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Connecticut Senate Primary

Candidates

Joe Lieberman
Bio | Campaign

Ned Lamont
Bio | Campaign
RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Lamont + 8.7% | RCP Chart


Polling Data
PollDateSampleLiebermanLamontUndSpread
RCP Average07/20 - 08/06-43.051.75.3Lamont +8.7
Quinnipiac07/31 - 08/06784 LV45514Lamont +6.0
The Day (Res. 2000)08/01 - 08/03600 LV43534Lamont +10.0
Rasmussen07/20 - 07/201000 LV41518Lamont +10.0
See All Connecticut Senate Primary Polling Data
RealClearPolitics Analysis

August 7: Quinnipiac's final poll gives Lieberman a ray of hope as it is the first poll that has moved in his direction since February. Conceivably, Lamont may have peaked too soon giving Lieberman a window to squeak by, but the balance of evidence still points to Lamont having the broader momentum as well as the turnout advantage. With Lamont likely to win the primary, the question turns to the three-way in the fall (assuming Lieberman stays in the race).

Looking at the state's registration and recent voting trends, 40% is the rough number Lieberman needs to stay above in order to remain the favorite in the three-way race against Lamont. Given all of the energy on the challenger's side, it wouldn't be surprising if Lamont outperforms the polls, and perhaps significantly. If Lamont wins by more than 20 points (62-38), Lieberman is in all likelihood finished. However, if Lieberman is able to pull within single digits that would be a very good sign for his chances in the fall. Lieberman's distance from 40% will be the best tell on how the three-way race will shake out.

And of course if Lieberman pulls off the come from behind victory, while crushing for the far left, it will be a big win for the Democratic Party.

July 21:Lieberman Going Down in Connecticut
It was August 7, 2000 when Al Gore picked Joe Lieberman to be his running mate. In a little under three weeks on August 8, 2006, Joe Lieberman’s 35-year political career as a Democrat is likely going to come to an end. (more....)

 

Previous Election Results

Senate
2000: Lieberman 63, Giordano 34
1994: Lieberman 67, Labriola 31

President
2004: Kerry 54, Bush 44
2000: Gore 56, Bush 38
1996: Clinton 53, Dole 35
Demographics

Registered Voters: Democrats 682,478 (34.2%)

Occupation: Blue Collar 19.9% | White Collar 65.6% | Gray Collar 14.5%

Race: White 77.5% | Hispanic 9.4% | Black 8.7% | Asian 2.4%


Links for More Information

Money Race: Latest FEC Filings

State Newspaper Coverage: Hartford Courant | New London Day

State Parties: Ct GOP | Ct Dems

 

