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Missouri Governor

Candidates

Kenny Hulshof

Kenny Hulshof (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jay Nixon

Jay Nixon (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Missouri Snapshot

RCP House Ranking: Likely Dem

Presidential Race: Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Governor: Nixon (D) vs. Hulshof (R)
House Races: MO-6 | MO-9

Key 2006 State Races:
Senate

2004 President:
Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHulshof (R)Nixon (D)Spread
Final Results----39.558.4Nixon +18.9
RCP Average10/14 - 11/2--39.355.3Nixon +16.0
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2674 LV3954Nixon +15
Research 200010/20 - 10/23800 LV4155Nixon +14
Rasmussen10/14 - 10/14700 LV3857Nixon +19

All Missouri Governor Polling Data

Previous Election Results

Governor
2004: Blunt 51, McCaskill 48
2000: Holden 49, Talent 48

President
2004: Bush 53, Kerry 46
2000: Bush 50, Gore 47
1996: Clinton 48, Dole 41

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 5,878,415 
Registered Voters: No party registration
Occupation: Blue Collar 26.0% | White Collar 58.3% | Gray Collar 15.7%
Race: White 83.8% | Black 11.2% | Hispanic 2.1% | Two+ races 1.3%

Race Summary

Facing what would have been a competitive general election challenge from Attorney General Jay Nixon, Gov. Matt Blunt announced in January he would not seek re-election, citing the desire to spend more time with his family.

Blunt's exit sparked a close primary campaign between 9th District Rep. Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and Hulshof emerged victorious with a 4-point win in the August 5 primary. Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder initially entered the race, but dropped out two weeks later, deciding instead to run for re-election.

Nixon has been gearing up for this race far longer than Hulshof and did not face a competitive primary. This gives Nixon an edge, though this promises to be a close contest.

Notable fact: The two most recent governor's race losers both went on to win election to the Senate. In 2006, the loser of the 2004 election for governor, Claire McCaskill, knocked off the incumbent Senator and loser of the 2000 election, Jim Talent.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHulshof (R)Nixon (D)Spread
Final Results----39.558.4Nixon +18.9
RCP Average10/14 - 11/2--39.355.3Nixon +16.0
PPP (D)10/31 - 11/21343 LV3858Nixon +20
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2674 LV3954Nixon +15
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/26672 LV3855Nixon +17
Research 200010/20 - 10/23800 LV4155Nixon +14
Rasmussen10/14 - 10/14700 LV3857Nixon +19
SurveyUSA10/11 - 10/12546 LV3456Nixon +22
PPP (D)10/11 - 10/121009 LV3952Nixon +13
SurveyUSA9/23 - 9/24705 LV3754Nixon +17
Research 20009/22 - 9/24800 LV4251Nixon +9
Research 20009/15 - 9/18800 LV4350Nixon +7
Rasmussen9/11 - 9/11700 LV3954Nixon +15
PPP (D)8/13 - 8/17750 LV4248Nixon +6
Rasmussen8/7 - 8/7700 LV4253Nixon +11
Research 20007/7 - 7/10800 LV3552Nixon +17
Rasmussen7/7 - 7/7500 LV3849Nixon +11
PPP (D)7/2 - 7/5723 LV3747Nixon +10
Rasmussen6/3 - 6/3500 LV3454Nixon +20
Rasmussen5/6 - 5/6500 LV3454Nixon +20
Rasmussen3/24 - 3/24500 LV3748Nixon +11
Rasmussen2/11 - 2/11500 LV3048Nixon +18

All Commentary & News Stories

- The Show Me (A Good Race) State - Kyle Trygstad, RCP

- Another Campaign Watcher Calls Race For Nixon - Kansas City Star

- Down the Homestretch - Wall Street Journal

- Hulshof vs. Nixon - Columbia Tribune