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Washington Senate Race

Candidates

McGavick

McGavick (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Maria Cantwell

Maria Cantwell (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Cantwell +13.3 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Likely Democrat
Competitive House Races: WA-8

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcGavick (R)Cantwell (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----39.956.9--Cantwell +17.0
RCP Average10/25 - 11/2--40.553.84.3Cantwell +13.3
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/2625 LV38547Cantwell +16
U. of Washington10/25 - 10/31700 RV41536Cantwell +12
SurveyUSA10/27 - 10/29774 LV41542Cantwell +13
Rasmussen10/26 - 10/26500 LV42542Cantwell +12

All Washington Senate Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Senate
2000: Cantwell 49, Gorton 49
1994: Gorton 56, Sims 44

President
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
2000: Gore 50, Bush 45
1996: Clinton 50, Dole 37

Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 22.1% | White Collar 61.4% | Gray Collar 16.4%
Race: White 78.9% | Hispanic 7.5% | Asian 5.4% | Black 3.1%

Analysis

(October 29)  With a week to go Cantwell remains over 50% in the RCP Average and ahead by double digits. No reason to think she will lose.

(October 13) Cantwell appears to have this race in control. She is above 50% in the latest RCP Average, which for an incumbent with less than four weeks to go in this cycle is pretty darn safe. If this were 2002, McGavick would have a real shot at pulling off the upset, but it is 2006 and it’s hard to see how Cantwell loses.
(August 21) This race has tightened and McGavick, while still the underdog, is in a position to pull off the upset. Absent the anti-GOP tide this would be a tossup race where McGavick probably had the advantage; however with the macro winds blowing in favor of the Democrats Cantwell has the upper hand. This is a good race to watch to get a handle on the national mood, for if it moves to a Toss Up and/or McGavick can take the lead in a poll or two, the odds for a national Democratic “tidal wave” decrease appreciably.

 

(August 7) Mike McGavick is regarded by many to be the most talented Republican challenger in the country this year. As former Chief of Staff to Slade Gorton (whom Cantwell defeated by just over 2000 votes six years ago) and the former CEO of Safeco Insurance, McGavick has a keen sense for politics and the record of a successsful, problem-solving businessman.

And even though McGavick has made the most of his talents and won rave review for his "Open Mike" tour of townhall meetings around the state while Cantwell has been battling war protesters and trying to manage a fractured base, McGavick is still trailing in the polls by roughly 7+ points.

That goes to show not only the power of incumbency but also what sort of headwind McGavick is facing as a Republican running in a solidly blue state.

Cantwell, who is flush with more than $6 million in the bank, recently went up with her first paid media campaign two weeks ago, which also helped extend her lead in the most recent round of polls.

The latest twist in this race is Cantwell's vote against the "trifecta" tax bill in the Senate last week. The bill, which coupled an increase in the minimum wage with a cut in the estate tax, was also sweetened with specific provisions to attract the support of the crucial swing votes of Cantwell an Murray. Both voted against the bill, giving the McGavick campaign fresh ammunition to use against Cantwell.

Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: WA Political Report | Sound Politics | Progressive Majority | Andrew's Dad | WA Lefty Blogs

State Newspaper Coverage: Seattle Times | Seattle Post-Intelligencer

State Parties: Wa GOP | Wa Dems


Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcGavick (R)Cantwell (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----39.956.9--Cantwell +17.0
RCP Average10/25 - 11/2--40.553.84.3Cantwell +13.3
Strategic Vision (R)11/2 - 11/4800 LV42535Cantwell +11
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/2625 LV38547Cantwell +16
U. of Washington10/25 - 10/31700 RV41536Cantwell +12
SurveyUSA10/27 - 10/29774 LV41542Cantwell +13
Strategic Vision (R)10/27 - 10/29800 LV44524Cantwell +8
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 4650--Cantwell +4
Rasmussen10/26 - 10/26500 LV42542Cantwell +12
Mason-Dixon10/17 - 10/19625 LV37528Cantwell +15
Strategic Vision (R)10/16 - 10/18800 LV42517Cantwell +9
Rasmussen10/17 - 10/17500 LV38536Cantwell +15
Zogby Interactive *10/10 - 10/161245 LV45523Cantwell +7
SurveyUSA10/13 - 10/15848 LV43513Cantwell +8
Mason-Dixon9/24 - 9/27625 LV40509Cantwell +10
SurveyUSA9/21 - 9/25481 LV42541Cantwell +12
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25--43507Cantwell +7
Strategic Vision (R)9/22 - 9/24800 LV404911Cantwell +9
Rasmussen9/20 - 9/20500 LV42487Cantwell +6
Rasmussen9/6 - 9/6500 LV35529Cantwell +17
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5n/a 42508Cantwell +8
SurveyUSA8/28 - 8/29669 RV36533Cantwell +17
Strategic Vision (R)8/25 - 8/27800 LV43489Cantwell +5
SurveyUSA8/25 - 8/27808 RV39565Cantwell +17
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/21n/a 43516Cantwell +8
Rasmussen8/15 - 8/15500 LV404610Cantwell +6
Strategic Vision (R)7/21 - 7/23800 LV44488Cantwell +4
Zogby Interactive*7/11 - 7/19n/a 42495Cantwell +7
Rasmussen7/17 - 7/17500 LV374810Cantwell +11
Elway Poll7/11 - 7/13400 RV334719Cantwell +14
Strategic Vision (R)6/23 - 6/25800 LV434710Cantwell +4
Rasmussen6/13 - 6/13500 LV404412Cantwell +4
Strategic Vision (R)5/19 - 5/21800 LV424711Cantwell +5
Rasmussen5/8 - 5/8500 LV41469Cantwell +5
Strategic Vision (R)4/21 - 4/23800 LV404812Cantwell +8
Elway Poll4/20 - 4/23405 RV235226Cantwell +29
Rasmussen4/4 - 4/4500 LV404810Cantwell +8
Strategic Vision (R)3/24 - 3/26800 LV394912Cantwell +10
Rasmussen3/7 - 3/7500 LV364912Cantwell +13
Strategic Vision (R)2/10 - 2/12800 LV404812Cantwell +8
Elway Poll2/6 - 2/9405 RV2555--Cantwell +30
Rasmussen1/24 - 1/24500 LV36509Cantwell +14
Rasmussen1/2 - 1/2500 LV365110Cantwell +15
Strategic Vision (R)12/2 - 12/4800 RV395011Cantwell +11
Rasmussen11/30 - 11/30500 LV37528Cantwell +15
Rasmussen11/10 - 11/10500 LV37528Cantwell +15
Strategic Vision (R)10/23 - 10/25800 RV394813Cantwell +9
Strategic Vision (R)9/19 - 9/21800 RV394612Cantwell +7
Strategic Vision (R)8/5 - 8/7800 RV384616Cantwell +8
Strategic Vision (R)5/15 - 5/17800 LV364915Cantwell +13