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Missouri Senate Race

Candidates

Jim Talent (R)*
Bio | Campaign Site

Claire McCaskill (D)
Bio | Campaign Site
RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: McCaskill + 2.5% | RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Polling Data
PollDateSampleTalent (R)*McCaskill (D)Und.Spread
RCP Average11/01 - 11/06-45.848.34.3McCaskill +2.5
SurveyUSA11/04 - 11/06793 LV44503McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen11/05 - 11/05500 LV49483Talent +1.0
USA Today/Gallup11/01 - 11/04917 LV45494McCaskill +4.0
Mason-Dixon11/01 - 11/03625 LV45467McCaskill +1.0
See All Missouri Senate Race Polling Data
RealClearPolitics Analysis
(November 2) This race has been back and forth the entire campaign. The most recent polls show a slight edge for McCaskill and she has moved back out in front in the latest RCP Poll Average by 1.4%, but this race is still a complete toss up. An argument to give McCaskill the edge is the fact that Talent’s opponents the last two times he has run statewide garnered 49% in 2000 and 2002, and in a Democratic year like 2006 one would think McCaskill is poised to better that 49% mark. On Talent’s side is the recent movement in the stem cell amendment fight where the anti-amendment forces appear to have the momentum. In a midterm election where substantially fewer moderate and suburban voters may turn out than in a Presidential year, does that provide the catalyst to get Talent over the top?
 
(October 19) Today’s Zogby/WSJ online poll gives Talent a three point lead. The InTrade market as of Thursday morning now gives Talent a slight lead at 51.0 bid compared to McCaskill’s 45.5 bid.

(October 13) The SurveyUSA poll giving McCaskill a 9-point lead is the clear outlier in the five polls in the current RCP Average which pegs McCaskill’s lead at 1.4%. We have said for some time that this race is really the bellwether for how the Senate ends up breaking, a GOP hold here and Republicans probably escape a disaster election night. A win for the Dems puts them right in the mix of what they need for control, with New Jersey and Tennessee likely becoming the tie breakers.

Talent has the GOP’s 72-hour program in his back pocket that Republicans hope is worth perhaps as much as 2-3% on election day, however the Final RCP Average in his race against Jean Carnahan in 2002 had Talent up 5.3%, he ended up wining by one point.
The last InTrade trades have McCaskill at 52.0 - Talent at 50.0, pretty dead on inline with the RCP Average and further confirmation that this race is a pure coin flip today.
(September 25) This is in many ways the bellwether race in the Battle for the Senate. First, from a pure numbers standpoint of the Democrats needing six seats to flip control, a loss here in Missouri basically puts that out of the realm of possibility. And second, the way this race tips the next six weeks will be a good indication of where the entire election is heading.

This is a contest the Republicans should win. Senator Talent is an attractive young star in the GOP Senate caucus who lost a tough race for Governor in 2000 by 20,000 votes. He then came back and won by 20,000 votes two years later over Mel Carnahan's wife Jean Carnahan, who had assumed the seat under unusual circumstances following her husband's death (before the 2000 election) and win over John Ashcroft.
State Auditor Claire McCaskill lost a close governor's race two years ago to Gov. Matt Blunt 51% - 48% and thus starts out of the gate with a high level of name recognition and a solid base of support. However, McCaskill lost 90 out of 97 counties statewide and has a problem of being perceived as too liberal outside of metro St. Louis and Kansas City. Missouri is a relatively, culturally conservative state that President Bush won by 3% in 2000 and 7% in 2004 and running the standard Republican playbook hitting McCaskill as too liberal on judges, the war, and taxes should be enough for Talent to carry the day.
If not, it would be a sign that Republicans are going to be in for an awfully long election night. The fact that this race is a toss up speaks to the difficulties Republicans are facing this midterm.
Previous Election Results

Senate
2002: Talent 50, Jean Carnahan 49
2000: Mel Carnahan 51, Ashcroft 48

President
2004: Bush 53, Kerry 46
2000: Bush 50, Gore 47
1996: Clinton 47, Dole 41

