|Poll||Date||Sample||Montagano (D)||Souder (R)||Spread|
|Howey-Gauge||10/23 - 10/24||300 LV||44||41||Montagano +3|
|Research 2000||10/16 - 10/18||600 LV||40||45||Souder +5|
2006: Souder (R) 54, Hayhurst (D) 46
2004: Souder (R) 69, Parra (D) 31
2002: Souder (R) 63, Rigdon (D) 34
2004: Bush (R) 68, Kerry (D) 31
2000: Bush (R) 66, Gore (D) 33
This isn't supposed to be a competitive district for Democrats, especially if their candidate is in his mid-20s. But polls released late in the campaign indicate that even Northeastern Indiana is vulnerable territory for Republicans.
Rep. Souder, elected in the wave election of 1994, won in 2006 a by a smaller margin than he's used to. He was running against a credible challenger who ended up outspending him. Through Oct. 15, Souder had been outspent again, though his challenger had just $3k left in the bank at that point.