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Pennsylvania Senate Race

Candidates

Rick Santorum (R)*
Bio | Campaign Site

Bob Casey (D)
Bio | Campaign Site
RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Casey + 11.5% | RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Likely Democrat
Key Races: GOV | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
Polling Data
PollDateSampleSantorum (R)*Casey (D)Und.Spread
RCP Average10/23 - 11/02-40.852.34.8Casey +11.5
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/02625 LV39527Casey +13.0
Morning Call10/29 - 11/01507 LV43513Casey +8.0
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV40486Casey +8.0
Keystone Poll10/25 - 10/29355 LV39565Casey +17.0
Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/29933 LV42526Casey +10.0
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 LV42552Casey +13.0
See All Pennsylvania Senate Race Polling Data
RealClearPolitics Analysis
(September 25) The post-Labor Day polls seem to be bringing little good news for Senator Santorum. Like the Gallup poll giving Casey an 18-point lead in late August we don’t put a lot of stock in the IssuesPA/Pew poll showing Casey ahead 23 points, but there is no question that after a tightening to the 5-8 point range in mid-August, the recent polls indicate Casey has restored his double-digit lead. Put simply, this is bad news for Republican chances to hold this seat.

Santorum at a minimum needed to keep this race in the 5-8 point range. A 9 – 12 point range (or higher) in the RCP Average in late September, is not good news for an incumbent Senator. The polls are likely to close again, but Casey at this stage holds the definite advantage.

(September 6) The Gallup poll indicating an 18 point lead for Casey should be taken with a grain salt. As good as Gallup is with national survey’s their state polling in 2004 was considerably less than stellar, as Gallup’s final polls in the critical toss up states of PA, FL and OH were significantly off the mark. They were calling for a Bush win in Pennsylvania by four, he lost by 2 ½ points (Kerry 50.9% - Bush 48.4%) and Kerry wins in Florida in Ohio by 3 and 4, which he lost by five and two. (FL: Bush 52.1% - Kerry 47.1%, OH: Bush 50.8% - Kerry 48.7%)

However, even if Gallup is off by 10 points, that still puts Casey ahead by 8, which isn’t good news for Santorum, reinforcing our point from the beginning that Santorum is simply down by too much. A move back into the low double digits in the next batch of polls would be very bad news for the incumbent’s reelection prospects.

(August 21) Strategic Vision is the third poll to peg this race at a 6 point Casey lead, their previous four polls had Casey leads of 10, 9, 10 and 14 points. So it is not just a single poll indicating that Santorum has pulled within 6 points, but three. The next question is whether this is a temporary blip for Santorum and the race will return to a Casey 10 point lead or has the embattled incumbent made gains that he can hold?

(August 15 Analysis | August 7 Analysis | July 14 Analysis)

 

Previous Election Results

Senate
2000: Santorum 52, Klink 46
1994: Santorum 49, Wofford 47

President
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
2000: Gore 51, Bush 46
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 40

Demographics

Registered Voters: Dem 47.6% | Rep 40.7% | Other 11.7%
Occupation: Blue Collar 25.2% | White Collar 59.5% | Gray Collar 15.3%
Race: White 84.1% | Black 9.8% | Hispanic 3.2% | Asian 1.8%


Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: PoliticsPA | Keystone Politics | GrassrootsPA | A Smoke Filled Room | Dick Polman | Tom Ferrick | Will Bunch | Santorum Blog | Casey Blog

State Newspaper Coverage: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette | Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