Demographics
Occupation: Blue Collar 26.0% | White Collar 58.3% | Gray Collar 15.7%
Race: White 83.8% | Black 11.2% | Hispanic 2.1% | Asian 1.1%
Military Veterans: 592, 271 13.2%

Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: Fired Up! MO | KC Buzz Blog | McCaskill | Talent

State Newspaper Coverage: Kansas City Star | St. Louis Post-Dispatch

State Parties: Mo GOP | Mo Dems


Recent Commentary & News Stories
- C. McCaskill, B. McCaffrey, D. Priest - Hardball w/ Chris Matthews
- The Allen-Talent Suburban Problem - Jonathan Martin, NRO
- MO: Senator-Elect Keeps 'Swagger' from Celebration - USA Today
- The New Southern Strategy - Bob Moser, The Nation
- MO: In Tough-to-Figure Missouri, the Senate's Future May Rest - Philadelphia Inquirer
See All Missouri Senate Race Commentary & News Stories
Polling Data
PollDateSampleTalent (R)*McCaskill (D)Und.Spread
RCP Average11/01 - 11/06-45.848.34.3McCaskill +2.5
SurveyUSA11/04 - 11/06793 LV44503McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen11/05 - 11/05500 LV49483Talent +1.0
SurveyUSA11/03 - 11/05658 LV42513McCaskill +9.0
USA Today/Gallup11/01 - 11/04917 LV45494McCaskill +4.0
Mason-Dixon11/01 - 11/03625 LV45467McCaskill +1.0
Rasmussen11/02 - 11/02500 LV48491McCaskill +1.0
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV43464McCaskill +3.0
Rasmussen10/30 - 10/30500 LV47483McCaskill +1.0
SurveyUSA10/28 - 10/30525 LV46494McCaskill +3.0
CNN10/26 - 10/29565 LV49491Tie
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV4947--Talent +2.0
Research 200010/23 - 10/26800 LV47474Tie
Rasmussen10/25 - 10/25500 LV50482Talent +2.0
SurveyUSA10/21 - 10/23630 LV48455Talent +3.0
LA Times/Bloomberg10/20 - 10/23593 LV48454Talent +3.0
Mason-Dixon10/17 - 10/19625 LV43469McCaskill +3.0
Zogby Interactive *10/10 - 10/161005 LV5047--Talent +3.0
Rasmussen10/12 - 10/12500 LV45448Talent +1.0
SurveyUSA10/09 - 10/11497 LV42514McCaskill +9.0
Bennett, Petts (D)10/09 - 10/11800 RV43488McCaskill +5.0
Rasmussen10/03 - 10/03500 LV46476McCaskill +1.0
Reuters/Zogby09/25 - 10/02601 LV433911Talent +4.0
USA Today/Gallup09/27 - 10/01577 LV45486McCaskill +3.0
Mason-Dixon09/24 - 09/27625 LV434313Tie
Zogby Interactive*09/19 - 09/251015 LV48478Talent +1.0
SurveyUSA09/11 - 09/13468 LV47484McCaskill +1.0
Rasmussen09/12 - 09/12500 LV424510McCaskill +3.0
Zogby Interactive*08/29 - 09/05n/a49456Talent +4.0
Research 200008/28 - 08/31800 LV46475McCaskill +1.0
USA Today/Gallup08/23 - 08/27574 LV50445Talent +6.0
Zogby Interactive*08/15 - 08/21831 LV50455Talent +5.0
Rasmussen08/15 - 08/15500 LV46447Talent +2.0
SurveyUSA08/12 - 08/14464 LV46475McCaskill +1.0
Rasmussen07/20 - 07/20500 LV42459McCaskill +3.0
Zogby Interactive*07/11 - 07/1949453Talent +4.0
Rasmussen06/27 - 06/27500 LV424212Tie
Research 200006/19 - 06/22800 LV43498McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen05/08 - 05/08500 LV434011Talent +3.0
Rasmussen04/04 - 04/04500 LV414213McCaskill +1.0
Rasmussen03/06 - 03/06500 LV404311McCaskill +3.0
Rasmussen02/08 - 02/08500 LV46417Talent +5.0
Research 200001/16 - 01/18800 LV44479McCaskill +3.0
Rasmussen01/02 - 01/02500 LV43467McCaskill +3.0
Rasmussen11/09 - 11/09500 LV45476McCaskill +2.0
Rasmussen09/01 - 09/01500 LV4646N/ATie
Harstad Strategic Res. (D)04/11 - 04/14602 LV434312Tie
All Commentary & News Stories
- C. McCaskill, B. McCaffrey, D. Priest - Hardball w/ Chris Matthews
- The Allen-Talent Suburban Problem - Jonathan Martin, NRO
- MO: Senator-Elect Keeps 'Swagger' from Celebration - USA Today
