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Ohio Senate Race

Candidates

DeWine

DeWine (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Brown +10.0 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Leans Democrat
Key State Races: GOV | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDeWine (R)Brown (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----43.856.2--Brown +12.4
RCP Average10/31 - 11/5--43.353.33.0Brown +10.0
SurveyUSA11/3 - 11/5436 LV42544Brown +12
Univ. of Cinci11/1 - 11/51074 LV4456--Brown +12
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/2625 LV44505Brown +6

All Ohio Senate Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Senate
2000: DeWine 60, Celeste 36
1994: DeWine 53, Hyatt 39

President
2004: Bush 51, Kerry 49
2000: Bush 50, Gore 46
1996: Clinton 47, Dole 40

Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 27.8% | White Collar 57.3% | Gray Collar 14.9%
Race: White 84.0% | Black 11.4% | Hisapnic 1.9% | Asian 1.2%

Analysis

(October 17) It had been our opinion that Sherrod Brown's very liberal record in the Ohio congressional delegation would provide enough fodder for DeWine to keep this race close and coupled with the Republican GOTV make this race a toss up on election day. It may get back there, but it looks like the Republican Party's implosion in Ohio is just becoming too much for DeWine to overcome. Today's Quinnipiac poll shows DeWine moving from essentially tied in mid-September (Brown 45% - DeWine 44%) to down a sizable 12-points. Granted this is only one poll, and a Rasmussen Reports survey taken over the same time gives Brown only a 6-point lead. But with the RCP Average now at Brown +6.8%, and climbing, and with Strickland headed for a huge win in the governor's race, Sherrod Brown has to be considered the favorite.

Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: State of the Union | Right Angle | Sherrod Brown | From the Roots

State Newspaper Coverage: Cincinnati Enquirer | Columbus Dispatch

State Parties: OH GOP | OH Dems

 

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDeWine (R)Brown (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----43.856.2--Brown +12.4
RCP Average10/31 - 11/5--43.353.33.0Brown +10.0
SurveyUSA11/3 - 11/5436 LV42544Brown +12
Univ. of Cinci11/1 - 11/51074 LV4456--Brown +12
Columbus Dispatch*10/24 - 11/31541 RV3862--Brown +24
Mason-Dixon10/31 - 11/2625 LV44505Brown +6
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV42496Brown +7
Opinion Consultants10/22 - 10/30800 LV44515Brown +7
CNN10/26 - 10/29542 LV43543Brown +11
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 4749--Brown +2
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/25563 LV37576Brown +20
Rasmussen10/24 - 10/24500 LV43542Brown +11
LA Times/Bloomberg10/20 - 10/23507 LV394711Brown +8
Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/20625 LV40489Brown +8
Zogby Interactive*10/10 - 10/16750 LV4549--Brown +4
CBS News/NY Times10/11 - 10/15689 LV35499Brown +14
Quinnipiac10/10 - 10/15901 LV41537Brown +12
Univ. of Cinci10/9 - 10/14526 LV45522Brown +7
Rasmussen10/12 - 10/12500 LV42485Brown +6
SurveyUSA10/9 - 10/11515 LV40546Brown +14
Rasmussen10/3 - 10/3500 LV43504Brown +7
Reuters/Zogby9/25 - 10/2601 LV414117Tie
Univ. of Akron8/20 - 9/29477 LV424214Tie
Mason-Dixon9/25 - 9/27625 LV434510Brown +2
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25963 LV414514Brown +4
Columbus Dispatch*9/9 - 9/221791 RV424711Brown +5
SurveyUSA9/18 - 9/20490 LV42527Brown +10
Quinnipiac9/11 - 9/17876 LV444511Brown +1
University of Cincinnati9/7 - 9/17671 LV47512Brown +4
Rasmussen9/13 - 9/13500 LV41476Brown +6
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5807 LV414514Brown +4
USA Today/Gallup8/23 - 8/27584 LV40469Brown +6
Rasmussen8/22 - 8/22500 LV42458Brown +3
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/211045 LV394714Brown +8
SurveyUSA8/5 - 8/7503 LV41492Brown +8
Rasmussen7/27 - 7/27500 LV424414Brown +2
Columbus Dispatch*7/11 - 7/201654 RV374518Brown +8
Zogby Interactive*7/11 - 7/19953 LV374512Brown +8
Rasmussen6/20 - 6/20500 LV46398DeWine +7
Zogby Interactive*6/13 - 6/19785 RV3446--Brown +12
SurveyUSA6/10 - 6/12507 LV39482Brown +9
University of Cincinnati5/9 - 5/21643 RV52425DeWine +10
Battleground5/12 - 5/14650 LV55405DeWine +15
Rasmussen5/8 - 5/8500 LV414410Brown +3
Feldman Group4/4 - 4/27800 LV44455Brown +1
Mason-Dixon4/24 - 4/26625 LV4736--DeWine +11
Rasmussen4/19 - 4/19500 LV434111DeWine +2
Rasmussen3/28 - 3/28500 LV45429DeWine +3
Rasmussen2/16 - 2/16500 LV463710DeWine +9
Hart Research (D)2/2 - 2/7502 RV47368DeWine +11
Rasmussen1/3 - 1/3500 LV454010DeWine +5
Rasmussen11/30 - 11/30500 LV434110DeWine +2
Columbus Dispatch*10/24 - 11/31872 RV313522Brown +4