|Poll||Date||Sample||Baker (D)||Luetkemeyer (R)||Spread|
|Daily Kos/R2000||10/20 - 10/22||LV||42||47||Luetkemeyer +5|
|Daily Kos/R2000||9/17 - 9/18||LV||40||49||Luetkemeyer +9|
|SurveyUSA||9/1 - 9/2||634 LV||38||50||Luetkemeyer +12|
2006: Hulshof (R) 61, Burghard (D) 36
2004: Hulshof (R) 65, Jacobsen (D) 34
2002: Hulshof (R) 68, Deichman (D) 29
2004: Bush (R) 59, Kerry (D) 41
2000: Bush (R) 55, Gore (D) 42
This seat became open when Rep. Kenny Huslhof (R) announced he would run for governor rather than for a seventh term. Facing off in the general election is state Rep. Judy Baker (D) and former state tourism dir. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R), who both defeated four opponents in the August 5 primaries.
Two tough primaries produced nominees of fractured parties, but Republicans came out with the more moderate candidate. Luetkemeyer beat out a Club for Growth-backed candidate, while Democratic observers admit Baker was not the most centrist candidate the party could have picked. A poll for Baker's campaign showed her leading right after the primary, but that could change once Luetkemeyer consolidates his base.