- The New Southern Strategy - Bob Moser, The Nation
- MO: In Tough-to-Figure Missouri, the Senate's Future May Rest - Philadelphia Inquirer
- MO: Bush Stumps for Talent - Carthage Press
- The Missouri Race Goes Purple - John Heilemann, New York Magazine
- McCaskill, Steele, Boehner, Roundtable - Fox News Sunday
- MO: Nearing Vote, Senate Race Too Close to Call - Kansas City Star
- MO: Show-Me State Seen as Must-Watch on Tuesday - ABC News
- MO: How Talent Plans to Win - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: How McCaskill Plans to Win - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- Erasing Kerry's Gifts & No to Cloning in MO? - Robert Novak, Chicago ST
- MO: Bush in Mo. to Campaign for Sen. Talent - Associated Press
- MO: Stem Cells a Wild Card in Senate Contest - CS Monitor
- MO: Down the Stretch with Talent and McCaskill - The Hill
- MO: McCaskill Tries to Use Bush Visit Against Talent - Associated Press
- In Missouri, A Referendum on Bush? - Brendan Miniter, Opinion Journal
- MO: Campaign Takes Low Road Through Crucial Missouri - The Hill
- MO: Big Names Stump for Candidates - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Talent Tells GOP Faithful to 'Get Busy' Getting Out the Vote - Associated Press
- The Stem Cell Hard Sell - Duncan Currie, Weekly Standard
- Interview with Michael J. Fox - This Week w/ George Stephanopoulos
- MO: Michael J. Fox Says he Wasn't Off Meds for Ad - Associated Press
- MO: McCaskill Makes up Ground on Talent in Money Race - Kansas City Star
- Spin City: Michael J. Fox & The Truth on Stem Cells - R. Anderson, WS
- Michael J. Fox's Unconscionable Claims - M. Davenport, American Thinker
- Campaign '06: Courting Missouri's Moms - Massimo Calabresi, Time
- MO: Campaigns Seize Opportunity in World Series Advertising - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Court Black Voters - Associated Press
- MO: Senate Hopefuls Look to Rural Voters - Associated Press
- MO: Illegal Immigration Debate Spills Into Senate Race - Associated Press
- MO: Talent Goes on Offensive in Debate With McCaskill - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: On Economy, McCaskill, Talent Mark Their Territory - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- Misleading Measure May Launch U.S. Cloning - Robert Novak, Chicago ST
- MO: Tacit Silence on Stem Cell Research in Missouri Race - New York Times
- The Missouri Senate Showdown - Lee Hudson Teslik, Newsweek
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Put Contrasts on Display During Debate - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- Democrats Taking Aim at Seats in Red States - Los Angeles Times
- MO: Senate Candidates Differ on Talks with N. Korea - Associated Press
- Missouri Debaters Battle for the Suburbs - Washington Post
- MO: Talent Stresses Independence from Bush - Washington Times
- Missouri Senate Debate: McCaskill vs. Talent - Meet the Press
- McCaskill Offers Little New for Blacks - Sylvester Brown Jr., St. Louis PD
- MO: Talent-McCaskill Race Makes National Scene - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Obama Stumps For McCaskill In Senate Race - Associated Press
- MO: Michael J. Fox Stumps for Research, McCaskill - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Outside Money Fuels Senate Race - Associated Press
- MO: Where They Stand: Talent, McCaskill on Health Care - Associated Press