State Parties: Pa GOP | Pa Dems

Recent Commentary & News Stories
- Mr. Casey Goes to Washington - Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA: Casey Doesn't Plan on Being a Shy Freshman - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: For Santorum, What Comes Next? - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Midterm Finals for Senate Race - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Santorum Confident in 'Silent Vote' - Centre Daily Times
See All Pennsylvania Senate Race Commentary & News Stories
Polling Data
PollDateSampleSantorum (R)*Casey (D)Und.Spread
RCP Average10/23 - 11/02-40.852.34.8Casey +11.5
Strategic Vision (R)11/02 - 11/041200 LV40528Casey +12.0
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/02625 LV39527Casey +13.0
Morning Call10/29 - 11/01507 LV43513Casey +8.0
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV40486Casey +8.0
Strategic Vision (R)10/28 - 10/301200 LV394912Casey +10.0
Keystone Poll10/25 - 10/29355 LV39565Casey +17.0
Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/29933 LV42526Casey +10.0
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 LV42552Casey +13.0
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV4453--Casey +9.0
West Chester Univ.10/22 - 10/25601 LV395011Casey +11.0
Phil. Inquirer10/16 - 10/25698 LV38546Casey +16.0
Strategic Vision (R)10/20 - 10/231200 LV42499Casey +7.0
Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/21625 LV39517Casey +12.0
Rasmussen10/16 - 10/16500 LV43550.0Casey +12.0
Zogby Interactive *10/10 - 10/16760 LV4452--Casey +8.0
Morning Call10/03 - 10/08511 LV414614Casey +5.0
Rasmussen10/05 - 10/05500 LV39529Casey +13.0
Reuters/Zogby09/25 - 10/02602 LV364814Casey +12.0
Mason-Dixon09/22 - 09/26625 LV404910Casey +9.0
Zogby Interactive*09/19 - 09/25893 LV424814Casey +6.0
Strategic Vision (R)09/22 - 09/241200 LV405010Casey +10.0
Quinnipiac09/19 - 09/24933 LV40546Casey +14.0
Rasmussen09/20 - 09/20500 LV39497Casey +10.0
Phil. Inquirer09/14 - 09/20666 LV39498Casey +10.0
Greenberg Quinlan (D)09/18 - 09/19414 LV39535Casey +14.0
Keystone Poll09/13 - 09/18604 RV384512Casey +7.0
Issues PA/Pew Poll09/11 - 09/181201 RV315410Casey +23.0
Zogby Interactive*08/29 - 09/05893 LV43478Casey +4.0
USA Today/Gallup08/23 - 08/27600 LV38565Casey +18.0
Rasmussen08/22 - 08/22500 LV40486Casey +8.0
Keystone Poll08/16 - 08/21551 RV394413Casey +5.0
Zogby Interactive*08/15 - 08/21671 LV42517Casey +9.0
Benenson Strategy (D)08/13 - 08/16821 A374812Casey +11.0
Strategic Vision (R)08/11 - 08/131200 LV41478Casey +6.0
Quinnipiac08/08 - 08/131011 LV42485Casey +6.0
Morning Call07/31 - 08/03550 RV394516Casey +6.0
Rasmussen07/26 - 07/26500 LV395011Casey +11.0
Zogby Interactive*07/11 - 07/19950 LV404911Casey +9.0
Strategic Vision (R)07/14 - 07/161200 LV40508Casey +10.0
Rasmussen06/19 - 06/19500 LV37526Casey +15.0
Quinnipiac06/13 - 06/191076 RV345212Casey +18.0
Zogby Interactive*06/13 - 06/19769 LV4148N/ACasey +7.0
Strategic Vision (R)06/09 - 06/111200 LV404910Casey +9.0
Greenberg Quinlan (D)05/21 - 05/25756 LV4154N/ACasey +13.0
Rasmussen05/22 - 05/22500 LV33568Casey +23.0
Quinnipiac05/02 - 05/081487 RV364912Casey +13.0
Strategic Vision (R)05/05 - 05/071200 LV41499Casey +8.0
Keystone Poll04/27 - 05/01578 RV414712Casey +6.0
Morning Call04/17 - 04/25508 RV384616Casey +8.0
Rasmussen04/20 - 04/20500 LV38515Casey +13.0
Strategic Vision (R)04/07 - 04/091200 LV40509Casey +10.0
Quinnipiac03/28 - 04/031354374812Casey +11.0
Rasmussen03/29 - 03/29500 LV41505Casey +9.0
Rasmussen03/14 - 03/14500 LV38488Casey +10.0
Strategic Vision (R)03/10 - 03/121200 LV38528Casey +14.0
Mansfield University02/13 - 03/071102314520Casey +14.0
Morning Call02/25 - 03/02668 RV374914Casey +12.0
Rasmussen02/16 - 02/16500 LV36527Casey +16.0
Quinnipiac01/31 - 02/061661365110Casey +15.0
Keystone Poll01/31 - 02/05497 RV395011Casey +11.0
Strategic Vision (R)01/20 - 01/221200 LV40509Casey +10.0
Rasmussen01/15 - 01/15500 LV38536Casey +15.0
Strategic Vision (R)12/16 - 12/181200 LV395010Casey +11.0
Quinnipiac11/30 - 12/061447385010Casey +12.0
Strategic Vision (R)11/11 - 11/131200 RV365110Casey +15.0
Rasmussen11/07 - 11/07500 LV34547Casey +20.0
