|Poll||Date||Sample||Boyda (D)||Jenkins (R)||Spread|
|SurveyUSA||8/19 - 8/21||620 LV||50||43||Boyda +7|
Nancy Boyda is being challenged by state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who defeated former Rep. Jim Ryun in the August 5 primary, 51%-49%. Ryun's upset loss meant he would not have a chance to win back his seat from Boyda; it also would have been the third meeting between the two in the last three elections.
Democrats in Kansas usually only win when moderate and conservative Republicans are at each other's throats. So when Jenkins won quick and unconditional support from Ryun, the GOP's chances of taking an ordinarily very Republican seat grew almost exponentially. Boyda has also refused national party money, handing Jenkins a big advantage.
2006: Boyda (D) 51, Ryun (R) 47
2004: Ryun (R) 56, Boyda (D) 41
2002: Ryun (R) 60, Lykins (D) 38
2004: Bush (R) 59, Kerry (D) 39
2000: Bush (R) 54, Gore (D) 41