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New Jersey Senate Race

Candidates

Kean

Kean (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Robert Menendez

Robert Menendez (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Menendez +6.4 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Leans Democrat
Competitve House Races: NJ-7

Polling Data

PollDateSampleKean (R)Menendez (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----44.353.4--Menendez +9.1
RCP Average10/30 - 11/5--41.848.27.7Menendez +6.4
Quinnipiac10/30 - 11/5917 LV43489Menendez +5
USA Today/Gallup11/1 - 11/4877 LV40507Menendez +10
Monmouth/Gannett11/1 - 11/31086 LV424510Menendez +3
Marist11/1 - 11/3619 LV42508Menendez +8
Mason-Dixon11/1 - 11/3625 LV41488Menendez +7
Rasmussen11/1 - 11/1500 LV43484Menendez +5

All New Jersey Senate Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Senate
2004: Lautenberg 54, Forrester 44
2000: Corzine 50, Franks 47

President
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
2000: Gore 56, Bush 40
1996: Clinton 54, Dole 36

Demographics

Registered Voters: Dem 23.2% | Rep 17.7% | Other 59.1%
Occupation: Blue Collar 19.7% | White Collar 66.5% | Gray Collar 13.8%
Race: White 66.0% | Black 13.0% | Hispanic 13.3% | Asian 5.7%

Analysis

(November 7) Though there were a couple of close polls at the end showing a 3 and 5 point race, Menendez’ 6-point edge in the RCP Average should be enough of a cushion to hold off Kean, on the chance there is a sizable break to the Republican among undecideds.

(October 29) The two last polls showing 5 & 6 points leads for Menendez might be a sign that he has halted Kean’s recent momentum.

(October 26) The tide appears to have turned once again in this race. Kean had a nice run through mid-September and then Menendez pulled in to a 3-5 point lead in mid-October and now as we approach the end of October it looks like Kean has regained the momentum. On Sunday, we suggested that Kean needed “to turn around the momentum in this race and very soon,” and it looks like he has done just that.

Earlier this week Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker told RCP that he regarded New Jersey as the Republican's best shot after Tennessee and Virginia in the competitive senate races. The NRSC has also just purchased $4.5 million in NYC and Philly air time to hit the state in the closing days.
This race looks to be going down to the wire as Menendez is back below 45% in the RCP Average, not a great place for incumbents with ethical questions this cycle.

(October 22) Menendez continues to look like he has reestablished control in this race. The latest three telephone polls all show significant movement toward Menendez over the last month. Quinnipiac’s poll moved 7 points, Rasmussen’s 5 points and today’s Monmouth/Gannett a whopping 15 points. The latest RCP Average gives Menendez a 5.7% lead and Kean’s current InTrade bid has fallen all the way down to 26.2.

Given the inherent Democratic strengths in New Jersey and the overall anti-GOP mood pervasive in the national generic ballot Menendez certainly appears in considerably better shape than he did one month ago. We are still rating this race a toss up because of the ethical wild cards involved with Menendez, the fact that he is still closer to 45% in the RCP Average than 50%, the Kean name which helps on the margin and a general anti-incumbent mood which will work against Menendez. However, Kean does need to turn around the momentum in this race, and very soon, to give himself a decent shot on election day.

(October 12) New Jersey had been the one state this cycle where, because of the ethical clouds overhanging Menendez, Republicans thought they had a shot at bucking some of the anti-GOP mood nationwide. In our last update we suggested that Menendez needed to get his numbers above 45% and in 4 out of the last 5 polls he has been able to do that. Kean has clearly stumbled recently and it has shown in the polls as he has gone from a 3.5% lead in late September to a 3.5% deficit in the RCP Average today. Menendez will have a strong Democratic machine behind him down the stretch and on election day, and unless Kean can regain the initiative soon, or some very heavy shoes fall off in the Menendez investigations floating around in the background, this race looks like another opportunity this cycle the GOP is seeing slip away.

Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: PoliticsNJ | DynamoBuzz | Blue Jersey | Herb Jackson | Enlighten-NJ