Keystone Poll11/02 - 11/07533 RV355114Casey +16.0
Strategic Vision (R)10/14 - 10/161200 RV365210Casey +16.0
Quinnipiac09/27 - 10/031530345211Casey +18.0
Morning Call09/18 - 09/25477 RV293731Casey +8.0
Keystone Poll09/08 - 09/13518 RV375013Casey +13.0
Strategic Vision (R)09/10 - 09/121200 RV38527Casey +14.0
Strategic Vision (R)07/29 - 07/311200 RV40517Casey +11.0
Rasmussen07/20 - 07/20500 LV4152N/ACasey +11.0
Quinnipiac07/06 - 07/101639395011Casey +11.0
Keystone Poll05/31 - 06/05467 RV374419Casey +7.0
Keystone Poll04/25 - 05/01578 RV414712Casey +6.0
Quinnipiac04/13 - 04/181395354913Casey +14.0
Keystone Poll02/23 - 03/20452 RV434413Casey +1.0
Quinnipiac02/10 - 02/141250414611Casey +5.0
All Commentary & News Stories
- Mr. Casey Goes to Washington - Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA: Casey Doesn't Plan on Being a Shy Freshman - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: For Santorum, What Comes Next? - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Midterm Finals for Senate Race - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Santorum Confident in 'Silent Vote' - Centre Daily Times
- PA: Democrats Focus on Pennsylvania - Washington Times
- PA: Casey, Rendell Hold Leads - Centre Daily Times
- Throw the Bums Out, but Spare Rick Santorum - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh PG
- PA: Rudy Rallies GOP Faithful for Santorum - Wilkes Barre Times-Leader
- PA: Santorum Defends Iraq Stance - Wilkes Barre Times-Leader
- Rick Santorum: We Need His Kind - Peggy Noonan, Opinion Journal
- PA: Kerry's Gaffe Jolts Santorum, Casey - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Kerry Cancels Casey Event - Associated Press
- PA: Santorum Focuses on War - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- Santorum Says Casey is Soft on Terror (Video) - O'Reilly Factor
- PA: Santorum Charges Casey with Abetting Terrorism - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- Ford, Santorum, Schumer, Dole, Roundtable - Fox News Sunday
- PA: Santorum Keeps Focus on Defense - Philadelphia Inquirer
- Santorum's Last Stand - Abby Wisse Schachter, New York Post
- PA: Santorum: Casey Unqualified for Senate - Associated Press
- PA: Santorum Ad Shows Casey's Face Next To Mushroom Cloud - NBC News
- PA: Santorum Touts Gun Stand - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- Interview with Rick Santorum - Hardball w/ Chris Matthews
- PA: Obama Stumps for Casey - Associated Press
- Is The GOP Losing Reagan Democrats? - Tim Reid, Times of London
- A Tale of Two Elections - G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young, RCP
- Santorum's Woes an Omen for Republicans? - Margaret Carlson, Bloomberg
- Rick Santorum on GOP's Election Prospects (Video) - FOX & Friends
- NJ and PA Senate Races Heating Up - NewsHour w/ Jim Lehrer
- For GOP, Immigration an Issue to Pull in Voters - Baltimore Sun
- PA: Casey, Santorum Debate a Last Time - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Casey Bests Santorum for 1st Time in Raising of Money - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- GOP on a Mission to Save Santorum - Los Angeles Times
- GOP Running Against a Stiff Northern Wind - Los Angeles Times
- PA: Final Debates Today Crucial in Senate Campaign - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Bob Casey Is an Unlikely Party Hero - Washington Post
- How Santorum Can Win - Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- Santorum and Casey Get Riled in Debate - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Casey, Santorum Spar Over N. Korea - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Santorum, Casey React to North Korea - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- Outside Santorum's Sanctum - Jerry Bowyer, New York Sun
- Penn Statists - Dave Weigel, Reason
- PA: Santorum Revving to Get Ahead While Casey Idles in the Lead - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Santorum Stymied as Casey Idles in Lead - Phiadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Casey Campaign Announces Big Fundraising Quarter - Associated Press
- PA: Santorum Struggles for Voter Approval - Associated Press
