - John McIntyre, RealClearPolitics
- Don't Bet Against a Clinton/Obama Ticket - Clive Crook, Financial Times
- Dems Risk Losing a Generation With Clinton - Ron Dzwonkowski, Detroit FP
- Generation Obama? Perhaps Not. - William Kristol, New York Times
- Has The Media Been Fair to Obama's Church? - Lisa Miller, Newsweek
- Pastor Calls Into Question Obama's Judgment - Peter Wehner, Nat'l Review
- The Dangers of Pitting Race Against Gender - Gary Younge, The Guardian
- White Male Vote Will Be Critical for Dems - Dan Balz, Washington Post
- The Growing Democratic Racial Divide - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
- The Fiscal Nightmare of 2009 - Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic
- Obama: How Does He Respond? - Mark Murray, NBC News
- White Suspicion, Black 'Luck' - Gregory Rodriguez, Los Angeles Times
- The Iraq Question McCain Must Answer - Peter Feaver, Weekly Standard
- Church Accuses Media of 'Crucifixion' - L. Lerer & M. Allen, The Politico
- Pastor's Remarks Spark Debate - Thomas Edsall, Huffington Post
- Obama's Campaign Has Been Fatally Damaged - Paul Burka, Texas Monthly
- Ready to End the War in Iraq - Senator Hillary Clinton, GW University
- Obama, Kristol & Newsmax - Michael Crowley, The New Republic
- Dems Need to Resolve Race Sooner Rather Than Later - Mike Cohen, WSJ
- What Do the Democrats Do Now? - Jennifer Rubin, Contentions
- Attacks on Obama, Wright are Ludicrous - Charles Coulter, Kansas City Star
- Beyond the Noise on Free Trade - Gregory Mankiw, New York Times
- Economic Chaos, Political Consequences - Nicholas von Hoffman, Nation
- Obama Walks Arrogance Line - Ron Fournier, Associated Press
- Pelosi's Not-So-Secret Support for Obama - Steve Kornacki, NY Observer
- Comparing Falwell and Wright is Silly - Ross Douthat, The Atlantic
- The Clinton Civil War - Markos Moulitsas, DailyKos
- The Problem with Obama's Explanation - Michael Medved, Townhall
- Obama in Cross Hairs for Pastor Remarks - Tapper & Rucci, ABC News
- The Wright Question - Washington Post
- How Much Danger Are Democrats In? - John Dickerson, Slate
- Clinton's Hopes for Florida Fade - Mark Halperin, Time
- Obama's Rationale for Bid in Jeopardy Over Wright - Tom Bevan, RCP
- Why Obama Can't Escape His Preacher - James Kirchick, The Politico
- Obama Right For Keeping the Faith - Rick Daugherty, PA Morning Call
- The Obama Bargain - Shelby Steele, Wall Street Journal
- On Wright, What Took Obama So Long? - Richard Cohen, Washington Post
- Eloquent Speech Masks the Real Issue - John Podhoretz, Contentions
- Speech Fine , Not Gen. Election - Tom Maguire, JustOneMinute
- Obama is Asking Voters to Excuse Jeremiah Wright - Stanley Kurtz, NRO
- An Honest, Honorable Candidate - Alan Wolfe, The New Republic
- Obama's Speech Was Brilliant, But... - Michael Crowley, The New Republic