Recent Commentary & News Stories
- Problem-Solving Trumps Polarization - Dan Gerstein, Blueprint Magazine
- The Irrelevance of Joe Lieberman - Ari Melber, The Nation
- Sen. Joe Lieberman Interview (Video) - Hannity & Colmes
- McCain, Lieberman, Dowd, Gregory - Meet the Press
- Lieberman's Moment - Barry Casselman, RealClearPolitics
See All Connecticut Senate Primary Commentary & News Stories
Polling Data
PollDateSampleLiebermanLamontUndSpread
RCP Average07/20 - 08/06-43.051.75.3Lamont +8.7
Quinnipiac07/31 - 08/06784 LV45514Lamont +6.0
The Day (Res. 2000)08/01 - 08/03600 LV43534Lamont +10.0
Quinnipiac07/25 - 07/31890 LV41545Lamont +13.0
Rasmussen07/20 - 07/201000 LV41518Lamont +10.0
Quinnipiac07/13 - 07/18653 LV47512Lamont +4.0
Rasmussen06/12 - 06/12218 LV4640n/aLieberman +6.0
Quinnipiac05/31 - 06/06465 LV55404Lieberman +15.0
Quinnipiac04/25 - 04/30528 RV651914Lieberman +46.0
Quinnipiac02/10 - 02/14345 RV681317Lieberman +55.0
All Commentary & News Stories
- Problem-Solving Trumps Polarization - Dan Gerstein, Blueprint Magazine
- The Irrelevance of Joe Lieberman - Ari Melber, The Nation
- Sen. Joe Lieberman Interview (Video) - Hannity & Colmes
- McCain, Lieberman, Dowd, Gregory - Meet the Press
- Lieberman's Moment - Barry Casselman, RealClearPolitics
- CT: Still A Democrat, Joe Says, To Preserve Seniority - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lieberman Looks to Complete Comeback After his Primary Defeat - Newsday/AP
- The Nation's Lieberman Factor - William F. Buckley, National Review
- CT: Final Push: A Burst of Energy With Finish Line in Site - New Haven Register
- CT: Rivals Meet On The Street - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lamont Shouted Down - Hartford Courant
- Liberal Bloggers Rip Party Over Lamont - Washington Times
- CT: Failed '04 Presidential Run Hardened Lieberman's Independent Ways - New York Times
- CT: For Lamont, Baby Steps on the Political Proving Ground - New York Times
- CT: Lamont Campaign Laments Lack of Help From National Democrats - The Hill
- In Lamont Race, Bitter Dems Do Pre-Mortems - Jason Horowitz, NYO
- CT: Pressing Lieberman Once More, Lamont Shifts Back to Iraq War - New York Times
- Joementum Returns - Matthew Continetti, Weekly Standard
- Lamont Refocuses on the War - John Nichols, The Nation
- U.S. Senate: Mr. Lieberman - Hartford Courant
- CT: Bloomberg Sends Troops to Help Lieberman - New York Times
- CT: Lamont Hopes G.O.P. Rival Will Weaken Lieberman - New York Times
- CT: War Debate Key Issue In Endorsements - Hartford Courant
- Connecticut Crucible for a War Debate - David Broder, Washington Post
- CT: Lieberman Blasted on All Sides at Debate - Associated Press
- Joe Lieberman: A Democrat McCain - Daniel Henninger, Wall St. Journal
- Lamont vs. Lieberman, Round 2 - Bruce Shapiro, The Nation
- CT: Lieberman's Iraq Stance Draws Fire in Debate - New York Times
- CT: Lieberman and Lamont Turn Debate to Home Front - New York Times
- CT: Debate Livened Up By Schlesinger - Hartford Courant
- CT: Not-So-Hidden Asset, His Wife, Is Force in Lamont's Senate Bid - New York Times
- CT: Joe Lieberman In No Man's Land - Hartford Courant
- Political Climate Warms to Lieberman's Favor - New York Times
- A 'Liberal with Sanity' - Ed Koch, RealClearPolitics
- Will Lamont Beat Lieberman Again? (Video) - Hardball w/ Chris Matthews
- Lieberman Race Preview of McCain Strategy - Peter Brown, Quinnipiac
- CT: Lieberman's Varying Views on Rumsfeld - Stamford Advocate
- CT: Lamont Still The Novice - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lieberman Hit On Torture - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lieberman Assails Lamont Over Commitment to Israel - New York Times
- CT: Lieberman Says He's Been Promised Seniority - The Hill
- Lieberman Won't Forget - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lamont Blasts Lieberman Over Detainee Bill - Journal Inquirer
