(November 2) This race has been back and forth the entire campaign. The most recent polls show a slight edge for McCaskill and she has moved back out in front in the latest RCP Poll Average by 1.4%, but this race is still a complete toss up. An argument to give McCaskill the edge is the fact that Talent’s opponents the last two times he has run statewide garnered 49% in 2000 and 2002, and in a Democratic year like 2006 one would think McCaskill is poised to better that 49% mark. On Talent’s side is the recent movement in the stem cell amendment fight where the anti-amendment forces appear to have the momentum. In a midterm election where substantially fewer moderate and suburban voters may turn out than in a Presidential year, does that provide the catalyst to get Talent over the top? (October 19) Today’s Zogby/WSJ online poll gives Talent a three point lead. The InTrade market as of Thursday morning now gives Talent a slight lead at 51.0 bid compared to McCaskill’s 45.5 bid. (October 13) The SurveyUSA poll giving McCaskill a 9-point lead is the clear outlier in the five polls in the current RCP Average which pegs McCaskill’s lead at 1.4%. We have said for some time that this race is really the bellwether for how the Senate ends up breaking, a GOP hold here and Republicans probably escape a disaster election night. A win for the Dems puts them right in the mix of what they need for control, with New Jersey and Tennessee likely becoming the tie breakers. Talent has the GOP’s 72-hour program in his back pocket that Republicans hope is worth perhaps as much as 2-3% on election day, however the Final RCP Average in his race against Jean Carnahan in 2002 had Talent up 5.3%, he ended up wining by one point. The last InTrade trades have McCaskill at 52.0 - Talent at 50.0, pretty dead on inline with the RCP Average and further confirmation that this race is a pure coin flip today. (September 25) This is in many ways the bellwether race in the Battle for the Senate. First, from a pure numbers standpoint of the Democrats needing six seats to flip control, a loss here in Missouri basically puts that out of the realm of possibility. And second, the way this race tips the next six weeks will be a good indication of where the entire election is heading.
This is a contest the Republicans should win. Senator Talent is an attractive young star in the GOP Senate caucus who lost a tough race for Governor in 2000 by 20,000 votes. He then came back and won by 20,000 votes two years later over Mel Carnahan's wife Jean Carnahan, who had assumed the seat under unusual circumstances following her husband's death (before the 2000 election) and win over John Ashcroft. State Auditor Claire McCaskill lost a close governor's race two years ago to Gov. Matt Blunt 51% - 48% and thus starts out of the gate with a high level of name recognition and a solid base of support. However, McCaskill lost 90 out of 97 counties statewide and has a problem of being perceived as too liberal outside of metro St. Louis and Kansas City. Missouri is a relatively, culturally conservative state that President Bush won by 3% in 2000 and 7% in 2004 and running the standard Republican playbook hitting McCaskill as too liberal on judges, the war, and taxes should be enough for Talent to carry the day. If not, it would be a sign that Republicans are going to be in for an awfully long election night. The fact that this race is a toss up speaks to the difficulties Republicans are facing this midterm.
| 
Democratic Field