- MO: Drug Plan Splits Senate Candidates - Columbia Daily Tribune
- MO: Michael J. Fox to Host McCaskill Fundraiser - Associated Press
- MO: Dems Count on Minimum Wage, Stem Cells to Topple Talent - The Hill
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Split on Four Hot Issues - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Aim for Heart - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: McCaskill Plan Offers Tax Cuts to Middle Class - Columbia Daily Tribune
- MO: Are We Safer? Talent and McCaskill Disagree - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- Under Fire, McCaskill Retreats in Missouri - Washington Times
- Democrats Can Win on Immigration - Froma Harrop, Providence Journal
- MO: Clinton Appearances Electrify Dem Faithful - Springfield News-Leader
- MO: Neglected by Dems, Blacks Jump Party Line - St. Louis PD
- MO: Bush Attends Fundraiser For Talent - Columbia Daily Tribune
- Interview with Claire McCaskill - Hardball w/ Chris Matthews
- Greg Giroux on Missouri Senate Race (Video) - Washington Journal
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Voice Divergent Solutions on Immigration - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Talent Pulls Even With McCaskill - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- GOP Lags in Key Races For Senate - USA Today
- MO: Poll Shows Talent w/Slight Lead Over McCaskill - Associated Press
- MO: Talent Rngs in New Farm Tour - Columbia Daily Tribune
- Acrimony in the Show-Me State - George Will, Sacramento Bee
- MO: Political Eyes on Hot Fuel - Kansas City Star
- MO Senate Poll: Talent (R) 46% McCaskill (D) 44% - Rasmussen Reports
- Show-Me State Showdown - Gloria Borger, US News & World Report
- MO Senate Poll: McCaskill (D) 47% Talent (R) 46% - Survey USA
- MO: Senate Candidates Line Up for Sprint to Finish - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO Senate Poll: McCaskill (D) 45% Talent (R) 42% - Rasmussen Reports
- MO: GOP Files Complaint About McCaskill Financial Disclosure - Post-Dispatch
- Stem Cell Politics Bad for Republicans - Froma Harrop, Providence Journal
- Conversation with MO-Sen Candidate Claire McCaskill - Jonathan Singer, MyDD
- MO: Talent Widens Money Lead Over McCaskill - Kansas City Star/AP
- MO: Rural Vote Courted in Missouri 'Barnburner' - USA Today
- MO Senate Poll: Talent and McCaskill Tied at 42% - Rasmussen Reports
- US News on Missouri Senate Race: Wishful Thinking? - Carol Platt Liebau
- Showdown in the Show-Me State - Angie Marek, US News & World Report
- Tom DeLay, Claire McCaskill (Transcript) - Hardball
- MO Senate Poll: McCaskill (D) 49% Talent (R) 43% - KMOV
- MO: Talent, McCaskill Receive Their Funds from All Over - St. Louis PD
- MO Senate Poll: Talent (R) 43% McCaskill (D) 40% - Rasmussen Reports
- MO: Talent Opposes Stem-Cell Measure - Kansas City Star
- MO: Talent Leans on House GOP to Win Reelection to Senate - The Hill
- MO Senate Poll: McCaskill (D) 42% Talent (R) 41% - Rasmussen Reports
- MO: Missouri Race Is a 'Toss-Up' - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO Senate Poll: McCaskill 43% Talent 40% - Rasmussen Reports
- MO: Upbeat Missouri Democrats Press Sharp Attacks on GOP - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- MO: Talent v. McCaskill: The Big Money Race - St. Louis Business Journal
- Will Stem Cells Cost Senator Talent Re-Election? - Eleanor Clift, Newsweek
- Talent's Stem Cell Switch Is Under Fire - St. Louis Post-Dispatch