State Newspaper Coverage: Newark Star-Ledger | Asbury Park Press

State Parties: NJ GOP | NJ Dems


Polling Data

PollDateSampleKean (R)Menendez (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----44.353.4--Menendez +9.1
RCP Average10/30 - 11/5--41.848.27.7Menendez +6.4
Quinnipiac10/30 - 11/5917 LV43489Menendez +5
Strategic Vision (R)11/2 - 11/4800 LV42499Menendez +7
USA Today/Gallup11/1 - 11/4877 LV40507Menendez +10
Monmouth/Gannett11/1 - 11/31086 LV424510Menendez +3
Marist11/1 - 11/3619 LV42508Menendez +8
Mason-Dixon11/1 - 11/3625 LV41488Menendez +7
Pub Op Str (R)10/31 - 11/2600 LV414313Menendez +2
Rasmussen11/1 - 11/1500 LV43484Menendez +5
Rutgers-Eagleton10/29 - 10/31500 LV424612Menendez +4
Fairleigh Dickinson10/25 - 10/31577 LV384814Menendez +10
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV37499Menendez +12
Strategic Vision (R)10/27 - 10/29800 LV424315Menendez +1
CNN10/26 - 10/29577 LV44514Menendez +7
Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/29887 LV44496Menendez +5
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 LV44496Menendez +5
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 4349--Menendez +6
Rasmussen10/25 - 10/25500 LV45456Tie
Bennett, Petts (D)10/23 - 10/25800 RV3645--Menendez +9
Research 200010/23 - 10/25600 LV42487Menendez +6
CBS News/NY Times10/20 - 10/25522 LV394010Menendez +1
LA Times/Bloomberg10/20 - 10/23314 LV414512Menendez +4
Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/21625 LV424511Menendez +3
Monmouth/Gannett10/16 - 10/19396 LV394810Menendez +9
Zogby Interactive *10/10 - 10/16902 LV4745--Kean +2
Rasmussen10/11 - 10/11500 LV40448Menendez +4
Quinnipiac10/4 - 10/10761 LV45496Menendez +4
Fairleigh Dickinson9/27 - 10/2514 LV394613Menendez +7
Reuters/Zogby9/25 - 10/2600 LV354615Menendez +11
Strategic Vision (R)9/29 - 10/1800 LV464113Kean +5
USA Today/Gallup9/27 - 10/1542 LV43469Menendez +3
Marist9/28 - 9/28460 RV423721Kean +5
Mason-Dixon9/24 - 9/27625 LV414413Menendez +3
Rutgers-Eagleton9/24 - 9/26404 LV444511Menendez +1
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25--414712Menendez +6
Rasmussen9/22 - 9/22500 LV414015Kean +1
Monmouth/Gannett9/18 - 9/21391 LV443814Kean +6
Quinnipiac9/13 - 9/18688 LV48456Kean +3
Strategic Vision (R)9/8 - 9/10800 LV444016Kean +4
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5761 LV404020Tie
Rasmussen8/28 - 8/28500 LV443912Kean +5
Fairleigh Dickinson8/21 - 8/27651 RV433917Kean +4
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/21715 LV414316Menendez +2
Strategic Vision (R)8/11 - 8/13800 LV404218Menendez +2
POS (R)7/31 - 8/2500 LV3938--Kean +1
Rasmussen7/25 - 7/25500 LV38445Menendez +6
Fairleigh Dickinson7/10 - 7/16675 RV404315Menendez +3
Monmouth/Gannett7/11 - 7/13802 A373820Menendez +1
Quinnipiac7/8 - 7/12985 RV403818Kean +2
Strategic Vision (R)7/7 - 7/9800 LV374320Menendez +6
Rasmussen6/21 - 6/21500 LV40468Menendez +6
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll6/14 - 6/19699 RV384217Menendez +4
Strategic Vision (R)6/16 - 6/18800 LV363826Menendez +2
Quinnipiac6/7 - 6/131099 RV364317Menendez +7
Rasmussen5/16 - 5/16500 LV403713Kean +3
Strategic Vision (R)5/12 - 5/14800 LV353530Tie
Quinnipiac4/18 - 4/241414 RV344020Menendez +6
Rasmussen4/11 - 4/11500 LV433614Kean +7
Strategic Vision (R)4/7 - 4/9800 LV343234Kean +2
Fairleigh Dickinson3/27 - 4/2685 RV423819Kean +4
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll3/26 - 3/30676 RV354020Menendez +5
Rasmussen3/28 - 3/28500 LV413915Kean +2
Quinnipiac3/8 - 3/141147 RV364019Menendez +4
Strategic Vision (R)3/6 - 3/8800 LV323038Kean +2
Fairleigh Dickinson2/27 - 3/6601 RV374221Menendez +5
Rasmussen2/14 - 2/14500 LV363917Menendez +3
Zogby2/8 - 2/10802 LV323728Menendez +5
Strategic Vision (R)2/3 - 2/5800 LV332839Kean +5
Quinnipiac1/18 - 1/23961 RV363822Menendez +2
Rasmussen1/18 - 1/18500 LV423518Kean +7
Fairleigh Dickinson1/3 - 1/10707 RV362537Kean +11
Quinnipiac12/10 - 12/13689 RV384416Menendez +6
Rasmussen12/7 - 12/7500 LV343818Menendez +4
Quinnipiac11/16 - 11/201111 RV394118Menendez +2

All Commentary & News Stories

- N.J. Democrat Is Target After Breaking From the Pack - Wash Post

- Lautenberg Tops Andrews - Newark Star-Ledger

- Incumbent Faces Ex-Congressman - AP