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Connecticut Senate Race

Candidates

Lieberman

Lieberman (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

Lamont

Lamont (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Lieberman +11.8 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Likely Lieberman
Key State Races: Governor | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLieberman (I)Lamont (D)Schlesinger (R)Spread
Final Results----49.739.79.6Lieberman +10.0
RCP Average10/24 - 11/5--49.838.08Lieberman +11.8
Quinnipiac10/31 - 11/5676 LV50388Lieberman +12
SurveyUSA11/2 - 11/4652 LV49389Lieberman +11
Research 200010/30 - 11/1600 LV51397Lieberman +12
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV49378Lieberman +12

All Connecticut Senate Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Senate
2000: Lieberman 63, Giordano 34
1994: Lieberman 67, Labriola 31

President
2004: Kerry 54, Bush 44
2000: Gore 56, Bush 38
1996: Clinton 52, Dole 35

Demographics

Registered Voters: Dem 34.2% | Rep 22.9% | Other 43.0%

Occupation: Blue Collar 19.9% | White Collar 65.6% | Gray Collar 14.5%

Race: White 77.5% | Hispanic 9.4% | Black 8.7% | Asian 2.4%

Analysis

October 29: The best news for Lamont is Schlesinger appears to be climbing a little in the polls. The latest Rasmussen poll has the Republican Schlesinger at 9%, up from the 5%-6% area he had been in earlier Rasmussen polls. The last ARG poll had him at 8% up from 3% in their previous polls. We have felt Lamont has basically no chance with Schlesinger polling in the single digits, and if indeed some Republicans are coming home to Schlesinger as the campaign closes, this could give a little life to the Lamont campaign. But Lamont needs Schlesinger to get over 10%, not just the high single-digits to have a long-shot’s chance at overtaking Lieberman. A quick glance at a chart of the RCP Average in this race shows pretty clearly that Lieberman has been in control in this contest since Labor Day.

October 12: Lieberman continues to be cruising here, and as long as the Republican Schlesinger can’t get in to double digits, in fact can’t even get over 5%, we don’t see how Lamont can possibly win.

September 28: Lieberman leads by 10 points, 49% - 39%, over Lamont in a poll released this morning from Quinnipiac University. Poll Director Douglas Schwartz says: ""Ned Lamont has lost momentum. He's gained only two points in six weeks. He's going to have to do something different in the next six weeks or Sen. Joseph Lieberman stays in for another six years." In our opinion Lamont peaked about a week before the August primary and has been slowly losing altitude ever since. Ironically, it was Lieberman who came out of the primary with momentum which was hugely important as it served to mute the bump Lamont would have been expected to receive for pulling off the improbable upset.

The number that we find so problematic for Ned Lamont is 5%. That is the horserace number that the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger has in this latest Quinnipiac. The other polling firms that have the Lieberman-Lamont horserace closer than Quinnipiac still have Schlesinger in the 3% - 7% range; Schlesinger's RCP Avg is 5%. Republicans and registered Independents make up over 65% of the electorate in Connecticut, and given Lieberman won 48% in the Democratic primary, Lamont is going to be very hard pressed to outgun Lieberman when the entire electorate will be voting in November.

The RCP Average in this race today shows Lieberman ahead by 6.7%. Pundits can talk all they want about the anti-war sentiment in the Northeast and how Lieberman will lack the party infrastructure so important to getting the vote out, at the end of the day if the Republican nominee can't get into double-figures it is going to be very hard for Ned Lamont to win.

 

August 23: Our reason for focusing on Lieberman’s distance from 40% in the primary results was his need to retain roughly a third of Democratic voters to prevail in the general. That analysis counted on Schlesinger doing considerably better than the 5% he is currently polling. If Schlesinger can be kept in the single digits, Lieberman can win with less than a third of Democratic support, which is why he has the edge.

August 9: Incredibly, for a sitting three-term Senator who just lost to a political neophyte, in many ways Lieberman is the guy who comes out of the primary with momentum. A month ago it was not unreasonable to assume that Lamont would have received a significant boost from a win, but the polls seem to indicate Lamont peaked near the end of July. Bill Clinton's July 24th visit may have been more of a turning point than was commonly thought at the time. In our pre-election analysis we suggested that Lieberman's distance from 40% would be the best tell on how the three-way would shakeout. With his very solid 48.2%, Lieberman is in an extremely strong position to win in November.

August 7: Quinnipiac's final poll gives Lieberman a ray of hope as it is the first poll that has moved in his direction since February. Conceivably, Lamont may have peaked too soon giving Lieberman a window to squeak by, but the balance of evidence still points to Lamont having the broader momentum as well as the turnout advantage. With Lamont likely to win the primary, the question turns to the three-way in the fall....more.

July 21:Lieberman Going Down in Primary
It was August 7, 2000 when Al Gore picked Joe Lieberman to be his running mate. In a little under three weeks on August 8, 2006, Joe Lieberman’s 35-year political career as a Democrat is likely going to come to an end. (more....)

Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

Blogs: Connecticut Local Politics | CT Conservative | CT Blue | Red Notes from a Blue State | ConnecticutBlog | Ned Lamont

State Newspaper Coverage: Hartford Courant | New London Day

State Parties: Ct GOP | Ct Dems

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLieberman (I)Lamont (D)Schlesinger (R)Spread
Final Results----49.739.79.6Lieberman +10.0
RCP Average10/24 - 11/5--49.838.08Lieberman +11.8
Quinnipiac10/31 - 11/5676 LV50388Lieberman +12
SurveyUSA11/2 - 11/4652 LV49389Lieberman +11
Research 200010/30 - 11/1600 LV51397Lieberman +12
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/31600 LV49378Lieberman +12
Quinnipiac10/24 - 10/30926 LV49378Lieberman +12
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 LV48409Lieberman +8
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 47436Lieberman +4
American Res. Group10/18 - 10/20600 LV49378Lieberman +12
Quinnipiac10/17 - 10/19881 LV52356Lieberman +17
Zogby Interactive *10/10 - 10/16531 LV49434Lieberman +6
SurveyUSA10/8 - 10/10572 LV53404Lieberman +13
Univ. of Connecticut10/4 - 10/9637 LV48404Lieberman +8
Rasmussen10/3 - 10/3550 LV51406Lieberman +11
Reuters/Zogby9/25 - 10/2601 LV53334Lieberman +20
Quinnipiac9/21 - 9/251181 LV49395Lieberman +10
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25550 LV46444Lieberman +2
American Res. Group9/15 - 9/19600 LV47453Lieberman +2
Rasmussen9/13 - 9/14550 LV45435Lieberman +2
SurveyUSA9/9 - 9/11572 LV51387Lieberman +13
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5531 LV46423Lieberman +4
Pub Op Str (R)8/27 - 8/29600 LV51354Lieberman +16
Rasmussen8/21 - 8/21550 LV45436Lieberman +2
American Res. Group8/17 - 8/21790 LV44423Lieberman +2
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/21533 LV49392Lieberman +10
Quinnipiac8/10 - 8/141083 LV53414Lieberman +12
Rasmussen8/9 - 8/10500 LV46416Lieberman +5
Rasmussen7/20 - 7/201000 LV404013Tie
Quinnipiac7/13 - 7/182502 RV51279Lieberman +24
Rasmussen6/12 - 6/12500 LV442915Lieberman +15
Quinnipiac5/31 - 6/62114 RV56188Lieberman +38
Quinnipiac4/25 - 4/301536 RV561310Lieberman +43
Rasmussen4/27 - 4/27500 LV4720--Lieberman +27