- CT: Kerry to Campaign for Lamont - Associated Press
- Will CT Be Netroots' Waterloo? - Jim Geraghty, Washington Times
- PA-6: Gerlach Up is Bad News for Dems | Lieberman in Control - RCP Blog
- Lieberman-Lamont Race Gets Nasty - Jason Zengerle, The New Republic
- CT: Lieberman Assails Rival's Plan for Iraq - Washington Times
- The Kiss of Death in Connecticut - Kenneth Cain, GQ Magazine
- CT: Lamont Adds Planks to Platform - New York Times
- Whither Ned Lamont? - Kevin Rennie, Hartford Courant
- CT: Presidential Hopefuls Do a Delicate Dance With Lamont (and Vice Versa) - NY Times
- CT: GOP Could Bag $450,000 At Lunch With Bush - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lamont Turns to Healthcare - Hartford Courant
- CT: Bloomberg Books Fund-Raiser for Lieberman - New York Daily News
- Lieberman's Loss is a Victory for Gore - Salena Zito, Pitt Tribune-Review
- CT: Lamont: U.S. Weaker Because of Iraq War - Associated Press
- CT: Lamont Takes Aim at Lieberman's Voting Record - Stamford Advocate
- CT: Lamont Hailed Lieberman in '98 Email - Associated Press
- CT: No Picnic For Ned - Hartford Courant
- CT: Lieberman Points Out a Turnabout by Lamont - New York Times
- CT: As Outsider, Lieberman Walks a Tricky Path - New York Times
- CT: Lamont Criticizes Lieberman's 1998 Rebuke of Clinton Over Affair - New York Times
- CT: Democrats Act Out an Episode of `Everyone Loves Lieberman' - Los Angeles Times
- CT: Ned Lamont Tries to Carve Out Some Middle Ground - The Hill
- CT: Senate Rivals Expand Campaign Themes - New York Times
- CT: Senate Candidates Eager to Square Off - Greenwich Time
- Enviros Split in Conn. Senate Race - Amanda Griscom Little, Grist Magazine
- Lieberman's Right on Another War: Vouchers - L. Cohen, Hartford Courant
- CT: Lieberman Gains G.O.P. Ally but Loses a Democratic One - New York Times
- The Politics of Personal Destruction - J.C. Watts, Las Vegas Review-Journal
- Spending: Dems Still Don't Get It - David Boaz, New York Post
- Will Lieberman's Run Help GOP Candidates? (Video) - FOX News
- Lieberman's Run Shadows House Campaigns in Connecticut - NY Times
- Building a New Politics of Unity - Sen. Joe Lieberman, Hartford Courant
- What Voters Want From Their Senator - Ned Lamont, Hartford Courant
- CT: Hillary To Aid Lefty Lamont - New York Post
- CT: Lieberman to Consider Iraq Pullout Plan - Associated Press
- Inside Report: Democrat Lieberman - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
- Lieberman's Independent Status - David Shribman, Universal Press
- The Lieberman Conundrum - Terence Samuel, The American Prospect
- A Gathering Anti-Incumbent Storm? - Jeff Greenfield, CNN
- CT: Effort to Oust Lieberman from Democratic Rolls Fails - CQ
- The Ghost of Terri Schiavo - Michael Smerconish, Philadelphia Daily News
- Lieberman Turns Defense of Iraq War Into an Offense - New York Times
- CT: Lieberman Qualifies for Ballot Spot - Hartford Courant
- CT: Paradoxes of the Senate Race - Christian Science Monitor
- CT Senate Poll: Lieberman (I) 45% Lamont (D) 43% - Rasmussen Reports
- CT: Lieberman Warns of Danger of the U.S. Pulling Out of Iraq - New York Times
- CT: The Race To Lure The Big Donors - Hartford Courant
- Paul Hackett, Van Taylor, Alan Schlesinger - Hardball
- Some Dems Want Lieberman Out of Party - Associated Press
- How Lieberman Will Help Ct. Republicans - Kevin Rennie, RealClearPolitics
- CT: Lieberman Jabs at Rumsfeld - New York Times
- CT: Kerry Calls Lieberman 'Out of Step' with Voters - Boston Globe
- The Netroots' Iraq Advantage - David Hogberg, The American Spectator
- Sen. Joe Lieberman, Jim VandeHei - Face the Nation
- G.O.P. Gets Behind Lieberman in Connecticut - New York Times
- The Ned Scare: Is it 1972 All Over Again? - Peter Beinart, The New Republic
- Ned Lamont: Henry Wallace with a Website - Barry Casselman, RCP