- PA: Green Party Hopeful is Out; Win for Casey - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Soft Money Playing Hardball in Senate Race - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Voters Unmoved by Ethics Issues - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: In Senate Race, War Solutions Differ - Philadelphia Inquirer
- Who's More Pro-Life in PA? - Joseph D'Agostino, Human Events
- The Beatitudes of Rick Santorum - Kathleen Parker, Orlando Sentinel
- PA: In This Political Season, State is Awash in Polls - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Green Party Senate Candidate Thrown Off Ballot - Philadelphia Inquirer
- Santorum Bets on Party's Clout in Pennsylvania - New York Times
- PA: Bush's Drag on Santorum Helps Casey to 10-Point Lead - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Rendell and His Fund-Raisers Get Behind Casey's Campaign - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Casey Clings to Lead; Rendell Lets Clock Run - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA: Top Court Decision Could Boost Santorum - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Values Voters Up For Grabs in Senate Race - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Casey Joins Dem Push For Religious Voters - Centre Daily Times
- Casey Shows He is Out of His League - Jeffrey Lord, The American Spectator
- PA: Casey Speaks of Life, Faith - Washington Post
- PA: Santorum Ad Impugns Ethics of Casey 'Team' - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Dems Try to Hit Santorum Where He Doesn't Live - Pittsburgh PG
- PA: Casey Says He's More Than "Anti-Santorum" - Pittsburgh PG
- Democrats' Dilemma: Casey Strikes Out - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
- Third Candidates Could Tilt Number of Races - USA Today
- Can the GOP be Saved? Perhaps - Pat Buchanan, Creators
- After the Debate: Santorum for Pa. - Michael Smerconish, Philly Daily News
- PA: Heated Senate Debate Breaks Little New Ground - Pittsburgh PG
- Senate Debate: Santorum v. Casey - Meet the Press
- PA: Santorum, Casey: It's Put-Up Time - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Santorum and Upstart Allies Now GOP Old Guard - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Casey Campaign Takes a 'New Direction' - Towanda Sunday Review
- Pennsylvania: Bellwether for November? - Michael McGough, LA Times
- PA: Debate Could Tip Senatorial Race - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA: Pa. Offers Deal Over Santorum Tuition - Philadelphia Inquirer/AP
- GOP Lags in Key Races For Senate - USA Today
- Santorum Shrinks Casey's Poll Lead - Washington Times
- PA: Santorum Seeking Support From Women - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Santorum: Iran Poses a Threat - Philadelphia Inquirer
- PA: Santorum Pairs 'Islamic Fascism,' WWII - Associated Press
- PA: Ads Take Nastier Tone as Senate Race Tightens - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- The Ghost of Terri Schiavo - Michael Smerconish, Philadelphia Daily News
- PA: Senate Race Tightens - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA: Casey Rolls Out Statewide Ads - Philadelphia Inquirer
- Rick Santorum: Incumbent on the Brink - Jason Riley, Wall Street Journal
- PA: Casey OKs 3 More Debates with Santorum - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Santorum Goes Full Circle - Washington Times
- PA: Casey Touts Independence but Shuns Tough Issues - Washington Times
- Rahm Emanuel, Rick Santorum, Harold Ford Jr. - Hardball
- Santorum in Striking Distance - Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- PA Senate Poll: Casey 47% Santorum 41% - Strategic Vision
- A Test of Republican Resiliency in Santorum vs. Casey - Sarah Lueck, WSJ
- PA Senate Poll: Casey 48% Santorum 42% - Quinnipiac
- PA: Santorum Accuses Dems of Politicizing Terror War - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Dems Say Green Party Petitions Fake - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- PA: Santorum Campaign Perseveres Despite a Couple of Breakdowns - Pittsburgh PG
- PA Senate Poll: Casey (D) 45% Santorum (R) 39% - Morning Call