|Poll||Date||Sample||Teague (D)||Tinsley (R)||Spread|
|Daily Kos/R2000||9/30 - 10/1||LV||47||43||Teague +4|
Two candidates who have largely self-funded make this race for the most Republican seat in New Mexico suddenly competitive. McCain is likely to win the district, but restauranteur Ed Tinsley (R) is already being hammered by Democrats and could have to start spending on television ads early. The race will be regional, too: Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague (D) has a base in Hobbs, on the Texas border, while Tinsley is from Las Cruces, in the middle of the district.
2006: Pearce (R) 59, Kissling (D) 40
2004: Pearce (R) 60, King (D) 40
2002: Pearce (R) 56, Smith (D) 44
2004: Bush (R) 58, Kerry (D) 41
2000: Bush (R) 54, Gore (D) 43