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Wisconsin Governor Race

Candidates

Green

Green (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jim Doyle

Jim Doyle (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Doyle +6.0 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Leans Democrat
Competitve House Races: WI-8

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGreen (R)Doyle (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----45.352.8--Doyle +7.5
RCP Average10/18 - 11/1--42.848.86.0Doyle +6.0
Research 200010/30 - 11/1600 LV44504Doyle +6
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 47476Tie
U. of WI10/18 - 10/26508 A365010Doyle +14
Rasmussen10/18 - 10/18500 LV44484Doyle +4

All Wisconsin Governor Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Governor
2002: Doyle 45, McCallum 41, Thompson 10
1998: Thompson 60, Garvey 39

President
2004: Kerry 50, Bush 49
2000: Gore 48, Bush 48, Nader 4
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 38

Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 28.4% | White Collar 56.6% | Gray Collar 15.0%
Race: White 87.3% | Black 5.6% | Hispanic 3.6% | Asian 1.6%

Analysis

(October 29) We don’t buy the double-digit polls in this race, but it does look like Doyle has established a firm lead. The recent University of Wisconsin poll showing Green trailing by 14 points, was not of likely voters, a very important distinction this close to election day. However, given the prevailing anti-GOP winds the edge has to be with the Democrat. 

(October 20) Doyle has maintained a pretty consistent 5 point lead in the RCP Average this last month. We still view this race as a toss up. The 13 point WPR lead for Doyle looks to be an outlier.

Links for More Information

More Analysis: Washington Post

State Newspaper Coverage: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel | Madison Capital Times

State Parties: Wi GOP | Wi Dems

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGreen (R)Doyle (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----45.352.8--Doyle +7.5
RCP Average10/18 - 11/1--42.848.86.0Doyle +6.0
Strategic Vision (R)11/2 - 11/4800 LV45487Doyle +3
Research 200010/30 - 11/1600 LV44504Doyle +6
Strategic Vision (R)10/27 - 10/29800 LV45478Doyle +2
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 47476Tie
U. of WI10/18 - 10/26508 A365010Doyle +14
Rasmussen10/18 - 10/18500 LV44484Doyle +4
Zogby Interactive*10/10 - 10/16877 LV46476Doyle +1
WPR10/9 - 10/16400 LV38517Doyle +13
Pub Op Str (R)10/10 - 10/12600 LV404218Doyle +2
Abacus (D)10/9 - 10/12708 LV414710Doyle +6
Strategic Vision (R)10/6 - 10/8800 LV434611Doyle +3
Research 200010/2 - 10/4600 LV42489Doyle +6
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25--444610Doyle +2
WI Policy Res.9/20 - 9/21600 LV404515Doyle +5
Strategic Vision (R)9/15 - 9/17800 LV424612Doyle +4
Rasmussen9/14 - 9/14500 LV44477Doyle +3
Research 20009/5 - 9/7600 LV404910Doyle +9
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5n/a 46495Doyle +3
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/21n/a 43507Doyle +7
Research 20008/14 - 8/16600 LV384814Doyle +10
Strategic Vision (R)8/11 - 8/13800 LV444511Doyle +1
Rasmussen8/10 - 8/10500 LV41497Doyle +8
Strategic Vision (R)7/14 - 7/16800 LV424315Doyle +1
Rasmussen7/12 - 7/12500 LV41478Doyle +6
U. of WI6/23 - 7/2508 A364915Doyle +13
WI Policy Res.6/18 - 6/19600 A374914Doyle +12
Strategic Vision (R)6/2 - 6/4800 LV46459Green +1
Strategic Vision (R)4/28 - 4/30800 LV434512Doyle +2
Rasmussen4/20 - 4/20500 LV43476Doyle +4
Strategic Vision (R)4/7 - 4/9800 LV434314Tie
WPR3/29 - 4/7400 A354322Doyle +8
Rasmussen3/20 - 3/20500 LV404515Doyle +5
Strategic Vision (R)3/3 - 3/5800 LV444412Tie
Strategic Vision (R)1/27 - 1/29800 LV434413Doyle +1
Rasmussen1/23 - 1/23500 LV41486Doyle +7
Strategic Vision (R)12/16 - 12/18800 LV434512Doyle +2
Rasmussen12/8 - 12/8500 LV394510Doyle +6
Strategic Vision (R)11/11 - 11/13800 RV44479Doyle +3
WPR10/31 - 11/11400 A324523Doyle +13
Strategic Vision (R)10/17 - 10/19800 RV434710Doyle +4
WI Policy Res.10/2 - 10/4600 A334621Doyle +13