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Minnesota Governor Race

Candidates

Pawlenty

Pawlenty (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mike Hatch

Mike Hatch (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot
RCP Average: Hatch +2.4 % |RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
Key State Races: Senate | MN-6

Polling Data

PollDateSamplePawlenty (R)Hatch (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----45.746.7--Pawlenty +1.0
RCP Average10/23 - 11/6--42.645.04.6Hatch +2.4
Star Tribune11/5 - 11/6747 LV44417Hatch +3
SurveyUSA11/3 - 11/5710 LV45451Tie
Rasmussen11/1 - 11/1500 LV47451Hatch +2
U. of Minnesota10/23 - 10/28663 LV45397Hatch +6
Mason-Dixon10/23 - 10/27625 LV44437Hatch +1

All Minnesota Governor Race Polling Data

Previous Elections

Governor
2002: Pawlenty 44, Moe 36, Penny 16
1998: Ventura 37, Coleman 34, Humphrey 28

President
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
2000: Gore 48, Bush 46
1996: Clinton 51, Dole 35

Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 23.3% | White Collar 62.3% | Gray Collar 14.4%
Race: White 88.2% | Black 3.4% | Hispanic 2.9% | Asian 2.9%

Analysis

(November 7) We think Pawlenty hangs on in a very tough year for Republicans.

(November 4) This race is a case of which polls do you believe? The Star-Tribune and the two university polls indicating a 6-10 point Hatch lead or Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA which all have this a one point race. We believe the one point polls. This race is very, very close.

Polling Data

PollDateSamplePawlenty (R)Hatch (D)Und.Spread
Final Results----45.746.7--Pawlenty +1.0
RCP Average10/23 - 11/6--42.645.04.6Hatch +2.4
Star Tribune11/5 - 11/6747 LV44417Hatch +3
SurveyUSA11/3 - 11/5710 LV45451Tie
Rasmussen11/1 - 11/1500 LV47451Hatch +2
U. of Minnesota10/23 - 10/28663 LV45397Hatch +6
Zogby Interactive*10/23 - 10/27LV 4645--Hatch +1
Mason-Dixon10/23 - 10/27625 LV44437Hatch +1
St. Cloud State U.10/15 - 10/27499 LV46367Hatch +10
Rasmussen10/25 - 10/25500 LV45442Hatch +1
SurveyUSA10/21 - 10/23606 LV45442Hatch +1
Zogby Interactive*10/10 - 10/16737 LV4545--Tie
MN Star-Tribune10/6 - 10/11818 LV46374Hatch +9
Rasmussen10/4 - 10/4500 LV50462Hatch +4
SurveyUSA9/25 - 9/27616 LV44453Pawlenty +1
Zogby Interactive*9/19 - 9/25718 LV44436Hatch +1
Mason-Dixon9/18 - 9/20625 LV394211Pawlenty +3
U. of Minnesota9/13 - 9/181023 LV44425Hatch +2
Star Tribune9/13 - 9/15820 LV42425Tie
Zogby Interactive*8/29 - 9/5n/a 424115Hatch +1
Rasmussen8/28 - 8/28500 LV39458Pawlenty +6
Gallup8/23 - 8/27790 LV44435Hatch +1
Zogby Interactive*8/15 - 8/21n/a 434112Hatch +2
Rasmussen8/1 - 8/1500 LV364612Pawlenty +10
SurveyUSA7/21 - 7/23616 RV36506Pawlenty +14
Star Tribune7/6 - 7/11813 LV41438Pawlenty +2
Rasmussen6/25 - 6/25500 LV47427Hatch +5
Rasmussen4/27 - 4/27500 LV45439Hatch +2
Rasmussen2/20 - 2/20500 LV454210Hatch +3
Rasmussen1/16 - 1/16500 LV434210Hatch +1
Rasmussen12/14 - 12/14500 LV48419Hatch +7